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Joel Stakes 2019

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion Joel Stakes 2019

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  • #1460618
    hein bollowhein bollow
    • Total Posts 982

    Hi folks,
    a fav of mine is in the market here, and my first question would be, if anybody heard anything if he would really turn up here?
    Secondly I know that he is quite skinny here with generally 7/4, but on the one hand the rivals are imo much weaker than the ones he met before, on the other hand he has to overcome his quirkiness! At least the Gosden form is really on the up now and I think this might help.
    Any views?

    • Total Posts 1642

    Dettori is jocked up so must be the plan to run

    • Total Posts 832

    Not sure about King Of Comedy but I have just backed

    BENBATL ew 8/1 3 places betfair

    Has won 5 group races including 3 group 1s in 3 different countries. Only the wonder mare WINX beat him in the cox plate when last seen.

    Its good that Saeed Bin Suroor has given this great horse plenty of time to get over last years jetsetting and its encouraging that saeed said “I loved the way he worked” recently.

    This is a proper racehorse and he holds entries in the Arc, QEII and the middle distance champion stakes later this season and a trip to America or Canada is apparently very possible.

    Trip wont be any problem even though his recent form is over further. He ran an absolute cracker on his only previous course run over this trip in the craven stakes on just his 2nd racecourse start. He has won first race back after a break before. Ground wont be an issue either.

    8/1 is a very good price on a proper horse whos trainer has won this race twice before. Should be favourite I feel.

    • Total Posts 9794

    Lol Hein I was just going to post up this Thread anyway have copied over some of what I replied in the Notebooks section…

    I thought Gosden was looking for a Group 1 for King Of Comedy but would love to see him turn out for this on Friday as I’ll be there to see him. :good:

    In the absence of KOC (or betting without the favourite ;-) )I’m very keen on Michael Stoute’s Zaaki who has been doing everything asked of him and is owned by Tetra Pak heiress Kirsten Rausing who gets quite a few winners at Newmarket.  
    Stoute won the race last year with Mutashry and only 5 runners turned out.

    Best of luck..Jac :rose:

    Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
    • Total Posts 868

    It’s fascinating that King Of Comedy goes here, it’s a bit of a surprise and I’m yet to really understand exactly why. Maybe it’s just to get him back to 8F, get his head in front and go on to the QEII. He needs to win this well to have a chance in that. Benbatl is another really interesting one, clear on ratings and 8/1 looks massive on paper based on that but it does take a leap of faith for me. I don’t pay any attention to the last run as Winx consistently beat average horses and looking at who Benbatl beat that day there is absolutely nothing there he shouldn’t be entitled to beat. His form is also much stronger over further so another question mark there, as is the lay off, he’s never been off this long before, so how fit is he? Surely running here to get him tuned for future bigger targets abroad. (Think SBS has already said abroad is next target rather than Champions Day). His record in the UK is also questionable, last 3 runs 505 with RPR figures of 113,105,115. So on paper he looks interesting but there’s a lot in there to doubt, but I’m also not convinced about Zaaki either. Not sure 8F is his optimum trip, he ran over mostly 10F last year and this year his best form is over either Ascot’s stiff mile, the extended mile at Epsom and the 9F Strensall Stakes and you would imagine none of that best form is good enough to beat KOC.

    I do think it’s very likely to be between those 3 though, I just don’t see what else is likely to get into this and therefore Benbatl saver at 8/1 is worth it as he’s overpriced I’d agree.

    However it goes back to KOC and it’s quite likely 7/4 could be a big price for a very in form trainer on a horse that’s likely to be being prepped for a bigger prize and is currently the QEII fav.

    King of Comedy 7/4
    Benbatl 8/1 saver

    • Total Posts 868

    Having said that I just double checked the weather forecast for this week and it’s shocking. Both Kingman and KOC damsire have good form on soft but it would be a bit of an unknown so 7/4 is probably a fair price.

    • Total Posts 97

    I think you could legitimately speculate how King Of Comedy may not handle the Rowley Mile particularly well, he’s not exactly looked the most straightforward for all his talent but he might handle it enough baring in mind he’s looked a Group 1 winner in waiting and this is a Group 2.

    I think Zaaki’s a very decent horse and his rating underestimates him, he’s achieved more than Skardu or Happy Power who are rated higher than him in my opinion. If you set Goodwood aside where I expressed doubts about him beforehand on the sharp downhill 7F trip (he was less than impressive at Epsom despite winning) and the race was a real messy affair, set that run aside then he’s 3 from 4 this season and the only defeat came at the hands of the Queen Anne runner-up Beat The Bank who won this race in 2017. Mustashry won this last year for Sir Michael Stoute and he’d have had a similar profile to Zaaki heading into the race last year. Some of Zaaki’s form looks better now than it did at the time – Space Traveller was beaten in the Strensall Stakes and has won the Boomerang since, Suedois was behind him and Beat The Bank in the Summer Mile and won the Supreme Stakes at Goodwood since etc… He’d need King Of Comedy to significantly under perform I grant you but it’s not beyond the realms of possibility. You wouldn’t want to see much rain this week I suppose for Zaaki looking at his form.

    I can’t believe Benbatl’s rating :wacko: if you set aside what he did in Dubai in 2018 there’s really not much substance to what he’s achieved for a horse carrying that sort of a number and you’d have to wonder why Bin Suroor would keep him off since last October to bring him back in tip top shape for a Group 2 in September. Not for me personally.

    I’ve been very impressed by UAE Jewel and although this is a massive step up in Grade he does fall under that could be anything mantra and he’s a course and distance winner but it’s a bit of a concern he’s been off since May himself, haven’t heard much about him in the interim, has anyone else? :unsure:

    • Total Posts 832

    With rain now forecast every day up to and including the race then it may turn soft and HAPPY POWER will be the horse who will relish that scenario. Unbeaten in 2 runs on soft this season. Has already improved over 1 1/2 stone so far this season with the possibility of more to come. Trip is perfect and he should handle the track well. Soft ground makes him a major player and and would still have an ew chance if it didnt get to soft. The 10/1 is too big too miss looking at the lastest weather.

    HAPPY POWER ew 10/1

    BENBATL remains the horse they all have to beat however and the form of his 2nd to Winx should not be underestimated. He is in the firing line to become the worlds best horse this Autumn, absolute beast. This is a triple group 1 winner racing in a group 2 without a penalty. The fact he has been so looked after by Bin Suroor and remains in training aged 5 means they believe there are more group 1s to be won with this horse.

    • Total Posts 2516

    If it does turn soft, this race is likely to cut up bad i suspect!

    If Never No More was to be an intended runner, he’d be of minor interest. Off the scene from April i’d trust he two more recent runs haven’t been him quite at his best. Two of his best runs with softer ground in the description.

    He has an entry over 6f at the curragh. So i’ll hold fire. Has to step up.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    • Total Posts 832

    Half of the atlantic ocean has fell on the west of the country this morning. Not sure how bad it is in Newmarket but here its horrific non stop heavy rain here. the summer ground is being washed away before my eyes.

    Balding must be adoring the rain.

    • Total Posts 868

    After looking at the forecast last night, I held off actually placing any antipost bets, as the weather is worrying! I’d like to hear something positive from JG about King of Comedy before backing him.

    It might end up being a race I won’t place a bet on.

    Happy Power does have good form on soft from earlier this season and his 4th in the Sussex Stakes does give him the form to have a chance here but I was put off him last night by his last run. The ground was only just Good there that day, it was nearly Good To Soft and he ought to have run better than he did unless he’s just a mudlark which I doubt he is.

    UAE Jewel does fall into that category of could be anything, but usually that means the form isn’t good enough yet to entitle winning, which it isn’t yet with him and it has to be a bit of a negative that he’s been off since May after being targeted at the Prix Du Jockey Club at one point.

    Skardu, you could maybe make a case for on breeding that he’ll go on the ground, but he’s been fairly disappointing since the Guineas and doesn’t have the form.

    Matterhorn‘s best is on AW and I’m usually against AW horses on Grass.

    The rest have too much to find.

    • Total Posts 868

    I don’t think you can question Benbatl’s rating that much though TTM. He is a 3 times Group 1 winner and recorded RPRs of 121+, 3 times.

    We could easily argue all his best form is abroad however and therefore a fictional UK rating would be much lower and that’s the point for me. His best run in the UK is 115 and that’s why he probably won’t win.

    • Total Posts 832

    Benbatls form is outstanding. In the uk as a 3yo he hacked up on debut in a 12 runner race. On only his 2nd racecourse start he ran in group 3 company and ran a cracker in 3rd. On only his 3rd ever run he ran in a group 2 and was 2nd. On only his 4th racecourse start he got within 3 lengths or so of winning the Epsom Derby.

    He was always the inexperienced horse racing against horses who ahad developed through top 2yo races and already had experience.

    Fantastic UK perfomances by Benbatl. He then won an Ascot group 3 and ran a cracker on his first ever race against his elders, a race won by ENABLE. His final start of his 3yo season was a disappointment though a bad performance on heavy ground at Haydock can always been forgiven.

    Overall an outstanding debut uk season from BENBATL THE BEAST.

    Sent to Meydan he proved a revelation winning a group3,2 and 1 destroying a horse called DEIDRE who went on to win a group 1.

    Sensational 2nd phase of development complete.

    His first run back in the uk can be easily forgiven as it can take a horse time to reacclimatise after being in the middle east.
    He then won a munich group 1 before his only disappointing uk run at York when only 5th (still decent form).

    He then went to Australia and smashed them up as well before only finding winx too good giving her weight.


    Talk of his poor uk form is highly misguided. :yes:

    When the big muscular beast stares down King Of Comedy at the start then King Of Comedy will shake with fear as THE BEAST laughs at King Of Comedy and his listed win.

    • Total Posts 868

    It’s not misguided, it’s there for all to see. One could paint up his UK form all one likes, but on paper his best run is 115 after 9 starts in the UK. Thats not Group 1 form, not even Group 2 form.

    His run in the derby was poor by standards, 4th with an RPR of 114 in what was the worst Derby in 20 years pretty much. He then went onto win the Tercentenary At Royal Ascot, a Group 3 and that is about where his UK form stands. Group 3 level.

    He ran twice in the UK last year, both times not form that would win this race. Maybe we can make excuses for the Queen Anne run judging by how poorly he ran, but if we keep finding excuses for horses they become expensive to back for sure.

    The question is whether he can replicate his overseas form in the UK, not whether his UK form is questionable. His UK form is questionable, no doubt. If he replicates his overseas form, then he’s the one to beat.

    The race might become a lottery and/or cut up bad anyway, so could end being a race that anything can win in by virtue of the conditions and how the race pans out.

    Think Newmarket missed most of the bad stuff though apparently.

    • Total Posts 832

    THE BEAST wins at Royal Ascot in his first ever season on the bridle. The jockey was updating facebook in the final furlong as the beast pulls effortlessly clear.

    Sensational group 1 win. Yes its a german group 1 and isnt as strong as a uk group 1 but dont look at the rivals. Look what THE BEAST effortlessly does to them.

    THE BEAST IN THE EAST effortleslly tears the field to shreds yet again completely on the bridle. Yes that was goodwood group 1 winner DEIDRE trailing behind.

    Taking on one of the worlds greatest ever horses in her own back yard. He couldnt quite get that one but pulled clear of the rest.

    8/1 all gone now and as low as 9/2 in places.


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