Forum Replies Created
- Posts
Regarding Love and the Arc I’d be wary as they’ve kept Magical in training presumably for another crack at it, I seem to remember they had a similar predicament with Found when she won the Arc and Minding being the up and comer, sadly we never got to see what Minding could do in that regard as injury curtailed her 4 year old season early. No reason they both can’t run but Minding and Found were split up at the end of that season and I just wonder if they did that because Found had a torrid time there as a 3 year old and they might think its a race more suitable for a maturer filly/mare. She was very impressive yesterday and I suspect Frankly Darling on a more galloping track and Ennistymon in a weaker Group 1 will both show the form to be very good in time.
Its a very draw orientated race from memory you want to be low and with that in mind Dettori back reunited with A’Ali who he won on 3 times as a 2 Year Old, back down to 5F, he’s a real speedball so I’m surprised they went to 6F first time up. If he’s trained on he looks overpriced at 8/1.
I’m interested in Hochfeld as well he’s dropped half a stone from a career high mark and didn’t have a lot of racing at all last season for one trained by Mark Johnston so presumably he’s had his issues and would have been more than entitled to have needed his run at Ascot, a first start in over a year where he was pretty fresh on the front end and wasn’t given a hard time by Fanning once he was beaten. I don’t know much about the claimer on board but taking 7lbs off his back effectively gives him the least to carry here and if he does retain much of his ability he’s entitled to go very well in a race his trainer has won 3 times.
Respect most of the opposition its a tough old handicap as you’d expect.
Another Mohican Heights fan – just from looking at the market as it is now he stands out as being the wrong price relative to a few.
English King favourite, fine no problems draw isn’t ideal but he has probably the best jockey on board to get him out of bother, I do unlike others think Berkshire Rocco is a decent horse, I think he’d have gone close to winning the King Edward if he’d ran there instead of against the Irish Derby winner in the Vase, I don’t think he’s much worse if at all than Pyledriver and Arthurs Kingdom. Just my opinion everyone is entitled to theirs of course but regardless English King beat him very easily. I’d have liked to have seen him have to work to win a race as I can’t see him winning this hands and heels, another unknown is how he reacts when it gets to the ugly stuff.
Kameko would look a great price if you had even an inkling he stayed the trip, best form in the race draw looks fine and funnily enough I actually think the worst outcome for him would be if they made this into a crawl he’s been very impressive at the end of two very strongly run miles, going a good gallop won’t harm him until it gets to the latter stages if he isn’t to stay. I think he’ll get 10F fine so I wouldn’t be surprised if he stays well enough to place.
I’ve said enough about Mogul already, he’s O’Brien’s best hope but the market more than tells you that. Russian Emperor I don’t think is that good and like Mogul his price is no more than fair.
I think Kameko’s got a better chance of staying than Vatican City and I trust the form of the English Guineas more than I do the Irish Guineas so Vatican City actually has a lot to prove for all the potential is there.
Then you come onto the outsiders and just a gut feeling but also on what he achieved at 2, I think Mohican Heights is/will be a better horse than Pyledriver, Highland Chief and probably Russian Emperor as well. He’s the biggest prices of what I consider the plausible outsiders but I don’t think he necessarily should be, Simcock’s horses weren’t exactly firing prior to Ascot and there’s every chance he needed his run just as much as Mogul did. Given the doubts about 2 of those ahead of him staying and the less than ideal draws for Mogul and English King I have to get involved here and there are bits of 25/1 about, I’d have happily taken 20/1 myself.
This looks a cracker on paper and the comparisons with Enable and Rhododendron are justified with Love having to step up in trip whereas we know Frankly Darling stays the trip already, for the same trainers and the same top jockeys, its just what the sport needs. I think Love will get the trip just fine she’s similarly bred to Magical and Hydrangea (and obviously Rhododendron) who if it weren’t for Enable in the latter case would all be Group 1 winners over 12F and to be honest I think they are both about the right prices so there’s no real value in it unless you have a strong opinion either way. Enable was a much bigger price against Rhododendron for what its worth and Rhododendron was beaten in her Guineas albeit by a very good filly in Winter. Of the others I do like Gold Wand for Roger Varian and if I felt strongly Love wouldn’t stay I’d be taking Frankly Darling on with her as you’d only have the one filly to get beat but I think at the moment its a race to savour. Good luck to anyone who is on at nice prices on either of them.
Reading back through Aidan’s stable tour on At The Races right back when racing re-started on 1st June he was leaning towards running Mogul in the Derrinstown Trial rather than Ascot and even then was at pains to point out he’d probably need his first run, the fact they went to Ascot instead which came later suggests he was even further behind than they’d hoped/realised. On another note I should add that he’s also quoted at that point as saying they wouldn’t be in a rush to step Vatican City up in trip which seems to have gone out of the window just a month later. Russian Emperor didn’t even get a mention but then nor did Santiago which shows how much the landscape can change in a month.
Mogul’s price is terrible Japan went off 20/1 last year with a similar profile. What does that tell you regarding O’Brien’s 3 year old colts if he is considered the main hope when Sir Dragonet, Anthony Van Dyck and Broome all went off shorter than Japan last year. I know part of that is down to the three mentioned winning their trials but the fact is that Cormorant beat Russian Emperor in one of the trials Broome won in Ireland and he would be miles down the pecking order, the fact they are considering letting a full brother of Gleneagles try 12F having run so well in a Group 1 over a mile, the fact they are probably running a maiden winner and a maiden, they even considered letting the Irish Derby winner back up again a week later. It has been very well documented on this forum how bad a year he had with his 2 year old colts last year by his high standards and it seems we are seeing signs of that here. That said he always seems to pull something out of the bag, I’d agree that Mogul is his best shot taking all things into consideration but that isn’t a statement of confidence in that horse by any stretch of the imagination.
Such a tricky year with no Dante, no Chester trials etc…. and you think all those Aidan O’Brien entries in that big a field who will he give the spares to? Doyle and De Sousa would be the biggest names I can think of who don’t have rides and I guess Buick would be free if his Godolphin riding commitments saw him at Epsom on the day anyway, they don’t have anyone entered in the Derby now and he’s showing on Racing Post as having 3 rides at Epsom in other races.
There is a very good article in the Guardian today by Chris Cook which is online primarily regarding team tactics where he’s interviewed Aidan O’Brien, that in itself was interesting but perhaps more so was the hint that Ryan Moore would probably choose Vatican City on Saturday. I’m not sure the market have cottoned onto it yet and it isn’t confirmed but it would make sense to me despite his stamina doubts he’s the only one in the field with genuine Group 1 credentials to his CV bar Kameko albeit we don’t yet know how strong the Irish Guineas was. That if/when confirmed will inevitably cause a flip flop effect with Mogul and Russian Emperor who I believe are slightly ahead of him with most firms. There is also mention that Armory might still go to France instead.
Genuine question those who’ve backed Mogul and Russian Emperor already, if this was to happen who would you like to see riding?
Its an unusual makeup there was 14lbs top to bottom last year and this year Magic Circle has to give 24lbs to bottom weight which I think is because they’ve had a low amount of takers for places across the two races, the consolation race looks dire this year. Ordinarily Australis, Caravan of Hope and Smart Champion would be fighting out favouritism for the Consolation so that makes things tricky for the top weights in the Plate but its balancing out the class edge they have against the potential of those mentioned. Its a proper old fashioned handicap not like the 7lb the field condensed ones you tend to see these days.
Jockey bookings are very interesting here. Perhaps reading too much into it but it is food for thought.
Buick has seemingly chosen the lower rated of the two Godolphin horses who is untested outside of handicap company.
Has Ryan Moore decided to ride for Hannon rather than being on Limato? You’d think he’d have first dibs on the spares going with Harry Bentley at Newcastle. Kirby has never ridden Limato before.
Jim Crowley has picked the lesser exposed of the Hamdan Al Maktoum horses over the one with a credible recent run to his name.
Dettori getting the spare on Vale Of Kent – won the Bunbury Cup on him at the July course, this one less of a surprise but noteworthy nonetheless.
De Sousa is absent from Newmarket altogether – suggests there are better King Power opportunities elsewhere on Saturday.
No Mosse on Sir Dancealot – been on top for his last 5 wins. This is easily explained, I don’t know if he’s riding in Britain at all this season but undoubtedly a negative for me with the greatest of respect to Sean Levey who is a top jockey in his own right. Sir Dancealot is one of those horses who needs a certain ride and all the cards to drop right and Mosse’s riding style seems to suit the horse. It won’t be easy conceding a penalty first time up either.
All things told I can see both Godolphin horses being there or thereabouts and Vale Of Kent is in superb form at the moment and should run his race, I’m suspecting at his age maybe Limato might come on for the run? Turjomaan in the first time visor is my selection, very lightly raced at group level, the form with Duke Of Hazzard in last years Thoroughbred Stakes was well advertised by the winner going on to take the Summer Mile and he was thrown in at the deep end last time in the Queen Anne for one with so little experience, I’m hoping he had an easy time of things once his chance was gone and I’m happy to draw a line under the performance at face value.
Just going off the ATR sectionals for the SJP against the Coronation Stakes, hadn’t seen this mentioned yet but Alpine Star actually ran a quicker time than Palace Pier carrying the same weight which is significant as she’d be getting 3lbs racing against the boys. They crawled through the SJP relative to the Coronation Stakes – Palace Pier has covered the final 2F in 23.39 compared to 25.75 for Alpine Star and yet she has still clocked the quicker time.
The notion that Pinatubo doesn’t stay a mile is nonsense he’s been placed now in two Group 1’s over a mile, one very strongly run and one which turned into a relative sprint so to me he isn’t short on either front but has bumped into two very good horses in Palace Pier and Kameko and he clearly doesn’t hold the same dominance he did at 2. That said I think we’ll see Wichita again in a better light when he’s not asked to make his own running and on quicker ground. It looks a good division and that’s before we factor in Siskin, any decisions about Pinatubo trip wise might be more down to finding opportunities for him to win Group 1’s than what is necessarily his best trip and after what Lord North did this week and it being the trip I suspect Kameko will end up best over 10F looks like a no go so he may end up over 6/7F before too long as that is undoubtedly a weaker group of horses.
Ebury ran very well from a group of 4 on the far side beaten just over 5L in the Buckingham Palace Handicap which opened the whole meeting on Tuesday. Didn’t have anything to take him into the race and having already won over a mile dropping back to 7F with no pace didn’t help. This was just his 3rd handicap start for Martyn Meade, his 2nd run since being gelded and I can see him playing a big part in the valuable mile handicaps this season and he may even get 10F being out of a Galileo mare.
Another one who wasn’t unlucky as such but appears to be a progressive filly in the sprinting division was Burmese Waltz for Archie Watson. She moved over from Ger Lyons this year and already won a fillies handicap at Kempton before running a huge race against the boys in the Silver Wokingham. There might be a handicap in her but if not she shouldn’t have any problems gaining minor black type at Listed/Group 3 level against her own sex.
The King George V Stakes handicap – loved the whole race think it’ll be very strong form going forwards and a couple caught my eye for various reasons – Subjectivist, Group One Power and Bodyline. The winner Hukum is being aimed at the Gordon Stakes and Great Voltigeur going forwards so literally a group horse in the handicap if those aspirations are to be fulfilled.
Just to add on Terebellum the Dahlia was very slowly run and they sprinted home (think it was 110%+ finishing sectional) so she isn’t short of speed I’m just not sure that race showed Queen Power to best effect and she didn’t have much else to beat for a Group 2.
Just a quarter of the field are Group 1 winners (Mustashry, Accidental Agent, Circus Maximus and Billedson Brook) and only Mustashry rated above 120 which says a lot about what we already knew about the mile division and it has been the case for a few seasons now. I’m not surprised a few who probably are better over further are chancing their arm here rather than in the Prince Of Wales.
Haven’t gone through the race properly yet but initial thoughts were that it was some statement of intent for Jim Crowley to pick Mohaather over Mustashry given what I’ve referred to above about the latters proven class level.
It might sound mad but I could well see Escobar running a big race given the big field scenario would be more familiar to the big handicaps he tends to run well in and the stiff finish will suit him down to the ground if they get racing too soon and this race might not take a 120+ normal Group 1 level to win its been a bit lower the last two years. He wasn’t on a going day at Newmarket but the way the track was riding was never going to suit a horse like him and this will be much more up his street. Space Traveller is another I like along with the course form from last year and Plumatic has a very interesting profile.
There is a real good mixture of horses who are operating close to their peak or might be slightly past it and others who have potential but at the same time need to show they can fulfil it.
I thought while English King was visually very impressive he’s probably beat a good horse in Berkshire Rocco but one who will need further than a Derby trip to be seen to best effect and he will almost certainly meet horses with a bit more toe and class at 12F at Epsom. Probably telling that Berkshire Rocco didn’t actually hold a Derby entry I don’t think. Hard to be too critical though the time compared very favourably with what was probably a weak Oaks trial, he’s proved he should be okay on the track and his preparation thus far has obviously gone well in that he’s made his trial and come through it with flying colours. There will be a lot of issues for other horses and preparations in this unusual season.
On Max Vega – we can sometimes get bogged down with collateral form and its dangerous to do it with 2 year old form moving into their 3 year old season, for all we know Max Vega might not have trained on or he might have just needed the run only time will tell but probably too early to say he’s not a very good horse and therefore Berkshire Rocco isn’t either.
I’d expect the bigger pointers for this year will probably come in the Ribblesdale and King Edward I can see them being very competitive affairs.
We might see Saturday just how valuable the likes of Wayne Lordan, Padraig Beggy and the team of jockeys at Ballydoyle are in the grand scheme of things to their operation and the tactics etc I’d imagine New World Tapestry would have been prime pace maker candidate ordinarily but can Adam Kirby do as good a job at that side of things as one of their own? It might well be irrelevant I thought they’d be going a good gallop in this anyway Mum’s Tipple (albeit stepping up in trip so may not be so handy), Military March, Kenzai Warrior, New World Tapestry as mentioned, Arizona and Wichita have both been handy in their races, there are plenty of pace angles in this and unlike the fillies race most of these are sure stayers who for some will want even further before long.
I’m not so concerned for Kameko he’s been handy enough himself in his races and Oisin Murphy is champion jockey for a reason I think he’ll have it in his own head already that he could find himself trapped he’ll make sure he does everything in his power to not let that happen. For what its worth he was very impressive in the Verterm Futurity off what was a strong pace and that performance to me showed a marked improvement in his attitude/focus as a racehorse for all the talent was evident in his previous runs. If he can translate that to turf and I don’t see why he can’t he has the physical scope Pinatubo doesn’t to improve some more as a 3 year old.
Regarding Arizona is it not telling that Ryan Moore picked Armory for the National Stakes and then Wichita for the Dewhurst? He’s been put in his place four times at Group 1 level and I can see Wichita overtaking him very soon as he wasn’t that far behind him in his first crack at a Group 1.
They are probably my two against the favourite, I like Military March as a horse but am not so keen on Hector Crouch at this very high level with all due respect to the lad.
As you say Ginger looks ripe for an upset to me but I haven’t done too much digging as to where that might be yet. I loved the way Boomer shaped in the fillies mile but she looked a slightly doubtful stayer to me although faster ground could help and being a year older etc… I just can’t envisage Dascombe training the 1000 Guineas winner.
I was keen to take Quadrilateral on myself and with the tongue tie I suspect even if it is nothing sinister punters will put 2&2 together and she’ll drift. If you don’t think its an issue then fill your boots when the drift happens. Love will attract money with Aidan’s record in the race, being his only runner and she is similarly bred to Hydrangea, Hermosa and Magical being a daughter of Galileo out of a Pivotal mare, she ticks a lot of boxes in that regard. I didn’t think she had many excuses in the Fillies Mile and she might just be a bit more average or alternatively Quadrilateral and Powerful Breeze might potentially be very good and she is just a good filly we just don’t know yet.
My concern with Millisle isn’t so much if she’ll stay its more that the Cheveley Park was quite strongly run and in my opinion fell into her lap a little bit and that run aside her form isn’t actually that much stronger than most of the others in the field. There are a few in there I’d have doubts about staying a mile before Millisle including Raffle Prize and that is what adds to the intrigue.
