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Heavy ground. Ascot. Addeybb.
What’s not to like? Let’s just keep it simple here.
Addeybb @ 4/1 E/W
The fact it might not be run on Heavy or Soft! Bookies are shortening to minimise risk rather than punters money I think. (one even admitted it, regarding The Revenant in the QEII).
Switching to the inner track looks inevitable for the Champion Stakes and that track is currently Good To Soft, Soft in places.
Unsettled week, but Ascot drains fast, not inconceivable that this could still be run on Good To Soft.
Heavy rain forecast today, then bits of rain every day till the race
I’d be shocked if even that inner course wasnt proper soft ground come saturday
They probably said it was good to soft to try and get more entrants lol
AOB has left in Magical and Japan. If either of those 2 run, I’m all over them. Both have form on soft ground anyway and should be miles better than this field.
In fact not only do they have form on soft, they have the best form on soft.
Yes they would be clear fav if either runs
Cant either would be much of a price of declared though
I was very impressed with Fox Tal at Doncaster, and though there are unknowns over the ground, I’ll chance the 25’s.
It isn’t really my kind of race this, and really pushing it for two, but on his run in The Eclipse, and behind Japan, I would give Regal Reality an outside chance of plugging into a place, so he’ll be taken as well. Certainly has his own ideas though, and no surprise to see him slow away.
Fox Tal
Regal Reality
Both 25’s EWAOB tonight “Trainer Aidan O’Brien said on Tuesday: “We’ll be making a decision regarding plans for Japan in the next couple of days, but it’s quite possible he won’t run again this year.
“We still have to finalise plans for Ascot and nothing is set in stone, but it looks as if Magical and I Can Fly might run in the Champion Stakes”
3/1 on Magical is massive in this field and I can’t see that price staying for long. Based on above comments, I’m taking the risk she will definitely be declared on Thursday. She could go off Odds On for this. It’s hers for the taking.
Magical 3/1
I’d be keen to take her on myself she went out like a light pretty quickly in the Arc which I’ve never seen her do before and she’s had a long enough season, this would be her 9th start. Couple that with the fact O’Brien has never won this race which I was surprised by, probably testament to him prioritising other races over it.
No idea what I’d be taking her on with as yet Addeybb is obvious enough but hides no secrets in the market now.
That’s the point though, go through the field and it’s a Group 2 field really on form. Diedre has winning Group1 form against her own sex and Regal Reality has decent form but both will dislike the ground, Regal Reality especially and Diedre’s winning RPR was only 118. Coronet is another Group1 winner, but RRP even less, 116.
Addeybb is the only one to have some confidence taking Magical on with, but his form is short of top level form whether he loves the ground or not.
The last 12 runnings at least, have been won by a horse that’s recorded a min RPR of at least 122. Only Magical has done that.
It’s a poor field and I really don’t think AOB would run Magical if she was really done for the season. She did go out like a light but that could be because she did way too much in the early part of the race and 12F on that ground around Longchamp having done too much too early was a step too far for her. 10F on soft should be right up her street.
Don’t get me wrong, i am not a lover of her head carriage, but at 6/1 Coronet is quite big.
She was a staying on 2nd to Magical in this last year, giving her the allowance, hasn’t run since August, with no Enable, Mehdaayih etc. in here, Frankie is bound to ride and this has clearly been a target.
Her form this year hasn’t been all that bad either. She beat Ziyad who has went on to win a g2 and finish close in a g1 (poor enough standard albeit)
Also beat With You over probably an inadequate 1m2 since snug enough.
Given Japan looks uncertain to go, Addeyebb isn’t a superstar and magical has run a tough race 10 days ago, i am with Coronet at 6/1.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Just a small point Jack she was second to Magical in the Fillies and Mares, but saying that she is as effective at 10
Fair point! Multitasking aint my strong point haha.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I can’t resist one more in this, and I want to wait until the full field is known, but I will add Deirdre at 12-1.
I’m going to join you there Kris as a little EW play now they have switched to the inner track, as she should like the ground more now. Was a little unlucky in the Irish Champion so is a solid EW against Magical.
Diedre 12/1 EW
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