- This topic has 93 replies, 15 voices, and was last updated 6 years, 8 months ago by
.
- Posts
Manipulating trends to suit ones argument is a definition of cutting your nose off to spite your face. It’s a losing strategy for sure. Trends and Statistics are all about probability and likelyhood. The art of using them in racing is to spot the strong trends vs weak trends and also spot when they are changing. It’s kept me in profit for 3 years anyway, so it’s a formula I am happy with.
It can never be an exact science obviously and statistics never are otherwise we’d all make a killing and bookmakers wouldn’t last very long.
The probability of Headman winning on Saturday is not 7/2. Can he win? Yes. Any horse can win.
Found was beaten in 5 consecutive races leading up to the arc win and was in decline (official handicappers view-she started season rated 120 went into the arc rated 118). When I looked through her form then posted I hadnt realised that the win she had in october was the arc due to it being run at Chantilly that year and it never clicked with me quickly brushing through the form that was in fact the arc.
A horse cannot make 100% max effort for 10 group races in a season. She probably wasnt trying for some of those defeats in the build up and they were in fact racecourse training exercises. Thats probably why she was able to win the arc having had so many runs.
As for AOB not being concerned about protecting his horses well being
…well please feel free to give up some examples.Its not a case of not being concerned for the horses wellbeing. I would say its more a case of the operation and the money coming first before the wellbeing of the horse. That doesnt mean he doesnt care about the horse it just means it isnt number 1 priority.
You only have to look at the upcoming leopardstown meeting where he is throwing multiple horses at every race. These in the main arent targeted and planned moves he is literally just throwing as many as he can at as many races in the hope some will win and some probably will.
He consistently throws as many horses as he can at top races. Its about numbers and winning. Welfare isnt the defining factor in these decisions.The Coolmore horses are amongst the most pampered horses in the world
I dont doubt this for one minute whilst the horses have potential to make money and win races im sure they are treated like kings.
How about the ones they breed that turn out to have no ability whatsoever and never even make the racecourse or the ones that race for a while and achiece nothinf.Are these ones allowed to stay in the luxurious stables being pampered like kings?
Take off the rose coloured specs they are sold to whoever will buy them. Some may end up living in squalor, some may get abused. Do you think coolmore are following up on the horses wellbeing after they have been ditched? Of course they are not. Im not suggesting Aiden is doing anything wrong and ultimately They are a money making business not a horse welfare charity. Thats fine but dont live in some fantasy bubble that all horses are treated the same. The top ones are treated like kings the useless runs are got rid of with no follow up checks from coolmore pf there wellbeing in there new homea. Simple as that dont kid yourself otherwise.
For everyone that makes the grade and lives in luxury there are many many more who wont live lives of luxury.this, you only have to look at the career of Minding who ran 7 Group 1 races in her 3yo career culminating with winning the QE11 Stakes and retired after an injury sustained after her G2 Mooresbridge Stakes win her first race back as a 4yo, now does that sound like a trainer who isn’t concerned with protecting a horses long term well being.
Interesting one. What can over racing do to horses (its exactly the same as humans; again ask any athletics coach if you doubt it). Over racing greatly increases the chance of injury.
Minding ran in 7 group 1 races in a 6 month period. She had her break ce back and got injured.
There is a very high chance that had she not have been so overly raced as a 3yo then she wouldnt have got injured. The effects of too much racing weakens the body and makes future injury more likely.
So you have a 4yo who is not even a fully developed adult yet but can no longer race.
Aiden retired her because he could no longer make money out of her as a racehorse not because he is some kind of animal loving saint.
The only reason she is allowed to stay at coolmore in luxury is because she will potentially be a highly profitable dam and make the operation lots of money.
If she has any problem with concieving and is unable to produce offspring she will be kicked out of coolmore faster than you can imagine.
Coolmore is a money making operation not a welfare one. The ones they kick out for not being good enough and even the ones who were a huge success but cant produce offspring. do you think Saint Aiden and the coolmore boys go to visit them in their new homes to make sure they are looked after as they are so caring?
Of course not. its all about the money and thats fine but dont kid yoursaelf it isnt.
Another week another thread full of mistakes and guesses from Potato then! At least you keep the threads busy and full of debate. Even if it in general full of replies to daft comments from one.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Potato not having any rose coloured specs or living in a fantasy bubble, I doubt anyone of us here are in anyway kidding themselves or are naive about the dark side of horse racing.
I try to help in a small way by supporting an ex racehorse at Hillside Animal Sanctuary Norfolk and the Retraining of Racehorses which do a great job with those horses lucky enough to train for other careers and find new homes but I know that these are the few and it is a great concern about the poor soles who never make it to the track and more transparency is so badly needed here.
You could start a whole new Thread Potato if you wanted to discuss animal welfare, its been done a good few times over the years and it gets very lively.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Time to get back to the race I think, noticed Magical had another entry for Sunday in the Moyglare let’s hope they all turn up.
At least Elarqam is guaranteed a run.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Good on you Triptych for helping a worthy cause.
I dont think I will start a thread on the topic though may search the old one and have a read.
I would be interested in a topic about drugs in racing. Not horse drugs but thr use of illegal drugs by jockeys etc however I would be worried about getting sued so I am avoiding that one.
I think Magical will definitely come to this race and not the Moyglare as her full sister Rhodendron came here and did beat a horse with her 6th of 7 finish.
All sounds from Aiden suggest its almost certain she comes here though you never know and plans can change last minute.
She would surely stand a better chance against her own sex.Oh I see there is another race with a similar name
That is a group 2 no chance she runs there
And looking at my timeform app she isnt in it anymore anyway
Thanks Potato …he’s called Soul Train ex Dermot Weld horse by Singspeil out of a Bering mare ..one of the lucky ones he will live out his days peacefully loved and cared for. 
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I’ll be interested to see the odds in Japan (JRA starts accepting wagers Saturday morning Japan time) although I’m sure Deirdre will be the second favorite behind Magical. Probably 4 or 5 to 1. Which means I’ll have to bet against her. If only I could avail myself of one of your bookmakers in the UK…I may take on Magical with Headman. It’s a big ask but he’s truly looked impressive. I can’t say the same for Madhmoon. Yes, based on his run in the Derby this might be the ideal distance – but there’s no guarantee of that. He might not truly impress beyond a mile. So Anthony seems to have better value here. Will definitely try some exotic bets with Magical, Headman and Anthony.
5/1 available now on Headman with non runner no bet and best odds guaranteed.
Im stuck on 7/2 and if it gets pulled then the team are culled.
I think it will go of of much shorter but hardly the point. MJs beubg backed amd Magical holding strong.
Its one of the seasons great races and I am looking forward to it. As such I feel it would be somewhat bad taste to not rhyme.
ITS 2 FURLONGS OUT IN THE CHAMPION STAKES
WHAT IS THAT SOUND? IS IT AN EARTHQUAKE?
ANTHONYS STOPPING HE WENT TOO SOON
THE SAME LOOKS TRUE FOR HAMDAMS MADMHOON
THE OUTSIDERS ARE DONE AND HEADMAN IS MUCH TOO FAR BACK
1 FURLONG TO GO AND ITS JIM AGAINST RYAN
BUT TAKE A LOOK AT THE BACK ITS HEADMAN HES FLYINGJASON WATSON JUST ADJUSTED HIS GLASSES
AND HERE COMES THE LINE MAGICAL AND ELARQAM HANDED THEIR ASSES
Jim Crowley is on fire, confidence is sky high and I can see him getting the very best out of Elarqam but you can’t knock Magical really. 2nd to the best racehorse in the world twice and gallant in defeat to Crystal Ocean, I feel she deserves another moment in the sun.
I like Headman but I am sceptical of the races he has won, this will be his first real acid test of the season and I wouldn’t dismiss his chances.
Magical & Logician on the double for me at 5/1 is fair game. Viel Gluck!
Got to stick with Magical for this.
And also an EW on a horse with more G1 starts than Enable despite being a year younger, and having placed in half of them. She has raced in 5 countries on 3 continents and of the six G1 starts where she didn’t place, two were over 12f with soft in the going description and two were late last summer when the some of the stable were under a cloud.
Come tomorrow she will have raced in 15 months out of 18, her longest break being 84 days in the winter.She’s as tough as nails and if it’s 13th time lucky in G1 company for
Magic Wand at 28/1
no horse will deserve it moreAs much as i’ve said it’s Magical’s to lose. I’ll be backing Madhmoon e/w- she’s probably better over further and with more ease.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Great race in prospect and, as he has the profile of a horse that could win this, I can’t leave out Madhmoon and have him EW and in the forecast with my main hope ELARQAM
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Headman currently 19/1 in Japan. Deirdre 4/1. I will pass on Deirdre because of the lack of value (but I think I’d definitely include her if I were getting UK odds, especially as the third place horse in trifectas, assuming those types of bets are available, because she really is world-class).
…well please feel free to give up some examples.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.