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Thanks nwalton it was the Joel.
Frenchy yes you are correct I forgot Hawkbill was beaten in this as well and Jack Hobbs went on to flop at Royal Ascot although it appears as though something was wrong with Jack Hobbs after his Sheema Classic he wasn’t the same horse full stop. We’ve seen that you can still win that race and have a decent European season afterwards as Postponed did very well in his winning year so I don’t necessarily buy into being prepped to win that meaning you won’t do much afterwards in Europe. There are lots of unknowns I suppose!
I’m not sure about AVD it didn’t feel like the strongest Derby at the time with so many being so close and you’d say the subsequent form has proved as much so far at least. They obviously felt he had more to offer at 4 otherwise surely they’d have retired him being a another Derby winning son of Galileo, the same can’t be said for Broome and Sir Dragonet who had pretty light 3 year old campaigns and haven’t got the same CV. The only thing in the back of my mind is he did run pretty well out America in the Breeders Cup and if top of the ground is important to him you could excuse one or two of his lesser efforts last season, maybe that is why he’s been kept in training and they are working long term towards America again.
RE Ghaiyyath – It feels a bit like the situation we had last year with Benbatl when he ran in the Group 2 I can’t remember which one it was now and a few of us were questioning who he’d managed to beat up to that point to get his lofty rating. I took him on and he bolted up. I think Ghaiyyath might get a soft lead here in the absence of Communique and on quick ground at Newmarket he could be hard to peg back if he is on a going day. For all that I’ve never really warmed to him and unless he wins by miles in what isn’t a strong renewal of this he’ll still have to go some way to justify the rating for me and I’d continue to take him on against loftier opposition. Old Persian was another who had a somewhat questionable rating from his time in Dubai when he ran in this last year and he wasn’t great but maybe he didn’t like Epsom
Interested to see how Broome goes but some of the comments RE his absence have made me think twice about backing him at this stage of the season, gently does it a long way to go and all that. I think quick ground in this smallish field may not suit anyway as he looks a strong staying sort. Doyle is just about the best spare ride going so no complaints on that score if I was parting cash.
Stradivarius surely won’t be having a hard race here he’s got less than a 2 week gap to his Gold Cup defence I might be tempted to lay him.
This will be Communique’s cup final without doubt, the minute they moved it to Newmarket it became the best and possibly only chance he’ll have of winning a Group 1. If you were on him you’d be hoping the King Power entered runner doesn’t line up because De Sousa is very important to Communique, he’s been on board for all bar one of his career wins and he is contracted to King Power first and foremost. The other thing is if Ghaiyaath lined up I’d be a little bit concerned Communique might get into a battle for a lead he won’t win which would be detrimental to his chances.
The other problem is this could well be the cup final for all three of Aidan O’Brien’s entries. For me they all need 12F at least and they won’t be good enough to win a King George which is the only other Group 1 over 12F here or in Ireland. They might all run here and the Hardwicke but that is only a Group 2 and Ascot will lose a lot of the prestige of owning winners when the owners won’t be physically there this year. There will be a lot of focus on horses needing the run and using the early races as preps but like I say what is Aidan prepping them for there isn’t much else suitable, if he can get them ready I’d expect them to be ready to win this.
If they ran and dependent on who Aidan can get to ride them assuming his Irish based riders will be staying at home I’d be interested in Broome and Sir Dragonet who for my money are no worse than Anthony Van Dyck.
I’ve taken a chance Regal Reality’s run on York soft ground in the York Stakes which can be a bit of an outlier as soft ground goes anyway is an exception to his ability which he showed in the Eclipse and to a slightly lesser extent Juddmonte. If I take my view Magical had a tough race at Longchamp which I have to do if I believe he can win, he’s got three fillies and Addeybb in front of him in the market and in my opinion we haven’t seen the best of him yet, particularly when you factor in who his trainer is. He would prefer better ground of course but this inner track isn’t nearly as bad as the straight track will be and he’s a great each-way price for me given this is a shockingly bad renewal.
I’d be keen to take her on myself she went out like a light pretty quickly in the Arc which I’ve never seen her do before and she’s had a long enough season, this would be her 9th start. Couple that with the fact O’Brien has never won this race which I was surprised by, probably testament to him prioritising other races over it.
No idea what I’d be taking her on with as yet Addeybb is obvious enough but hides no secrets in the market now.
The one who immediately looks the wrong price is Regal Reality irrespective of whether the beaten Arc horses show up but I did read somewhere that this was a target but they wouldn’t run him on soft and that is almost certainly playing a part in him being 40/1 with Betfair/Paddy Power. Probably one to monitor once we have a clearer picture of weather forecasts that week.
I think they need to retire her rather than looking at Ascot or America she put everything into that big kick to go clear of the field and Waldgeist has had to switch round Japan and Sottsass and still got there comfortably, in the end Japan and Sottsass are coming back at her at the line she was treading water big time and I’d hate to see her get turned over again before the seasons out, you suspect this would have taken a lot out of her given she’s had pretty easy wins this season bar the King George.
Walgeist is a very good horse at Longchamp always has been and on reflection was a little unlucky last year. I hope and suspect O’Brien keeps Japan in training and goes for this next year I think the best is to come from him and he ran a race full of promise having to come very wide on the home turn, maybe he could do a Dylan Thomas and win the race at 4.
I wouldn’t be having a bet in the race personally as I rarely do with 2 year olds but the way the track was riding yesterday with 4 of the 7 winners pretty much making all (they may have been the best in the race anyway), I wouldn’t be in a hurry to lay Mum’s Tipple because that’s basically what he did at York and Ascot and even ignoring the level of opposition from York the form with Molatham from Ascot is working out very well. Should be a cracking race.
Is it just me or has the race really cut up I didn’t expect to see 3 year olds rated in the 80’s make it and thats reflected in the tiny field for the Silver Cambridgeshire.
Struggling to see why Korcho is 40 & 50’s in places on his run in the 3YO July Course handicap earlier in the season and yet Good Birthday and Majestic Dawn from the same race who I do like are priced much much shorter. Nicola Currie is an underated jockey imo and Hughie Morrison an excellent trainer who obviously has a bigger fancy in Le Don De Vie but a lively one here too.
Little Jo Jo is a fascinating one for Brian Ellison who should probably have won the Silver version last year and Ellison is something of a target race trainer notably winning the Greatwood with Neitzche last year but off the track for a year doesn’t smack me as a plot, especially as he said the horse looked fantastic and no mention of any issues in his Sporting Life stable tour back in May, presumably somethings gone amiss along the way but I can’t find out what anywhere.
Just Korcho for me for now.
I know others don’t like some of the stuff you write Potato but I do admire your enthusiasm and confidence in the horses you back. You stick to your guns and don’t sit on the fence and I applaud you for that.
I’d agree with your assessments of Anna Nerium, Pogo and UAE Jewel. My initial thought was the same as you on Zaaki but I changed my mind so you could be correct on that one as well.
I appreciate that you don’t particularly rate King Of Comedy and again fair play for sticking to your guns on that one but the fact is that Happy Power is also only a Listed winner and much more exposed than King Of Comedy. He was beaten in a terrible Group 2 last time which was a lot weaker than the Joel Stakes will be. There’s no way he should be a shorter price than King Of Comedy.
One of Benbatl’s Group 1 wins is very good form – the Dubai Turf win which as you pointed out Deidre was 3rd a long way back. His other 2 Group 1’s without going too deep into the form had Blair House (a very good handicapper when last seen on these shores) and Stormy Antarctic (literally a Group 2 horse at his best and only a Group 3 winner over here) as his runners up. They are not strong Group 1’s hence why I don’t believe he’s a 123 horse for all ratings are largely meaningless but that level of form might be good enough in what is a Group 2.
He had a very good early season in Dubai in 2018 but he didn’t go back this year to defend his crown and that would bother me if I wanted to back him, why has he not been seen in almost a year? Good luck with him Potato I couldn’t be backing anything in what is a small field with changeable weather and no obvious pace angle into the race. One to watch and savour. Well done on the antepost 8/1 with 3 places by the way should at least guarantee something from the place part.
I think you could legitimately speculate how King Of Comedy may not handle the Rowley Mile particularly well, he’s not exactly looked the most straightforward for all his talent but he might handle it enough baring in mind he’s looked a Group 1 winner in waiting and this is a Group 2.
I think Zaaki’s a very decent horse and his rating underestimates him, he’s achieved more than Skardu or Happy Power who are rated higher than him in my opinion. If you set Goodwood aside where I expressed doubts about him beforehand on the sharp downhill 7F trip (he was less than impressive at Epsom despite winning) and the race was a real messy affair, set that run aside then he’s 3 from 4 this season and the only defeat came at the hands of the Queen Anne runner-up Beat The Bank who won this race in 2017. Mustashry won this last year for Sir Michael Stoute and he’d have had a similar profile to Zaaki heading into the race last year. Some of Zaaki’s form looks better now than it did at the time – Space Traveller was beaten in the Strensall Stakes and has won the Boomerang since, Suedois was behind him and Beat The Bank in the Summer Mile and won the Supreme Stakes at Goodwood since etc… He’d need King Of Comedy to significantly under perform I grant you but it’s not beyond the realms of possibility. You wouldn’t want to see much rain this week I suppose for Zaaki looking at his form.
I can’t believe Benbatl’s rating
if you set aside what he did in Dubai in 2018 there’s really not much substance to what he’s achieved for a horse carrying that sort of a number and you’d have to wonder why Bin Suroor would keep him off since last October to bring him back in tip top shape for a Group 2 in September. Not for me personally.I’ve been very impressed by UAE Jewel and although this is a massive step up in Grade he does fall under that could be anything mantra and he’s a course and distance winner but it’s a bit of a concern he’s been off since May himself, haven’t heard much about him in the interim, has anyone else?
Embour struck me as being a bit overpriced at 33’s and 25’s for 7 places with SkyBet, slowly away in the Portland and staying on nicely, wasn’t far behind Arecibo yet he’s a much bigger price. Should enjoy the ground and a fast pace to aim at.
I don’t think there’s much between Major Jumbo and Hey Jonesy on ability and while Major Jumbo’s been consistent this season and hasn’t got any slack from the handicapper, Hey Jonesy has slipped a bit and gets 5lb from his stablemate. He’s had a little break as raymo pointed out and he’s first time visor which could help. 25’s seems fair to me. There’s a good amount of pace across the field but a really key pocket of it could be drawn low – Justanotherbottle and Soliders Minute are next door in 2 & 3 and this fella isn’t far away in 8. Could be a key dual.
FWIW Arecibo is the one I fear most being a course winner and gets to race off his old mark of 98 when he went close in Portland off 100 but what put me off was even though he has won over 6F in France I thought he had every chance in the Portland and didn’t see his effort through off a well run 5.5F, I can’t see the extra half furlong being a help in that sense unless they hold onto him longer.
Having backed Admirality for the Bunbury Cup off this mark at a very similar price to his generally available 14’s here I’d be kicking myself if I didn’t follow him in again here off top weight if he wins.
Venturous is a nice one at 33’s VTC I backed him at big prices in the Stewards Cup consolation where he went close and this looks a similar opportunity, unfortunately I can only get 20’s with my Bookmakers so I’ll let him go for now unless he drifted out.
I thought everything looked wrong on paper here for Lincoln Park judged by his form over 7F on softer ground but Oisin Murphy really catches the eye as a jockey booking and I can see him blazing out and trying to make it a real test from the front from Stall 7 and he might just outrun his odds.
I thought it was a very weak renewal as well Kris the two Johnston horses are tough as nails but have ultimately progressed through handicaps to being Group 3 winning horses and I suspect that’s as good as they’ll ever be. Sir Dragonet the only plausible class angle to take Logician on with blatantly didn’t stay. Take nothing away from the winner who won with any amount in hand but for me he’s not needed to improve on what he achieved in the Voltigeur. A bit early for talking about Arc’s and King George’s for me personally, lets see how he trains on next year and what the 3 year old generation looks like.
This isn’t a strong renewal with Magical the only G1 winner in open company albeit that was a very windy looking Tatersalls Gold Cup. She does look a worthy favourite but she does have a similar profile to Found and like Found she might find a progressive 3 year old (Almanzor in the case of Found) too much to handle.
The only one who could match that profile here would be Headman who is probably a better horse than Decorated Knight who won this for Roger Charlton, not yet better than Al Kazeem who was beaten twice in this but in fairness he’s a better horse than Al Kazeem was at the end of his 3 year old season. He’s a horrible price mind you on what he’s achieved, as mentioned by others the French form generally is up for debate and the fact is he’s done his Group race winning in France not here or in Ireland.
I like Madhmoon and suspect we haven’t seen the best of him yet but the facts are he’s finished behind Antony Van Dyck in both Derby’s this year and the price discrepancy there looks wrong between those two.
Deidre was 20/1 for the Nassau which is a much weaker race than this and she’s never won against the boys in her career. She shouldn’t be so short imo.
12/1 about a Derby winner seems pretty big to me. I wouldn’t disagree it was a very weak Derby which granted more time you suspect Japan and Sir Dragonet would have finished in front of Antony Van Dyck but as mentioned he’s finished ahead of Madhmoon twice this year and you could make excuses for him in the King George – the ground, chasing a very strong pace and possibly the headgear not working out. He was only 7/1 for that behind Enable and Crystal Ocean.
Did Elarqam really need to improve significantly to finish where he did in the Juddmonte? We know Crystal Ocean didn’t run his race, how far below his best he was we can’t be certain. That’s quite important because if Magical runs anywhere near her form he’s got to improve again and has he got that in him at the age of 5? What we do know is Elarqam has shown a liking for York (won twice from four) and he was very disappointing when sent off favourite for the Irish 2000 Guineas the last time he travelled over. I’m very sceptical of him personally at this level, granted he’s a fine Group 2 horse.
Magic Wand and Hunting Horn simply cannot win this.
With all that in mind on my own summary I’ll back AVD for a point to win at 12/1 and stick a couple of points on him at a shade over even money in the additional place market. I can’t have him out of the first 4.
if you set aside what he did in Dubai in 2018 there’s really not much substance to what he’s achieved for a horse carrying that sort of a number and you’d have to wonder why Bin Suroor would keep him off since last October to bring him back in tip top shape for a Group 2 in September. Not for me personally.