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Thanks nwalton it was the Joel.
Frenchy yes you are correct I forgot Hawkbill was beaten in this as well and Jack Hobbs went on to flop at Royal Ascot although it appears as though something was wrong with Jack Hobbs after his Sheema Classic he wasn’t the same horse full stop. We’ve seen that you can still win that race and have a decent European season afterwards as Postponed did very well in his winning year so I don’t necessarily buy into being prepped to win that meaning you won’t do much afterwards in Europe. There are lots of unknowns I suppose!
I’m not sure about AVD it didn’t feel like the strongest Derby at the time with so many being so close and you’d say the subsequent form has proved as much so far at least. They obviously felt he had more to offer at 4 otherwise surely they’d have retired him being a another Derby winning son of Galileo, the same can’t be said for Broome and Sir Dragonet who had pretty light 3 year old campaigns and haven’t got the same CV. The only thing in the back of my mind is he did run pretty well out America in the Breeders Cup and if top of the ground is important to him you could excuse one or two of his lesser efforts last season, maybe that is why he’s been kept in training and they are working long term towards America again.
It would be dangerous to look into overall form lines too much, with the unusual year we are having its all about very early season form of horses in the past and what trainers you think will have their horses at their peak first time this year. That’s why I went for AVD, early season form last season very good before it tailed off and trainer quote recently said “he’s doing everything right at home”. The favourite will be hard to beat with an uncontested lead if he handles the dip and he goes best fresh too but it was a price thing with me. Defoe won this but had runs previously but one for the shortlist nonetheless. A prep for Stradivarius with Ascot only 2 weeks ago so he will be looked after to an extent.
Overall an interesting little race.
I think Stradivarius is going to run a lot bigger race than most here seem to think.
If Ghaiyaath were to flop then I would fully expect Stradivarius to take advantage.Stradivarius has never in his entire career been beaten in a group 1 race he is 6/6 at this level.
He won first time up as a 3yo,4yo and 5yo.
Although it’s the staying division he has dominated and many may think he will be vulnerable at this trip ultimately as a son of Sea Of Stars he is bred for exactly this trip and I wouldn’t assume he isn’t going to be highly effective at this distance.
Had Gosden not have had enable then maybe Stradivarius would never have been targeted at the staying races and he may have won multiple group 1s over 1m 4f.
The horse is a winner and doesn’t know how to run a bad race.
Just because this race isn’t the main target does not mean he won’t be extremely dangerous here.I haven’t backed anything yet but will probably back Ghaiyaath as I think he will win though I do highly respect Stradivarius. I would imagine that Gosden will be hoping that Stradivarius goes for his 3rd Ascot Gold Cup off the back of a win rather than a defeat.
Robbo, i’d actually agree with you there.
He’s record fresh is very good + if it wasn’t for the wealth of options in the stable i wouldn’t be surprised if he’d have been in an Arc already.
I suppose it depends on the pace of the race, they can’t let Ghaiyyath have an easy time of it up front at a slow pace.
I’m not convinced the 3yos last year were up to much obviously they could improve for another year. Hard race, and one i won’t be betting.
*editing to say this is very similar to your post Robbo, i didn’t see yours
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I’m not saying Stradivarius can’t run well. He is a lovely horse but I think he has a main target to aim at next whereas for others it’s more of a cup final. His grade 1 wins have been 2 miles and further. His last win over 12f was 3 years ago in a class 3 handicap. It won’t be easy having run over extreme distances to pop up over 12 furlongs first time in a grade 1 and win as he has been trained the last few years as a stayer. Back at 14f he has coped in grade 2s. To me he is a bit too short in price over this trip and if he did win it may be that 1 or 2 will have underperformed.
Just my opinion.
I think we’ve managed to put a pretty good case up for most of them again!
If the rest underperform a bit, Strad can win for sure, I’m a big fan of his and he does have a turn of foot, he’s not a slow stayer horse. I just think once the going gets tough in the final 2/3 furlongs, as long as some others perform, they won’t go hard on him. Sure they’d like to win but ultimately I don’t think they give a stuff compared to winning the Gold Cup again.
For Ghaiyyath, Defoe and AVD, this is likely to be a targeted race to win.
I’ll add some weight to the AVD shout.
1. He was a very good 2year old, campaigned over shorter distances than he prefers because AOB ran out of options at 7F.
2. He won the derby, having got checked in the straight. It wasn’t the best renewal, but we don’t know whether he would not have won by 3 lengths had he a straight forward passage.
2. Horses flopping after winning the derby is not unusual and he needs decent/fast ground to be at his best, so we can draw a line through the Ascot run anyway.
3. He came back to form with a place in the Irish Champions Stakes over a distance shorter than is likely his ideal.
4. On proper fast ground in Santa Anita in a race likely to be run slower than ideal he was beginning to motor in the straight and was badly checked and lost all chance. Still finished 3rd. I’m convinced he would’ve won or gone very close.
5. The Hong Kong run can be easily written off as one too many in a long travelling season.
If he’s fit enough, he’s outstanding value for me and I agree with you TinMan, for them to keep him in training suggests he has more to give this year, it’s a pointer in itself.
I didn’t see that AVD quote from AOB Mike, where was that in? He’s 6 on the exchanges and shortened a tiny bit this morning it looks like, just please don’t rain much….
I really like Ghaiyyath he’s really caught my imagination for some reason.
I hope he wins well, it will add alot of interest to the season.I used to love reading Nick Mordins website and he used to often write about horses who ran monster performances after a layoff. They would then underperform if they ran again too soon. Ghaiyyath seems to fit this profile very well.
It’s an interesting race for sure.
I didn’t see that AVD quote from AOB Mike, where was that in?
The quote has been published a few times online including in the Sporting Life preview last night.
“The soft ground at Ascot wasn’t the right thing to do with Anthony Van Dyck and he paid for it,” O’Brien said. “The plan would be to keep him on good ground [this year] and he’s doing everything right at the moment. I don’t know much about the mile and a half at Newmarket, but I would imagine you would need to get the trip very well.”
Stradivarius has never in his entire career been beaten in a group 1 race he is 6/6 at this level.
He was beaten in the leger.
Defoe out to the sort of price I wanted now so take some of the 5.90 off the betfair exchange
Seems a very fair price to me
Really looking forward to this and some good debate on this thread
Desert Encounter will do for me at 50/1
He’s a fair bit to find on ratings but the course was riding very fast yesterday and that will bring him closer to the front two especially. Stradivarius running a shorter distance on good to firm with the Gold Cup around the corner I just can’t have him. The favourite can put in some monster efforts and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he was too bolt up but at the prices I’d take him on. I think O’Brien’s Derby winner AVD will like the going and Varian is in good early form so Defoe comes into it.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
JG comments “Let’s be very clear, this is a trial for another crack at the Gold Cup”
I think it’s madness to go for Stradivarius, he could win, I wouldn’t be shocked, but surely people want more for their money at 7/2 in this type of race, than a horse whose trainer just confirmed is tuning him up for a different race?
I’ve had another good look at Ghaiyyath and I’m going to have a saver. AVD is worrying me in terms of market support, I thought he’d be more like 4s. RV doesn’t seem that confident in Defoe and together with the fact I think he had his day last season, that only leaves Ghaiyyath as surely Broome has too much to do you would think after such a long layoff.
It’s very possible, Ghaiyyath at 5 is now the finished article, certainly, CA said exactly that and if you take 2 runs out of his form, it reads 3111111, recording RPRs of 126 and 128 (against no-one granted).
His 2 bad runs are quite easily forgivable actually, it was too short a distance in the Prix Ganay in a hot Grp1 and the Arc was run in a bog.
So I’m hoping AVD is fit and well and still confident if he is, but having a saver on Ghaiyyath which I think must be a sensible play.
AVD 6/1 Main bet
Ghaiyyath 11/8 SaverI’m going to do a reverse forecast on Ghaiyaath and Stradivarius.
I can’t remember the last time I did a forecast bet but I think these 2 will be clear of the field. I think Ghaiyaath is by far and away the likeliest winner but think Stradivarius will be coming hard at him at the business end.
I shouldve waited on defoe it seems, but I’m playing golf today so no chance to watch the markets so felt it was sensible to just put it on last might
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