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It’s good to get an angle right from Japan Kiseki, I am probably going to take a bit of the 14s on offer over here as I think that’s overpriced. Someone tipped me her in the Nassau and ignored it, so was kicking myself. I think she must have an EW chance at least and 14s seems too big.
Magical is my main bet but I will have a last look through this morning
Not surprised Headman is drifting over here as 7/2 was a silly price, he was always going to drift out from that.
I’d take the price in Japan though!
This isn’t a strong renewal with Magical the only G1 winner in open company albeit that was a very windy looking Tatersalls Gold Cup. She does look a worthy favourite but she does have a similar profile to Found and like Found she might find a progressive 3 year old (Almanzor in the case of Found) too much to handle.
The only one who could match that profile here would be Headman who is probably a better horse than Decorated Knight who won this for Roger Charlton, not yet better than Al Kazeem who was beaten twice in this but in fairness he’s a better horse than Al Kazeem was at the end of his 3 year old season. He’s a horrible price mind you on what he’s achieved, as mentioned by others the French form generally is up for debate and the fact is he’s done his Group race winning in France not here or in Ireland.
I like Madhmoon and suspect we haven’t seen the best of him yet but the facts are he’s finished behind Antony Van Dyck in both Derby’s this year and the price discrepancy there looks wrong between those two.
Deidre was 20/1 for the Nassau which is a much weaker race than this and she’s never won against the boys in her career. She shouldn’t be so short imo.
12/1 about a Derby winner seems pretty big to me. I wouldn’t disagree it was a very weak Derby which granted more time you suspect Japan and Sir Dragonet would have finished in front of Antony Van Dyck but as mentioned he’s finished ahead of Madhmoon twice this year and you could make excuses for him in the King George – the ground, chasing a very strong pace and possibly the headgear not working out. He was only 7/1 for that behind Enable and Crystal Ocean.
Did Elarqam really need to improve significantly to finish where he did in the Juddmonte? We know Crystal Ocean didn’t run his race, how far below his best he was we can’t be certain. That’s quite important because if Magical runs anywhere near her form he’s got to improve again and has he got that in him at the age of 5? What we do know is Elarqam has shown a liking for York (won twice from four) and he was very disappointing when sent off favourite for the Irish 2000 Guineas the last time he travelled over. I’m very sceptical of him personally at this level, granted he’s a fine Group 2 horse.
Magic Wand and Hunting Horn simply cannot win this.
With all that in mind on my own summary I’ll back AVD for a point to win at 12/1 and stick a couple of points on him at a shade over even money in the additional place market. I can’t have him out of the first 4.
I had to top up on Headman at 11/2. That was a crazy price in my viewm Now the big money is starting to come. Could still go off favourite. Potentially the best 10f horse to carry these colours since Frankel.
Its wonderful to see that Charlton and Abdullah have the faith in 19yo jockey Jason Watson to put him on this special racehorse today.
Jason comes into this race having NEVER ridden a winner at group 1,2,3 level (0/18) He has also NEVER ridden a listed winner (0/20).Abdullah and Cecil famously kept faith in the struggling jockey Tom Queally with Frankel even when the public were demanding the horse be ridden by a higher profile jockey. Thats called loyalty and they were rewarded.
Abdullah must be praised for allowing the 19yo to ride this in the group 1 today and not getting rid of him for a more experienced big race jockey. Same for Charlton, he has a recent record of 4 wins from 4 turf races in ireland to defend today.
Well done to connections for showing faith in this young man.
Watson rode headman in both his group 2 wins potato
Thats correct Final Furlong. The same as Kevin Stott had ridden HELLO YOUZMAIN for both of his group 2 wins before being shown zero loyalty and gotten rid of when he went into group 1 company.
Which surely is what my post is about?
“Abdullah must be praised for allowing the 19yo to ride this in the group 1 today and not getting rid of him for a more experienced big race jockey.”
They wouldnt have had the option of getting rid of him had he not already been on board. They would also be unable to be called loyal had Jason not previously been doing the business on him.
Jason comes into this race having NEVER ridden a winner at group 1,2,3 level (0/18) He has also NEVER ridden a listed winner (0/20).
You specifically said this race
Hence my comment
Guess you just worded that part wrong, my bad
“Abdullah must be praised for allowing the 19yo to ride this in the group 1 today and not getting rid of him for a more experienced big race jockey.”
They wouldnt have had the option of getting rid of him had he not already been on board. They would also be unable to be called loyal had Jason not previously been doing the business on him.
The 0/18 is only using GB and Ireland stats. I have no access to worldwide stats and as stated by I believe yourself and others the french form is apparently weak.
Ultimately the point I was making (which appears to have been completely missed) is these connectiona understand what loyalty is.
Not stated by me
“Headman could be anything
Good luck potato
They went a crawl in his last race, this should suit him much better
Has a lot to find with the principals but is on an upward curve
At worst you have a horse to follow for next season
Him and sangarius are two horses I’m very much hoping to see a lot as 4yos”
Big fan of headman and he did well to win last time as he was held up in a muddling race
This should be run much quicker and suit his run style well
as I stated earlier in the thread I just didnt see any value in his price at the time I had my bet
I can see magical and elarqam getting at it slightly too early then getting picked off by a closer like madhmoon or headman
Magical will be tough to beat though if she gets a smooth run through
Potato the accuracy of your posts in question again I see
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I do apologise Final Furlong. I probably was mistaken as I tend to group yourself, Jack, Frenchy, Ginger and Ham as one unity.
Ie twenty somethings obsessed with trying to make out almost every point I say as ridiculous and desperately jumping on any opportunity to try and convince all who read of my overwhelming stupidity and cluelessness on all things racing.
Good job on taking the time to go through the entire thread and copying and pasting all of your comments. Top stuff.
Now enough of the games and back to the racing.
HEADMAN TO LEAVE THEM FOR DEAD MAN
I’ve talked myself into backing AVD as a main bet with Magical and leaving Deidre alone. Probably a bet more with my heart but you could make decent excuses for both the last 2 races, especially the last one which you can draw a line through surely. 10F should be right up his street so I’ve settled on the two.
Magical 7/4
AVD 12/1 EWCan understand Potato’s point about connections being loyal to Watson. However, Watson is imo a considerably better (more consistent) jockey than Stott. Better strike rate and ran to form stats despite Stott being based more in the less competitive North… Watson is one of the very best younger jockeys, would not surprise me if getting a top job – maybe when Frankie retires?
Value Is EverythingMagical has no Enable or Crystal Ocean here and running in her back yard. Take those top, top horses out and what would be her form figures? May be favourite but imo is still under-rated by some/the market.
Anthony Van Dyck may look a big price considering is the Derby winner, beating Mahdmoon and is a lot bigger price than that one here. But wasn’t a good Derby, AVD has had plenty of racing so probably one of the least likely to improve, ran poorly last time out and most importantly coming back in trip is unlikely to suit. Mahdmoon may well be better than able to show at Epsom, possibly making his move a little early especially as 12f tests his stamina. Disappointed in Irish Derby but won his confidence booster since. Back to 10f could show him to best advantage here.
Crystal Ocean was below his best last time, but even taking him out Elarqam wasn’t beaten far by Japan. If reproducing that form probably has the second best chance here. But one of his worst performances came on only previous start in Ireland (Irish 2000).
Headman is better than shown so far and one of the best looking horses you’ll see (sope to improve in to his considerable frame). Wouldn’t be surprised if he’s the best of these next year. However, needs to progress quite a bit in one go to beat a top form Magical.
Magical Wand and Hunting Horn are exposed as below the very best, will surely need pace of the race to favour them to figure today.
One I like at a biggish price is the Japanese, Deirdre. Could argue flattered in beating the too aggressively ridden Mehdaayih in the Nassau; but no fluke in beating the rest fairly easily. One that could pick up the pieces if they again go too fast. Not gone in yet for Deirdre, these Japanese horses can drift.So far backed Magical 15/8 with saver on Mahdmoon 6/1.
Value Is EverythingCan understand Potato’s point about connections being loyal to Watson. However, Watson is imo a considerably better (more consistent) jockey than Stott. Better strike rate and ran to form stats despite Stott being based more in the less competitive North… Watson is one of the very best younger jockeys, would not surprise me if getting a top job – maybe when Frankie retires?
I subscribe to John Whitley’s speed figures and he also compiles jockey efficiency ratings. Kevin Stott was #1 according to his data crunching of all UK jockeys in 2018. Personally I don’t rate Watson anything near as highly as you – needs to get stronger and more consistent. It’ll come though, could well be one of the top 10 jockeys in time.
tbh LS3, Kevin Stott was higher in my estimation in previous years – ie better than the average jockey (better than most jockeys). On Timeform stats actually made a profit to a £ stake in both 2016 (small) and 2017 extremely small) and only a small loss in 2018 – compared to most jockeys big loss. So imo Stott’s ability is (or should that be “was”?) better than what most punters thought of him. However, both strike rate and £ loss have taken a dramatic turn for the worse in 2019. Therefore, now he’s imo average (which is not meant as a derogitory term; meaning just as many worse than him as better).
Value Is Everything
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