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Don’t think there is a thread on this one yet. Could be a cracking line up and race this. Magical looks solid but might take her on as I’m not really convinced she’s that good. Headman seems really short and has loads to find in this potential field, Madhmoon to me has been crying out for this trip all season, however apart from the derby run the form is very average and you could even argue the derby form with AVD and Broome very disappointing since, Japan not fit and Sir Dragonet running for only the third time.
4 of the last 5 winners came from the Juddmonte and with Japan likely heading to France and Crystal Ocean I think? not running? the Juddmonte 3rd Elarqam interests me if he gets the supplementary entry, as he would’ve gone close with a clear run there and has clearly improved and started to fulfill his promise now, but I have a questionmark about how the race will pan out as both his last 2 races have been moderate at best paces which probably suits him more I would think.
Throw in Regal Reality and King of Comedy if they declare and it’s a tough race to call with confidence at the moment, so no bets yet but very intriguing race!
Cant get away from magical and 2/1 antepost tbh is a fair shout, no japan no CO,dont really see anything else being able to run 125 in this field, in any other season she would be the standout mare, shes tough and consistent, should walk this. Might half my stake now and half on the day as shes likely going to go off evs at best
That juddmonte was rotten, CO didnt run anywhere near his mark.
I played madhmoon ante post at 8/1 thinking this trip would suit him better than japan and that magical/crystal ocean would be unlikely to run
So when obrein said magical would be his runner I had a covering bet at 3/1 on her
Had i not already played on madhmoon she would definitely have been my main bet as the rest of these have quite a bit to find with her
Headman is interesting and has been very heavily backed down from 12/1, could be anything but has plenty to find. He could be one for next year.
So madhmoon was a confident bet but my enthusiasm has lowered with magical likely to oppose
No japan confirmed
And elarqam has been supplemented
Obrein has 6 left in at this stage
Think you guys are right on Magical, looks a solid bet at 2/1 (and now 7/4 since decs), I want to take her on, but can’t find something with confidence to do it with. If that’s the case, it’s usually best to go with the fav! So, Magical it is.
Agreed Magical should be hard to beat here even with the supplementing of Elarqam. Headman potentially looks a good horse, but aren’t up to this level so at 4/1 i think he’s stinky value. Personally think even with his potential, he should be at least a e/w price in this around 13/2. Elarqam should be outright second fav.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Hard to see past Headman here and 4/1 looks a good price. He may well go off favourite on the day.
Im not betting a horse at 4/1 in an antepost market though he looks solid enough to me.
I will have a look and maybe take part if his price holds at the weekend.
Magical 2-1 here as well. Doesn’t look like there will be an ‘Enable’ type that can beat her.
I have just backed HEADMAN at 7/2.
The more I look the more I see an odds on shot. 7/2 is outrageous. This could be odds on by the weekend.
I didnt want to bet early but the price is simply too good so I had to.
Magical is a very consistent filly who has been on the go all season and doesn’t look like she’s ready to stop anytime soon so good luck to all backing her a real tough cookie
However, as always my heart is with Elarqam around 9/2, supplemented today, he should have won or been a lot closer in his last race but for meeting trouble in running and Jim Crowley couldn’t disguise the look of disappointment on his face, hope he’ll be smiling from ear to ear on Saturday..
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I really considered Elarqam, but 2 things that put me off . 1) the pace of the last 2 races was not strong and I think that suits him over 10f. AOB is sure to make a strong pace for Magical this time and 2) the comments that they said we’d have bitten your hand off had you said we’d be third in the juddmonte on the morning of the race clearly suggests they don’t think he’s that good so I suspect the run flattered him a bit. We’ll see on Saturday obviously!
Aiden O’Brien has won this race in the past though he doesnt appear to take the race as seriously in recent times as he used to.
In the last 7 runnings of the race the following Aiden O’Brien horses ran in the Irish Champion stakes:
RHEDONDRON/ATHENA/DEAUVILLE/SAXON WARRIOR/THE TAJ MAHAL/CLIFFS OF MOHER/CHURCHILL/FOUND/MINDING/HIGHLAND REEL/SIR ISAAC NEWTON/FOUND/HIGHLAND REEL/AUSTRALIA/KINGFISHER/KINGSBARNS/ST NICHOLAS ABBEY/DADDY LONGLEGS
They all got beat and many never raced again and I believe only KINGFISHSER (listed win) and ST NICHOLAS ABBEY (group 1) went on to win another race.
Its almost as if Aiden has resorted to using the race as a farewell parade giving the irish public there last chance to see some old favourites.MAGICAL won 3 races in the spring, she was evens, 2/7 and 2/9 to win those races. Although she has since twice been second to ENABLE and also 2nd to CRYSTAL OCEAN she certainly didnt give them a race and it was more a case if something had to get 2nd. Still fair form but dont be mistaken into thinking with no ENABLE and no CRYSTAL OCEAN that this is her race for the taking. It isnt…
She has had a long season, this will be her 7th group race since April. She needs a break and looking at the list of horses from Aiden who ran in this race and got beat then it could well be a permananent break to follow.
The British have absolutely dominated this race recently. Since 1988 there have been 19 british trained winners.
4 of the last 5 winners were 3yos.
The two above facts bode well for HEADMAN being both British trained and a 3yo.
HEADMAN looks an absolute beast after hacking up in a 15 runner newbury 3yo handicap on good ground he has since won 2 group 2s in France on ground softer than ideal.
This is a seriously progressive horse on a serious upward curve.There was no pace on last time in his group 2 and he was out the back, it looked impossible for him to win from that position on very soft ground (ground that he doesnt even like apparently). However he showed THE SPIRIT OF A CHAMPION and refused to lose getting up in time for a remarkable win. HEADMAN screamed ‘IMPOSSIBLE IS NOTHING’ as he made it 2 wins from 2 runs in group company.
This horse is ready to step up and win a group 1. The scary thing is that Charlton thinks this big beast of a horse will be even better next year. should get a decent pace to aim at here (especially with the Mark Johnston runmer confirmed) and it will take a monster to stop him.
Charlton does not send horses to Ireland for the sake of it. When he sends them he sends them to win.
In the last 5 years Charlton has sent 4 horses to Irelands turf. 2 to Leopardstown and to 2 Curragh.
ALL 4 HORSES WON
DOUBT HEADMAN AT YOUR PERILBEAST ALERT
ELARQAM is respected and if they supplemented him then they believe they have a chance here.
Looks heavy odds on The Irish Champion Stakes is coming back home where it belongs in Great Britain.
Headman could be anything
Good luck potato
They went a crawl in his last race, this should suit him much better
Has a lot to find with the principals but is on an upward curve
At worst you have a horse to follow for next season
Him and sangarius are two horses I’m very much hoping to see a lot as 4yos
Charlton does not send horses to Ireland for the sake of it. When he sends them he sends them to win.
In the last 5 years Charlton has sent 4 horses to Irelands turf. 2 to Leopardstown and to 2 Curragh.
This is very true, he’s a good trainer and doesn’t overface his horses I don’t think so it’s a good sign. Just think considering how bad we know French form has been at times this year, he’s not value at his current price.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Yes the current price looks as though the value is long gone
I was looking at him a few weeks ago but the 12/1 evaporated and became 6/1 very quickly so I thought madhmoon was a better price at that stage at 8/1
At worst you have a horse to follow for next season
Next season may never come? Im all about this weekend.
Just think considering how bad we know French form has been at times this year, he’s not value at his current price.
Whats this seasons french form (at times) got to do with the price of sausages.
This is a trainer who has won 123 group and listed races including 2 classics. The man knows what he has on his hands here.
7/2 is outstanding value with only Elarqam to beat. The race is ultimately a match bet between the two british trained horses and as such both represent value though Im confident ik on the right one.
You have backed a filly who is likely to be imminently retired and is merely having a day out to say goodbye to the irish public in this race.
Dont tell me I havent got value at 7/2 on the likeliest winner when youvhave backed 7/4 on a horse who is unlikely to place.
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