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Yes the current price looks as though the value is long gone
I was looking at him a few weeks ago but the 12/1 evaporated and became 6/1 very quickly so I thought madhmoon was a better price at that stage at 8/1
Just because he was 12/1 a few weeks ago does not mean he is not value at 7/2.
When he was 12/1 there were many other horses potentially taking part such as Japan the potential 2019 arc winner and many others. Also it was far from definite that HEADMAN would take part it was merely a possibility.We now know that he is definitely taking part (assuming a disaster doesnt happen), we also now have a very good idea the ground will be to his liking. We also now know that many possible top class rivals didnt make the deckaration stage.
So to say the horse isnt value at 7/2 because he was 12/1 a few weeks ago merely shows me that you have no realistic concept of value or true understanding of what value means.
Surely a few weeks ago MAGICAL would have also been bigger odds yet you failed to apply this logic to your little gang and all the swooning over the horrificallY priced no hoper MAGICAL.
Also you have already shown that you arent a great judge of value as you said you didnt back headman beacuse he had come into 6/1 and Madhmoon was 8/1 so you backed madhmoon as you thought he was the better price.
Headman is now half the price of that runner. You have no concept of value.
potato you claim that Magical needs a break yet AOB said “The plan for Magical was always to go to York, then go to the Irish Champion and if all goes well then go to the Arc. We have been very happy with her since and she came out the race very well.”
Doesn’t sound like the horse is for the scrapheap just yet.
When headman is the odds on favourite as you predicted potato I will bow down to your unparalleled judgement of value
You have backed a filly who is likely to be imminently retired and is merely having a day out to say goodbye to the irish public in this race.
The above is actually what I said Mike.
She may well go to the arc and then get retired. If that happened The weekends race would therefor clearly be her last chance to say goodbye to the Irish public???
She may be back next season? Thats not at all impossible. Though its my opinion that ‘shes likely to be retired imminently’. I certainly have not claimed this to be fact so im not to sure what point you are trying to make here..
When headman is the odds on favourite as you predicted potato I will bow down to your unparalleled judgement of valueIf Headman goes off odds on or 50/1 that is in the hands of the betting public. I have no control over what the masses back and is in no way an indication of my judgement of value.
In my pricing on the market as of today Headman is an odds on shot in this field. Thats my personal opinion and why I was prepared to take the 7/2 today. Its entirely irrelevant what the betting public do from here.
Influential people in the racing media such as Pricewise, Hugh Taylor, ITV racing team, Attheraces, sportinglife, Telephone tipsters, subscription tipsters, trainers comments etc etc will all influence the price between now and the race time.
The race result will ultimately determine if I got value or didnt get value on this occassion.
potato you did say she needs a break to be fair. If you read back your post you will see it. In fact we all can. lol
Fancy an EVS match bet with magical should they both run potato?,im happy to put up whatever you want… pm me if so.
This isnt Grinder Ham….
Why on earth would I want a match bet at evens with a stranger off the internet that would ultimately involve swapping bank details.
The bet is stupid not only because of the potential security flaws of such a bet.
When you have a bet with a regulated betting company you have protection, security. Im the unlikely event of any dispute IBAS wiĺl help you if you have genuinely been wronged.
An internet bet with a stranger comes with no protection or guarantee. If you lost and didnt pay me then what could I do?? Send the boys round to debt collect? What if you gave a false address? What if the police got called? There is no legality in an intermet forum bet.
Only children call out people for a bet on an internet forum. Its pathetic.
The absolute stupidity aside of such a bet. Why on earth would I offer you evens on Magical beating Headman when at the current market prices Magical would clearly be odds on to beat Headman.
Perhaps an even more relevant question would be why have I replied to such an idiotic and childish request and that remains the biggest mystery to me.
She has had a long season, this will be her 7th group race since April. She needs a break and looking at the list of horses from Aiden who ran in this race and got beat then it could well be a permananent break to follow.
She clearly does need a break 7th group race since April and then her 8th group race since april next month if she goes to the arc. Its too much racing at such a high level.
When she raced in September last year it was her 3rd race since April and when she raced in the arc that was her 4th run since April. She has clearly been over campaigned this year.
We have been very happy with her since and she came out the race very well.”Thats just a standard aiden o Brien drivel line he feeds to the media regulary. It means nothing and is a worthless thro away comment.
Even Stevie Wonder can see this horse is being over raced.
Look at ENABLE. 3 races all season as a 4yo. 3 races so far thus season aged 5. The arc will be her 4th race of this season.
Do you think if Gosden had of campaigned Enable as O Brien has campaigned Magical that Enable would even have won 2 arcs never mind having a good chance of winning a 3rd?
Very unlikely I would suggest.
I think Magical may well have another 2 Group races left to run after this with possibly the Arc or the easier option of The Sun Chariot on the agenda before Champions Day at Ascot.
You could compare Magical’s career with that of AoB’s fantastic filly Found who ran 10 times as a 4yo taking in 8 Group 1’s of which she only won one which just happened to be The Arc and she placed in all her 10 races of that season.
I don’t usually do stats but looking at the Irish Champion Stakes 4yo’s do not have a good record in the race only Dylan Thomas 2013 have won and The Fugue 2017.
The last filly to win was Snow Fairy in 2012.So if the stats stand up we’re looking for a 3yo colt to win on Saturday which factors in…
Headman
Anthony Van Dyck
Magna Grecia
and leaves me rushing to have a saver on Sheikh Hamdan’s
Madhmoon
because I won’t give up on ElarqamElarqam Win
Madhmoon EW
Rev.Forecast
Best of luck
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...There will always be examples to be FOUND that show horses can run many many times at the top table.
Found was a 3yo and had much less mileage on her legs career wise. I could probably play football every night and perform as a 20 year old though if I tried it at 30 it would be much much tougher on me and I wouldnt perform to the same level.
Being overly exerted as a 3yo was very possibly the reason that as a 4yo she was beaten in 8 of her 10 races including being unplaced in a 5 runner listed race.
This is the trouble with Aidens operation though as he isnt concerned with protecting the horses long term well being. He will just throw numbers at races continuously. He has an endless supply of high class racehorse ready to replace every horse that burns out.
potato
We have been very happy with her since and she came out the race very well.”
Thats just a standard aiden o Brien drivel line he feeds to the media regulary. It means nothing and is a worthless thro away comment.potato what defines over raced? some horses can keep their form running regularly some need a break between races. Its not an exact science. You could’ve argued before the Juddmonte she was overraced but she still ran to form. In your head you have decided to take her on and that’s fair enough. But as it stands she has a favourites chance.
One day the boy that crys wolf will be right.
It’s an interesting stat about AOB in this. No win in last 7, could it be the time of the year is not conducive to end of season racing and AOB doesn’t have his horses spot on? I don’t think so at the moment. For one, he maybe winless in the last 7 but he’s been 2nd 4 of the last 5 years and 2 of those by a neck. I think it’s more an anomaly than a trend currently. I also don’t think AOB would treat the Irish Champion Stakes as a run in the sun for the public.
Regarding Magical herself. I think AOB knows the horse and would never flog a horse. She will tell him when she’s had enough and so far she is running to form in every race and shows no sign that she’s not enjoying it so she must be solid as a favourite.
It’s not a big bet for me though this weekend, as I’m not that convinced about her as I said earlier, but there is nothing to take her on with in my opinion.
I’m not too worried about the 4year old stat either personally, as the 3 year olds are not that good this season and there’s only one 5 year old Diedre. (I do wonder if she’s being underestimated again though!)
Regarding Headman, well there is a very strong trend in this race in that the previous 10 winners have already won a Group 1 and also recorded a min RPR of at least 118 over distance. Headman doesn’t meet either of those 2. Even Roger Charlton said he’s a horse for next year. He is a crazy price in this. He has no form that entitles him to be a 7/2 shot and is clearly too short. Not that convinced he needs better ground either, both Kingman and his dam won on soft and he is a seemingly huge colt.
He’s priced up purely on potential and in my experience these types of horses win rarely in these types of races. Maybe he’ll win, but these types of bets on trend bucking potential types is not a bet I get involved with as it will lose in the long term, especially at 7/2 odds.
Magical for me, but I will probably have a few quid on my derby winner AVD if he runs purely for giving me such a good day in June, I can’t ever leave him unbacked now
Potato, you just use a middleman… lol theres plenty who facilitate such a transaction,
But headmand should be odds on you said? So an EVS matchbet is not rediculous under those circumstances? Im assuming by your response to my offer your just trolling… no need to get touchy, was offering you “free money” ?
Ill happily lay you 5/1 on headman also for a win only bet… should magical run
And i dont get the grinder comment, what did i say that had any relevance to an app you use ?
There will always be examples to be FOUND that show horses can run many many times at the top table.
Found was a 3yo and had much less mileage on her legs career wise. I could probably play football every night and perform as a 20 year old though if I tried it at 30 it would be much much tougher on me and I wouldnt perform to the same level.
Being overly exerted as a 3yo was very possibly the reason that as a 4yo she was beaten in 8 of her 10 races including being unplaced in a 5 runner listed race.
This is the trouble with Aidens operation though as he isnt concerned with protecting the horses long term well being. He will just throw numbers at races continuously. He has an endless supply of high class racehorse ready to replace every horse that burns out.
Found had 11 runs up until her 3yo season finished + Magical had 12? Found won an Arc as a 4yo so i wouldn’t be too worried about that. Also, AOB isn’t too concerned with protecting the horses long term? Lol, what makes you think that? He works for the largest breeding operation in the world that need the horses to be ok after racing. He’s happy to race the fillies/mares on a bit longer as they have such a band of mares at their disposal already + the colts generally are the first to be retired.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Obviously its ridiculous when I could clearly back the match bet at odds greater than evens with a reputable bookmaker who is guaranteed to pay me instantly as soon as the official result is in.
Why would I go to the trouble of organising a middle man for a bet where I could get better odds than evens at the click of a button.
The stupidity of people asking for bets on internet forums never ceases to amaze me. Its beyond stupid.
As for trends betting most trends are flawed and can be overcame. The reason being most trends happen due to copycat scenario.
This is one example only but take the cheltenham gold cup.
The trends stated you couldnt win a gold cup unless you had your first run of the season by November the previous year.
You also had to have so many runs before the gold cup. (cant remember how many but had to be more than 1 run).In 2018 Native River destroyed the trends having his seasonal debut in the year of the gold cup and won the race on the 2nd run of the season.
In 2019 Al Boum photo did exactly the same.
Many trainers who before thought you needed to have first run by november and you needed more than 1 run before running in gold cup will now start campaigning the gold cup horses lighter and many will follow the pattern and a new trend can emmerge where it states you need to be lightly raced as everyone copies each other.
Trends are forever changing and as soon as trainers see another trainer getting sucess using a different method then they will try doing things that way and a new trend will emmerge.
Most trends are completely reversible and you should rarely rule out a horse due to trends though certain trends can be strong.
As for most irish champion stakes winners having already won a group 1 then that is understandable and to be expected that a late season group 1 is won by a horse who has already won a group 1 as the vast majority of runners in such a race would already be group 1 winners.
This in no way means Headman cant win and you could even look at in reverse as most stats can be manipulated to suit your own arguement. You could say Headman is the only runner who has NEVER been beaten in a group 1.
I was merely pointing out the stupidity in your comment that headman should be odds on potato, i knew you wouldnt take an EVS match bet
Your arguement on this is quite funny, what in headmans profile suggests, or has suggested he can run to 125
Also nagicals best performance last year came on her 6th run, shes had 6 runs this season, maintaining 122+, where is there any proof of being overraced, shes had a break,
Do you honestly believe magical would have beaten roman candle just over a head ALL OUT ?
If the field turns up as is just now, headman will go off about 9/1 on the exchanges….
@jackh1092
Thank you Jack I was just in the middle of posting an almost similar answer to Potato in defense of a brilliant mare Found who ran in 16 Group races in her 21 race career and was beaten in a Listed race on her first race as a 4yo after a break of 155 days. After that she ran at top level for the whole of her 4yo career and won the Arc what more could you ask.As for AOB not being concerned about protecting his horses well being
…well please feel free to give up some examples. The Coolmore horses are amongst the most pampered horses in the world and as Jack said the fillies and mares are campaigned longer than the colts who are retired earlier for obvious reasons, and they do achieve great success with this, you only have to look at the career of Minding who ran 7 Group 1 races in her 3yo career culminating with winning the QE11 Stakes and retired after an injury sustained after her G2 Mooresbridge Stakes win her first race back as a 4yo, now does that sound like a trainer who isn’t concerned with protecting a horses long term well being. Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
…well please feel free to give up some examples. The Coolmore horses are amongst the most pampered horses in the world and as Jack said the fillies and mares are campaigned longer than the colts who are retired earlier for obvious reasons, and they do achieve great success with this, you only have to look at the career of Minding who ran 7 Group 1 races in her 3yo career culminating with winning the QE11 Stakes and retired after an injury sustained after her G2 Mooresbridge Stakes win her first race back as a 4yo, now does that sound like a trainer who isn’t concerned with protecting a horses long term well being. - You must be logged in to reply to this topic.