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I’ve gone for Tarboosh EW as well and Copper Knight but in all honesty nothing would massively surprise me here.
Do you think they’ll put Madness away for another crack at the Portland VTC? It was half in my mind before they pulled him out that they might be aiming him at that longer term.
I’d be very much looking to get Dream Of Dreams beaten here his two runs in the Diamond Jubilee are outliers in his overall form profile and for a horse of his rating he’s only got 2 Listed wins to his name from 20 attempts at stakes company including in this race 2 years ago when Sir Dancealot beat him. He may well win, it isn’t the strongest Group 2 on paper but there are two horses here in Threat and Pierre Lapin who came into this season with serious reputations and Group 1 aspirations, neither have delivered as yet but it wouldn’t surprise you in the slightest if either did here. I was very taken by Surf Dancer at York last time, he looked as if he was at least a class better than the Listed class field he took apart and whilst I don’t know/fully appreciate the merits of the German formbook the trainer of Namos had a similar sort in Waldpfad who took Hackwood at Newbury and was later placed in the Haydock Sprint Cup. Namos didn’t shape badly at all in that July Cup either all things considered. Plenty to mull over but I’d be dead against the fav either way.
I can see Darain going to favouritism for this if he wins the Voltigeur. I know lots of people myself included are very sceptical of how strong the Irish Derby was given the impact of COVID this year, the 3rd has been beaten in a Listed contest today as 5/6Fav and if Darain wins the Voltigeur he probably be beating both horses Santiago has beaten in Tiger Moth and Berkshire Rocco. If he does that well surely he has to go into favouritism. I might back
The thing is I’d expect to see a decent Leger horse go past Nayef Road (particularly in what turned into a relative test of speed rather than stamina) – Logician did twice last season with ease, Kew Gardens would have, Capri despite the wheels coming off in his later years was a very good 3 year old who beat Stradivarius and Crystal Ocean in his Leger and Cracksman in his Irish Derby so as a 3 year old he would have…. the two before that were poor renewals and he almost certainly would have been good enough already to win them. Maybe this one will be too but if there is another one of the first three named lurking I’d be concerned Santiago might not be good enough. It is early days though and it could be a weak renewal we just don’t know. I shouldn’t have said I’d have torn up my ticket on him that was too strong without the evidence of what he’s likely to come up against so apologies
12-1 is a nice price Mike but I’d just be concerned a horse that couldn’t beat Nayef Road wouldn’t have the class to win a Leger normally. Maybe I’m being a touch harsh but Nayef Road was beaten easy enough in last years Leger, I’m not sure he’s improved that much if at all as a 4 year old.
The weight for age only makes a difference because many in racing – Timeform, Simon Rowlands etc feel the weight for age scale is too generous, there is no doubt Santiago is entitled to some weight for age but perhaps not that much
I’d be cashing in any Leger tickets if I held them on Santiago ran a nice enough race but couldn’t even get past Nayef Road despite having every chance, would be very surprised if there wasn’t one better to emerge from the Gordon and Voltigeur. Stradivarius is just a star isn’t he I thought he was in a world of trouble today when the pace lifted but he’s got through the gap and won easy as you like.
I can’t hide my disappointment over how uninspiring this race looks tomorrow after the treat we got last year between Enable and Crystal Ocean. Can you imagine the state of the 12F division when Enable retires and we have another crap Derby winner next year the writing is on the wall going forwards for flat racing at this trip.
Anythingtoday 50/1 e/w 6 places – won on the equivalent card last year when trained by O’Meara over 12F. Ran nice races for Roger Fell at Newcastle and behind Fifth Position at Doncaster this year and I’d forgive any horse a bad run on testing ground at Haydock as he did last time. Roger Fell puts cheekpieces on for the first time this season which the horse has worn on his last 4 winning appearances. With the headgear angle I suspect this might have been a longer term plan.
I’ll also have a little bit on Afaak 20/1 e/w as he ran very well last year off a 3lb higher mark when drawn in the car park, he’s got stall 1 this time. Shaped better than bare margins in the Hunt Cup racing too freely, hopefully that was just the freshness of the horse rather than an omen that he won’t get home over this longer trip. We know he has the class to win this type of race.
Another one for Marie’s Diamond, from a tactical perspective these are all hold up horses aren’t they bar Marie’s Diamond? Could get a bit messy in behind and Fanning might be able to dictate the fractions, much easier to do on this round mile than the straight mile of the Queen Anne which places more emphasis on stamina. San Donato is a fascinating one lots of good form but missed most of last year and you’d think looking at his form and on breeding he might want some cut in the ground.
I have a shortlist of 4 and the two Hamdan horses are on there but I think I’ll probably just back the other 2 win only as the Hamdan horses are taking out a good percentage of the book and this is a very competitive handicap.
Arigato is just a course and distance specialist clearly in good heart and gets on really well with Josephine Gordon, I know his two wins were on the Rowley track this season but he has also won on the July course and distance. I’m not sure where his improvement has come from but he shrugged off a big rise in the weights to comfortably hold off Blown By Wind last time and he may be able to do the same again up 5lbs.
Tomfre looked very unlucky at Sandown in a competitive 3 year old handicap last time and also has good course form. I though it was interesting they’ve come here when I’m sure there were plenty of suitable opportunities against his own age group at this time of year.
Godhead just missed the shortlist he won easy enough at Lingfield on his handicap debut although it wasn’t much of a race but the booking of Kieran O’Neill leaves me less than confident when Dettori is riding for Mark Johnston.
Best of luck whatever you back
They are running off level weights he gets weight for age as a 3 year old so he is a 118 rated 3 year old much the same as Hello Youmzain is a 118 rated 4 year old
I thought this was a lot more trappy than the betting made out but that’s mainly because I think Terebellum might have been slightly flattered by how the Queen Anne panned out, you definitely wanted to be up with the pace the front 3 didn’t come back to the field. Even then she’s not got masses in hand on a few of these on official ratings and she’s up against a couple of Group 1 winning mares who are more than capable on their day. I also suspect Nazeef might be one of these who is as good as Terebellum is officially rated but seems to just do enough to win her races at the moment. All in all with only the two places and seven runners where you could make a case for six of them I’ll pass but if I was playing Billesdon Brook always seems to find one big performance each season and 16/1 is perhaps a bit of an insult to her chances, Terebellum would be lay material for me if she touched odds on.
I’ll probably take a chance on Threat there wasn’t much between him and Golden Horde in last years Richmond at Goodwood and he clearly didn’t give his running for whatever reason when they met again in the Middle Park where he was sent off half the price of Golden Horde. I think the standard set by Golden Horde and Hello Youmzain is solid but not outstanding and Threat wouldn’t have loads to find, there’s every chance we have yet to see the best of him.
If it did come up rattling quick Khaadem is a big player I backed him at Ascot and felt he didn’t quite get home over that stiffer 6F, I think if they didn’t already have the standout 5F sprinter in the same ownership they might think about dropping him back at some stage.
Love’s been given the same rating as Enable was for her Oaks win by BHA of 122 to give the performance some context, Serpentine given 120 which is slightly more than Anthony Van Dyck and Wings Of Eagles but less than Masar and Harzand and some way below Golden Horn of the more recent winners.
On the point of proving herself in open company as it were, I think this is certainly true of novice hurdlers/chasers in a National Hunt setting but significantly less so on the flat, particularly where there aren’t that many superstar older horses still in training. If you looked at the mile division for example the top 3 year olds have in all likelihood already achieved as much if not more than Circus Maximus who is the benchmark for older milers.
Ham I did acknowledge his running style and the way he did it would account for some of the lengths but we cannot be sure that if he’d not injected the pace when he did he’d have been capable of utilising it to the same effect in the latter stages of his race. He got the lengths accelerating at a stage where nobody else was and he had an uncontested lead, he was wilting at the finish as it was that is factual so he clearly overdid it and if he’d been taken on more for that lead he would have overdone it even more battling with the other leader much the same way Passion and Tiempo Vuela did in the Oaks as they had each other for company. I’m not jumping to conclusions about the race, him or any of his rivals because ultimately I doubt we’ll see another Group race run like that to that extreme again this season, time will tell on all counts.
I wouldn’t be as buoyant as others about Enable’s efforts there Frankie was obviously very confident early on he’d be able to reel Ghaiyyath in sitting so far off the pace which is unusual for Enable particularly as she’s probably better over further but when the pace lifted to my eye she took a long time to see Deidre off initially and then didn’t really shrug off Japan until late on, never looked a winner. Perhaps they have left plenty to work on but if that is the case I’m disappointed in Gosden using a prestigious Group 1 as a stepping stone for another Group 1, albeit yes she can make history when they chose not to run the progressive Lord North. Take nothing away from the winner who always looked the winner, The Juddmonte looks ideal for him if he comes out of this okay but the Arc will always be problematic in that it will always be a big field and his run style will always be nullified over that trip by a bad draw or other front runners.
