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Joel Stakes 2019

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Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 67 total)
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  • #1462596
    • Total Posts 832

    Just 7 runners go to post


    Good to see all the big boys held their ground. :yes:

    BENBATL and his 3 fake group 1s

    vs KING OF HYPE and his listed win :good: :mail:

    • Total Posts 832

    POGO is just a decent handicapper and is out of his league here.

    ANNA NERIUM is capable at group 3 level against her own sex but this test is too much for her.

    Although ZAAKI appears progressive having won a listed and 2 group 3s this season his best performance came on his seasonal debut according to RPR in the listed race. He hasnt progressed at all this season and is merely consistent and has been well placed. He is at his best fresh. This is a step too far and he will be found out.

    9 of the last 11 winners were 4yo+. When Time Test won as a 3yo it was a 4 runner race and 3 of them were 3yos so its a race that suits experienced horses usually.

    UAE JEWEL is a very inexperienced 3yo having had just 2 starts. Clearly held in high regard and unbeaten in 2 Newmarket runs and open to improvement but he will find this tough so early in his career. Will need to be a great to win this race on his 3rd start which isnt impossible but is unlikely.

    KING OF COMEDY is apparently a group 1 horse in waiting. I think you could wait for the whole of eternity and he still wouldnt land one. Quirky horse whos 2nd in the group 1 probably flatters him. His stablemate Too Darn Hot was half the price of him and im not convinced about Circus Maximus. A listed winner who will be blown away here.
    Gosden always leaves a lot to work on with his 2yos and they tend to improve greatly from 1st to 2nd run. KOC ran round a bend on 1st run, he then ran below form on his 2nd run which was on a straight track.
    Although he came out as a 3yo amd won over yarmouths straight mile his class got him the win against class 5 novices not his love of straight tracks. Newmarkets straight track is a possible problem as is the dip and the undulations. A very unlikely looking winner here especially as his best trip is believed to be 1m 2f.

    Balding is the one man who has trained a 3yo to win this race recently (not counting the 4 runner race). Beat The Bank tragically died but Balding and king Power have a live chance here of repeating what BTB did. This horse has thrown the odd bad run in but is highly progressive having improved 32lb since last october when rated just 83. He has group 1 form and even though only 3 he has plenty of experince having raced 10 times. Clearly capable of improving again and winning assuming Benbatl underperfomed.

    As it is though THE BEAST is pumping and ready. Lovely little warm up beating lesser horses here to set him up for those big grade 1s.
    Potentially the worlds highest rated racehorse by the end of the season.

    Hard to envisage that I wont have made a nice profit after this race with my 10/1 and 8/1 3 places ew bets. Surely I have the winner :unsure: :yes:

    True odds:

    BENBATL 2/7 :yes:
    UAE JEWEL 14/1
    ZAAKI 40/1
    100/1 Bar

    • Total Posts 68

    I know others don’t like some of the stuff you write Potato but I do admire your enthusiasm and confidence in the horses you back. You stick to your guns and don’t sit on the fence and I applaud you for that. :good:

    I’d agree with your assessments of Anna Nerium, Pogo and UAE Jewel. My initial thought was the same as you on Zaaki but I changed my mind so you could be correct on that one as well.

    I appreciate that you don’t particularly rate King Of Comedy and again fair play for sticking to your guns on that one but the fact is that Happy Power is also only a Listed winner and much more exposed than King Of Comedy. He was beaten in a terrible Group 2 last time which was a lot weaker than the Joel Stakes will be. There’s no way he should be a shorter price than King Of Comedy.

    One of Benbatl’s Group 1 wins is very good form – the Dubai Turf win which as you pointed out Deidre was 3rd a long way back. His other 2 Group 1’s without going too deep into the form had Blair House (a very good handicapper when last seen on these shores) and Stormy Antarctic (literally a Group 2 horse at his best and only a Group 3 winner over here) as his runners up. They are not strong Group 1’s hence why I don’t believe he’s a 123 horse for all ratings are largely meaningless but that level of form might be good enough in what is a Group 2.

    He had a very good early season in Dubai in 2018 but he didn’t go back this year to defend his crown and that would bother me if I wanted to back him, why has he not been seen in almost a year? Good luck with him Potato I couldn’t be backing anything in what is a small field with changeable weather and no obvious pace angle into the race. One to watch and savour. Well done on the antepost 8/1 with 3 places by the way should at least guarantee something from the place part.

    • Total Posts 832

    The reason THE BEAST has been given such a long break is due to the jetsetting of last year. He raced in 3 different continents and was succesful in all of them at group level. That would break most high class horses.

    He needed a good rest and he was given one. Its class training from Saeed Bin Suroor. He could have rushed the horse back out to Dubai to chase prizes but Saeed understood he needed to be rested and he showed patience.
    On Friday he is back refreshed, ravishing and ready and there are big prizes to be aimed at with a pristine condition Benbatl this autumn.

    Benbatl will strike the front and this is a serious muscular beast of a 5yo, the crackpot KOC wont dare pass this beast. Benbatl is the alpha and the betas will all follow the pack leader home as there dna instructs them to.

    Its true that HAPPY POWERS best win is a listed win and its also true that he wasnt at his best at goodwood last time. But its also true that he won at york then wasnt at his best at Ascot then ran a cracker at goodwood in the group 1. He doesnt seem to give his best everytime and is capable of a bad run but he has proven that he can return after a bad run with a good run and as such cant be ruled out. He is a valiant substitute waiting in the wings if Benbatl shocked the world and didnt win. A horse who has improved 33 lb in a 10 month period and could still have more to come should not be underestimated.

    • Total Posts 832

    Baldings BANGKOK got to within a neck of beating Zaaki last time at York. Balding must be very confident that his superior 3yo HAPPY POWER will be more than capable of dealing with Zaaki in this race yet even at this stage his runner is still double the prices of Stoutes.

    • Total Posts 609

    The weather doesn’t seem that bad at the moment now, should be no worse than GS? A lot of support for KOC today. I’ve taken the 11/8. Bit gutted I didn’t go in at 7/4 before the weather looked atrocious but 11/8 is still a bit of a value I think. Benbatl is as long as 13/2 which is a bit telling, he’s only shortened on the declarations. If there’s significant support on Friday for him it would be very interesting.

    With the ground looking relatively okay I’m expecting KOC to take this fairly well on route to the QEII.

    He’s not better over 10F, it’s very much open to debate that, I thought he might be after Ascot but JG is using this as a platform for the QEII now surely.

    The solid market support suggests the vibes are very good. He’s actually odds on with Bet Victor.

    • Total Posts 832

    KOC will always have solid market support he is a media hype horse who the press worship and the bookmakers make money off.

    Benbatl will go off clear 2nd fav no bigger than 7/2 on the day.

    • Total Posts 609

    That’s simply not true as he went off at 4/1 for the SJP which he was a neck away from winning, having previously been available at 40/1 before the Heron Stakes. Then went off 4/1 for the Juddmonte, bit skinny that, but ran to 122 RPR. It’s not hype, it’s down on paper, as is Benbatl’s average UK record so far. No amount of Potato over confidence can change that. KOC has improved on every run this year. It’s a fact.

    You could even spin it as KOC best UK run is 7lbs better than Benbatl’s plus KOC gets 4lbs weight for age. KOC should comfortably beat him.

    • Total Posts 832

    You appear to believe that Benbatls devestating defeats of Deidre and friends in dubai or his outstanding performance giving one of the worlds all time great horses 4lb in her own back yard didnt happen. It did happen, just because those runs werent in the uk doesnt mean it didnt happen. Benbatl is one of the worlds best racehorses thats an indisputable fact. These are ultimately trees in comparison to THE BEAST that is BENBATL.

    Its a good job this race isnt being ran at Southwell or BENATL THE BULLY would be kicking sand in that drippy little 3yos face.
    This is David vs Goliath but David hasnt got a slingshot this time. KING OF HYPE is getting BEASTED once and for all. Next stop Alan Berrys yard and a life of polytrack class 7. :yes:


    • Total Posts 6584

    I have to agree with Potato, I think Benbatl has a really strong shout here and
    I bagged him at 8/1 on Monday (mentioned in Pat’s ante post thread). I think the
    run last time out against Winx is being underestimated, I think that’s up to Gp1
    form. I’m more concerned about Zaaki than King Of Comedy, I think his form looks
    quite solid and bar a down the field run in the Lennox, where he got going a touch
    late over a probably inadequate 7F, it could have been 4 wins out of 5 runs this
    year barring going down a nose to Beat The Bank at Ascot and that’s no disgrace.
    If I’m not quite hitting the confidence levels of Potato, I’m still very hopeful
    he’s good enough to take this.

    • Total Posts 2263

    Haven’t had a bet, but i don’t think ayones necessarily is underestimating the run Benbatl, more that he hasn’t shown the same level here. Even after Meydan he didn’t, granted he beat Stormy Atlantic in Germany, still not home turf….the question marks there anyway.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    • Total Posts 6584

    It’s a fair point Jack that his improved form has all been away from home and you
    have to go back 2 years for his last win here in a Group 3 at Ascot. I suppose that
    has been factored into the price, otherwise he would be vying for favourite I reckon.
    Nonetheless, I think he looks a different horse and if he can bring that improvement
    here, and I think he will, then he has a very decent chance. At the odds, I think he’s
    better value than those at the head of the market.

    • Total Posts 832

    One of my favourite pieces of awful uk form from BENBATL came on his 3rd racecourse start in a red hot York group 2 when he beat CRYSTAL OCEAN (went on to become worlds highest rated horse and won 7 uk group races), REKINDLING (went on to win curragh cup and melbourne cup), FOREST RANGER (went onto be a 3 times group winner), SYPHAX (Acomb Stakes winner),

    Lets put it into comparison with what KING OF HYPE did on his 3rd racecourse start in a feeble class 5 yarmouth novice.

    He beat LAND OF LEGENDS (went on to win 2 hcaps), EDARAAT (went on to win a polytrack class 5 hcap and a class 4 hcap at redcar), DR JEKYL (went on to become 6th in a chelmsford novice), KNOWING (went on to become a duel class5 hcap winner), MILITARY TACTIC (best form since was 4th in a class 5 hcap).

    Benbatl scored a much higher RPR on his 3rd start than King Of Comedy on his 3rd start.
    Benbatl has also progressed greatly in his role of international jet setting superstar though we must not acknowledge this form as it wasnt in the uk. :wacko: :wacko: :wacko:

    • Total Posts 609

    What relevance is that Potato?!!

    • Total Posts 832

    Maths class:

    BENBATLS total RPR for his first 6 uk races. All 6 RPRS added together

    = 655 :yahoo:

    KING OF HYPE total RPR for his first 6 uk races. All 6 RPRS added together.

    = 628 :cry:

    Lets not even acknowledge that THE BEAST greatly progressed as a horse in Dubai and again in Australia behind WINX because that did not happen in UK. :wacko:

    THE KING OF HYPE IS GETTING BULLIED BY THE BEAST on Newmarkets Rowley Mile tomorrow.

    The countdown is on. :yes:

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 67 total)
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