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Very tricky race Mojito, Escobar and Indeed bring the winning form and are all ahead of the handicapper officially. Of the three I’d favour Escobar who got no luck in running here last year when travelling as well as any off 1lb higher, he’d have the least to prove of the three having run well from higher marks in the past but he’ll need the luck again with Spencer on top around here.
What’s The Story shaped very well in the closing stages of the John Smith Cup and Seniority’s prep just smacks of trying to get him back again here for a follow up attempt, very light campaign, Ryan Moore on top again. I’d love to see Zhui Feng go well he’s an old favourite and if he gets a soft lead here he’ll be hard to peg back at a course he likes.
In the end I’ve backed Baltic Baron each-way in the first time visor, 2nd run after a gelding op. We all know how well O’Meara tends to do with his french recruits and this one feels like a slow burner they’re just getting to the bottom of, I’ve noticed they changed how they rode him at York last time out. He’s handicapped on what he’s done but I’m banking on what he’s done being someway below what he might be capable of. Hopefully tomorrow he’ll show it on the track from a good draw.
He really is quite the enigma isn’t he, so headstrong and so much speed considering the pedigree and that was illustrated with the response to the whip Steeplechasing was talking about. Where does Mr Gosden go with him now? Stick at the mile or aim for the Foret or drop back to 6F? You can see the case for the Breeders Cup mile. I still wouldn’t be making excuses up for Ascot, he’s had a similar sized gap from his run in Ireland before Ascot to his gap between Deauville and today, perhaps the stiffer track did find him out. It’s humble pie time I was terribly harsh on Circus Maxmimus as well before today but he’s shown a lot of tenacity and made a good fist of it, probably needs a stiffer test at the mile but he’s justified his rating from Ascot. He reminds me a bit of Lancaster Bomber in that he’s not one of O’Brien’s most gifted horses and won’t go down in history but he’s a trier and you can’t fault a trier. Real head-scratcher for Phoenix Of Spain just never really kicked on from the front and wasn’t like he was staying on once headed either.
I think in terms of the 3 year olds there is a very solid but ultimately not up to winning a Group 1 horse in Skardu who links both Guineas and the St James Palace, in my opinion running to a similar standard in all three. He’s been beaten 4.25L by Magna Grecia where there was a generally accepted pace/track bias to which he was against but equally widely accepted Magna Grecia would have won the race regardless. He’s been beaten 3.75L by Phoenix Of Spain in Ireland again possibly where the margin of victory is influenced by a pace bias at the track but again I must stress the margin of victory for POS is such that he surely wins the race regardless. Within that same race Too Darn Hot is beaten 3L thus he finishes 0.75L in front of Skardu. At Ascot Skardu is beaten only 1.5L by Circus Maximus and he finishes 0.5L behind Too Darn Hot.
Even if you reduce POS’ winning margin in Ireland by half he’s still won by further than Circus Maximus did against Skardu and Too Darn Hot at Ascot. To me POS was travelling as well as anything to the 2F marker at Ascot and he just didn’t pick up. Charlie Hills has mentioned about him being sore afterwards and I will always forgive a horse one bad run if it was clearly too bad to be true, particularly where the market has completely over-reacted in his price. He was 5/2 at Ascot against Too Darn Hot’s 2/1F and now he’s double the price of Circus Maximus and bigger to Too Darn Hot. It’s not as if he’s run to that level in Ireland out of the blue, he was every bit as good a 2 year old as Circus Maximus and ran well behind Too Darn Hot who I do not think is performing to that same level. I don’t think there were any excuses for Too Darn Hot at Ascot even if there were at other stages this season, hHe was keen but he was in a good position throughout compared to King Of Comedy and unlike POS he saw his race out fine in finishing 3rd, he either didn’t stay or he didn’t have the heart to battle toe-to-toe with Circus Maximus. I’m not sure which but it doesn’t inspire confidence in me either way. I can’t have him back over a mile in similar circumstances – granted it’s an easier mile but it’s a small field, there might not be much pace on and I can see him yanking Frankie’s arms off again all the way round. If you are Ryan Moore you’re thinking same again with the pace.
I’m prepared to swallow humble pie tomorrow and I half expect to the way Gosden and Dettori keep mopping up these big races up but you have to ignore trainer and jockey form to some extent because it can cloud your honest assessment of a horse racing for them. I’d suggest the market are very divided on him as well, you have to think he’d be odds on, particularly given said connections form and bookies being scared of them, if the backers (and to some extent layers) truly believed he was back to his best and he’ll replicate somewhere near that tomorrow under these conditions.
Edit: sorry to waffle Phoenix Of Spain is my selection at the prices
I have no idea why Zaaki’s favourite he’s got the worst draw, he’s dropping back from a mile which I don’t think he wants particularly and most crucially of all I thought he hated coming down the hill at Epsom despite winning there earlier in the season, looked badly outpaced at one stage over 8.5F before getting up comfortably enough close home, the undulations and downhill section of this in a better race could find him out.
Hey Gaman looks rock solid really and ticks all the boxes. I’m just a bit unsure about him on the track as he’s quite a big horse and might be better on more conventional tracks but I’d have him as favourite.
That said Watching back last years race pretty much everything that could go wrong went wrong for Sir Dancealot and he still managed to win, should have been by further than the winning margins so I’d expect him to confirm form with Suedois and Breton Rock and Donjuan Triumphant who had a very wide draw that day (he’s not drawn brilliantly here) and had plenty of use made out of him to get across and then when in front, he stayed on well to only go down narrowly and he wouldn’t be a 25/1 shot for me but I don’t see him winning. Most of the rain should miss Goodwood before Tuesday, looks dry today and was good ground when last reported yesterday.
I’ll wait for today’s going report but if it’s still good ground and forecast little to no rain I’ll be backing Sir Dancealot to follow up, I’m a big horses for courses man and you can write off his two runs this season over a mile as he doesn’t stay that far and the ground was much too soft at York last time, his Lockinge run was actually okay considering that was a Group 1 over a mile.
I’d imagine Platinum Star already having run four times compared to Visinari only have run twice might have something to do with it, on paper Visinari has the greater scope for improvement and there was only a head between them at Newmarket. The other thing with Platinum Star is relative to the favourite Pinatubo, he’s had already been resoundingly beaten albeit at Wolverhampton both were making their debuts, on jockey bookings and the owners colours they raced in even on that debut run it was clear who was Godolphin’s first string. I wouldn’t rule out anything bar Milltown Star here though looks a cracking race.
Superb race and pretty much everything went wrong for her early doors, I thought she was in a world of trouble turning for home but Frankie never panicked and she’s tough as nails she looks like she’d run through brick walls to win her races.
To clear up a few things I’ve seen mentioned here about her travelling further than him – according to Will Aitkenhead on Twitter (works for Ascot, will have access to the tracking data they’ve had at Ascot all season which hasn’t been published yet for today) she went 1.9 metres further which in context means she travelled 0.08% further than him, Simon Rowlands reckons it equates to 0.75 lengths not a huge difference maker imo, you can lose that at the start, he was probably as wide as her for most of the race bar the initial bit where she had to be taken back by Frankie. The same source (Will Aitkenhead) states her final 3F sectional was 0.4 secs faster (just over 2 lengths), by my rough calculations equates to around 99.9% finish speed for Enable, 98.9% for Crystal Ocean, Simon Rowlands makes the par for Ascot’s 12F for a 3F sectional 99.6% so she appears to have run more or less the perfect race on the face of it in spite of her being shuffled back, the pace was very honest and he has finished his race off slightly slower than par having raced closer to it. My initial impression was that she’d outstayed him, he went to the rail under pressure and even though he’s battled on I think she had a bit more in the tank where he’s on fumes. I’m just delighted the first three have run their races it was superb to watch just what the flat racing needed on terrestrial TV.
Behind all of that Waldegeist has run a massive race, easily his best outside of France and probably a PB anywhere. Given I always felt he’d shown his best form at Longchamp so far in his career he has to be taken very seriously for the Arc.
I’ve been following Admirality all season raymo61 and he is 1lb well in from the Bunbury Cup run where I backed him. The obvious thing when you watch his races is he is a huge horse who travels really powerfully but doesn’t seem to want to do much when he gets to the front which has been an issue on his last few starts, they fitted a hood for the Bunbury run to try and take some of the zest out of the way he travels but to my eye it didn’t make any difference. I suspect they might try and drop him in and play him late and it’s interesting they’ve booked Oisin Murphy who I can’t recall riding for the yard much if ever. Big negative with the weather if it gets much softer, he should handle it looking at him physically but he ran no race at all on heavy at Haydock and probably slightly underperformed on it at Hamilton last time, his wins have all come on good or good-firm ground. If they can get him to finish his races off I think he could rate a fair bit higher than his mark but it is a big if at the moment and I’m not sure Ascot and softer ground will suit him today so I’ve abandoned him for now.
I’ve no idea what the draw will do but I’m backing both of Roger Charlton’s runners who are drawn near either flank, Makzeem is 3lbs well in for his win at Newbury last week and always threatened to be a very decent horse when things went right. He ran well in this in 2017 of a much lower mark but he has rated as high as 105 and that win last time looks a career best. Blue Mist ran very well in the Victoria Cup first time up this season and seems to save his best for Ascot. He’s still fairly unexposed and I can see him being a mid 100’s horse when they get to the bottom of him. I can forgive any horse a bad run so I’ll draw a line through his Ayr run which must be the only reason there are 20’s around for him.
Spoiler tactics in place potentially from Ballydoyle? It hasn’t been working using just Hunting Horn as a pacemaker so they’ve chucked 3 of them in there knowing that Crystal Ocean and Enable will both probably want to sit handy in behind the pace they could try and trap at least one of them against the rail making AVD’s task that little bit easier? There must have been other more realistic options coming up certainly for Magic Wand against her own sex. Hopefully I’m just being overly cynical, I’d hate to see what could be the race of the season ruined by one of the principals being unable to showcase their true ability.
I thought it was interesting they are running Fanaar when he’d probably have had a much better chance in the mile 3YO race which precedes this, obviously the winning prize money is vastly inferior. For all that he was sent off 50/1 for the Britannia in a similar sized field and he ran a cracker and was with hindsight overpriced, Haggas has tried him in two different sets of headgear on his last two starts despite him running perfectly respectably in the cheek pieces at Goodwood he went to blinkers for Ascot which suggests to me they think he’s handicapped to his best and they need a little extra. Another 2lbs higher in the weights and up against older horses in another big field, dropped back to 7F when he was staying on nicely over the mile at Ascot, I’m not sure he’s my idea of the winner, not at 16/1 anyway but I wish you well VTC he was on my radar and is a nice horse.
It’s looking a tricky puzzle because all the obvious ones from the big handicaps this season are handicapped to finish in a line across the track and I’ve followed Ripp Orf too far over the cliff already this season. He’s probably the best handicapped on last years best and this is his bread and butter if he gets in but he’s not looked the same horse as last year and the yard have only had 1 winner on turf all season.
I like Larchmont Lad as well VTC he’ll love the trip and ground and is too big a price on that alone given he’s not run in many handicaps. Blue Mist is very high on my radar, he caught my eye in the Victoria Cup and although I think he’ll be better over a mile, if they ran him here and Jason Watson chose him over Makzeem (3lb well in under his penalty) that would really get me interested. As it is he’s a similar price to Fanaar which doesn’t tempt me in antepost. Arbalet was my other one but Paul Kealy’s probably ruined the price by putting him up in the RP Weekender
I’m not sure if that’s a wind up Frenchy15. I will agree with you that it was a weak St James Palace, Circus Maximus won’t win another Group 1 in his career unless they place him very well imo and if they aim him lower he’ll have to saddle a Group 1 penalty. I’ll retract what I said earlier in this thread about it being as bad as last years, that was far worse. KOC is a better horse than Without Parole I’m pretty sure of that much. The race couldn’t have gone any worse for him he’s been beaten by a horse who’s been up with the pace off a crawl and who stays further so was always going to be tough to reel in and KOC has shown all his greenness, hung across the track, he’s had to pass everyone off said sedate pace, he’s only just gone down having stepped up from Listed company into a Group 1. The caveat to his form is that it was a strong Listed contest (Heron) with Sangarius franking the form and it was a weak Group 1 as far as the St James Palace goes, mainly because the English and French Guineas winners weren’t at Ascot and the Irish Guineas winner ran no sort of race, so the gulf isn’t as wide as it might appear on paper. If Gosden can sort out the greenness and the quirks he’s far far from the finished article but that isn’t a given and if he shows said tendencies to hang at a track as undulating as Goodwood he could be in a spot of bother. I’d be inclined to take him on not because I think he’s not good enough but because he might not be professional and streetwise enough taking on older horses.
I can’t see anything absolutely chucked in here bar possibly Setting Sail who’s not chucked in on what he’s achieved but I can still see being a Group horse before the end of the season. Stylehunter is probably the one on the fairest mark and could go the same way. He’d be my idea of favourite now. Everybody else I think the handicapper is close to having right or has done too much winning already – the likes of Mountain Angel etc..
For all that the one who I keep coming back to is My Lord And Master for William Haggas. Fair bit of guess work involved as to how fit he’ll have him first time up but he ran a cracker over course and distance off 1lb higher last year under young Fallon and is better off at the weights with Aasheq and Aquarium for it. He was a big 3 year old and I’m hoping this ground won’t hinder him too much if it’s too lively but he’s been gelded in interim and he’s another who if he goes the right way could make up into a lower level Group horse in time. He could just have been trained with this race in mind all along.
I’ve backed Aasheq as well (sorry to jinx it VTC :whistle:) I can definitely see the pace angle and the race was stolen from the front by Euchen Glen last year. I think he’s more been trained for this than Aquarium (if Johnston trains them with anything in mind) having been left since Chester whereas he’s normally run quite regularly being a hardy, consistent sort. The ground is ideal for him. He is slightly better off at the weights on his form this year with Aquarium and Aquarium also ran a shocker at Haydock LTO which I have to factor in. On balance I can’t see him winning off 103 so I’ve left him there having already backed 2.
My Lord And Master EW 16/1
Aasheq EW 25/1Interestingly Simon Rowlands has put Aasheq up in his Rowleyfile preview on Timeform highlighting the potential lack of pace in the race.
Nice price on Burnt Sugar VTC he’s half those odds now.
I’m delighted they’ve stuck a hood on Admirality he ran again at Leicester since I mentioned him and just like his run at York he travelled supremely near the pace but got headed close home off a big weight. It might be that he’s over-racing a touch in getting to the lead and the hood could be the key to getting him to see out his races better. I think he’s got a good draw as well, expecting the two Johnston runners in 19 and 14 to go forwards. Not sure there’s a massive amount of pace on low if there is any bias from that point of view.
Of those near the front of the market Solar Gold looks the proverbial handicap blot for Haggas running well in two fillies Listed races against the 2nd from the Commonwealth Cup up at Haydock over 6F. I’d be pretty certain she’s a fair bit better than 96 (she’s officially 1lb well in already). 10/1 is probably fair enough, I think she’ll be very close to going off fav. Crossing The Line isn’t as unexposed and carries more weight but has similar claims on their last run at Chelmsford at a bigger price.
I’d be keen to get Spanish City beat, without wanting to be too harsh he’s the ultimate bridal merchant and I expect he’ll come travelling like a dream here again and get outbattled by something that’s off the bridal long before him but wants to win more.
Ripp Orf’s been given a real chance by the handicapper dropped 5lbs since the season started and if you can ignore his Epsom run (he ran a shocker there last year as well in amongst his good form)- his runs in the Lincoln and Victoria Cup were decent and Gerald Mosse should be a really good fit as a jockey for his style. He is better at Ascot’s 7F but has won here over a mile and his odds look a little too big if he’s not hindered by being drawn low.
Of those at much bigger prices I will have a swing at Zap for Richard Fahey off bottom weight. He’s done nothing much this season but won the Silver Bunbury last year and won his side of the draw in the International at Ascot last year off significantly higher marks than this. He’s a wild price for a reason but one of those horses who can just pop up out of nowhere. First time visor applied too I see which is interesting and he’s Fahey’s only entry which is unusual he normally floods these big handicaps.
Admirality EW 5 places 14/1 (main fancy)
Ripp Orf EW 20/1 boost with Ladbrokes
Zap EW 35/1 boost with Ladbrokes as above.It’s a funny game some people write today off for Visinari as if he’s taken a massive step backwards purely because he’s gone off a short price and been beaten. I thought he ran very well against more experienced colts in a warmer contest than his maiden. I’d be more disappointed by Guildsman’s run because he’d already stepped up into stronger company and ran well, Oisin did his best to run up the backside of the leaders but in all honesty he never looked like winning and he’s probably run to a similar standard again and isn’t the biggest physically. This might be as good as it gets for him.
He’s been declared I see VTC and I can see him going very well, his form ties in with Aquarium who’s also a huge price at 33’s in places. I haven’t properly had a look at the race yet just formed a provisional shortlist but the race got more interesting with Afaak and Setting Sail being drawn out in the car park, I know horses have done well from high draws in the past but it certainly makes it tricky to get a decent birth from being drawn that far out.
Perhaps the comparison with Natalie’s Joy was a touch unfair and I do apologise for that it was a touch lazy on my part but she did spring to mind immediately when I looked at the race being a 2 year old for the same trainer off one run going into a better race at a short enough price (for me at least). I understand she didn’t run to form in the Chesham but the example highlights my very issue about Visinari tomorrow – he is a 2 year old having just his 2nd start, there is very little to go off.
For what it’s worth I was very impressed by Visinari as well and the point about time was that a lot of the praise I heard from the better pundits in the racing media or at least the ones I respect were more commenting on the time versus Flavius Titus’ time in a handicap over the same course and distance. I haven’t seen the sectionals for either race to say whether they would actually be fairly comparable but I believe Timeform and Top Speed were suitably impressed with Visinari and indeed Simon Rowlands of ATR who is one of the best around at judging around in this area has tipped Visinari for tomorrow and is very complimentary about his stride length etc…
I don’t even take issue about him being favourite because he did manage it over the same course and distance he runs over tomorrow which counts for a lot and as Ginger quite rightly points out wasn’t a luxury afforded by Natalie’s Joy. Guildsman didn’t win the Coventry and officially the handicapper has erred on the side of caution/negativity towards the Coventry in terms of the ratings afforded to the principles relative to historical performances in the race. I took a more positive view of the front 3 but I must stress 2 year olds aren’t my area of speciality hence me not being able to confidently back a short priced favourite in a Group race at the level stakes I tend to bet at. I personally think the prices are wrong between the first two in the market and Guildsman is an acceptable price for me to get involved.
raymo61 Kings Advice was an my shortlist for the very reason you mentioned, I didn’t think he’d stay the Northumberland trip and they rode him like he wouldn’t stay and he flew home late on. Back down in trip I can see him being bang there. I hadn’t realised Hugo Palmer’s in such rotten form, hasn’t sent a winner out in over 2 weeks and that’s put me off Collide at the last minute, I think he could do with more rain than they’ll get if they get any. Back to the drawing board for me. Tricky puzzle
Edit:
I’m sticking to my guns the York run in particular is very strong form, Corgi and Fujaira Prince both ran well in the Duke Of Edinburgh and Caliburn was just behind and won next time up (Caliburn’s 5lbs higher now) and there’s been bits of good form right through the field.
