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I’ve got a shortlist of A Momentofmadness, Wentworth Falls, Gunmetal, Orvar and Teruntum Star probably in that order but it’d be pure speculation as to what state Griffiths has got Teruntum Star into so it’ll be a watching brief for him but one to monitor over the coming weeks, I have it in my head and in fairness the formbook seems to back up that Orvar will want softer than the good-firm ground we have at the moment so I’ll pass on him as well.
A Momentofmadness (12/1) and Gunmetal (16/1) appeal more as win only bets at this point as I make them both all or nothing sorts in terms of their overall profiles and the context of this big field. I think other than maybe Muthmir they would be the two best handicapped horses in the race who wouldn’t surprise me if they won.
Wentworth Falls (20/1) makes more sense to split the stakes as an each-way selection mainly on account of him not winning a race since April 2017 and having a string of 2 and 3’s against his form profile. He’ll need luck in running as well with his hold up style but this is his course and he was mighty unlucky last year.
Thank god we’ve finally got a decent sized field for a race at Doncaster this week which isn’t either a 2 year old sales race or a fillies/mare group race
I was staggered how badly so many of the Group races in particular have cut up this week it really doesn’t reflect well on the meeting imo.Will look at this one closer later on today when I have more time but Wentworth Falls right at the bottom of the handicap jumps out to me immediately, he’s something of a course specialist who hasn’t done his winning yet this season but largely been running well. Pieces go back on to replace the visor from last time out which I think would have been a pipe opener at Thirsk following a mini-break. He’s well handicapped on a few bits of form and was 3rd in this last year off 4lbs higher.
Although he’ll be the roughie on most books I always thought Teruntum Star could have been a group horse for Kevin Ryan but he’s clearly gone off the rails somewhat and he’s an intriguing runner on his first start for David Griffiths who does well with his older sprinters, another who looks well handicapped if the old spark can be ignited.
Bielsa and A Momentofmadness look obvious contenders and Gunmetal might finally be a backable price off a couple of lesser efforts. Just glancing through the runners I know well the pace is largely drawn mid-high and that’s generally the place to be in this with the last 8 winners drawn in double digits so perhaps that draw could have been kinder to Gunmetal and Wentworth Falls.
I wanted to have a bet myself on Delphinia ironically Jack because I thought she was crying out for a step up in trip on her form this season and her Oaks run wasn’t that bad but the more I looked at it the more I’ve decided to leave the race alone. O’Brien has never won this and his recent record bar Pretty Perfect running Simple Verse close in 2016 is pretty crap. For what it’s worth Seanie gave Pretty Perfect a cracking ride that day. It looks on paper as if he just throws his lesser fillies and mares into this and hopes for the best and him having four in again doesn’t fill me with confidence. Ultimately Delphinia was no less promising in the Oaks than Manuela De Vega and she’s subsequently been beaten out of sight by Enbihaar so it’s hard to be positive on that line of thought.
We’ve got a dead eight situation which would be good on the day but it’s only Tuesday and if we get a late withdrawal the race becomes far less appealing because I think the favourite is rock solid and on collateral form I don’t think Dame Malliot has that much to find with her and looks solid for one of the other places. If you were using Klassique as a yardstick from the Lancashire Oaks and in the Prix De Pamone where I think she’s run to a similar standard then Dame Malliot really could give Enbihaar something to think about. Ultimately she isn’t proven at the trip whereas Enbihaar most definitely is. That said Dame Malliot could improve for the step up in trip and is a lovely big filly who is getting 10lbs in weight for age from Enbihaar and given the allowance is there to negate physical progress it looks on the generous side in this instance.
On official ratings you can throw a blanket over most of the others and they are all open to progress being 3 year old fillies. Should be a good watch and I do wish you well Jack with your bet but I think I’ll find better value 14/1 bets this week than I’d get on Delphinia in this instance.
To be honest as much as I like Hello Youmzain I can’t argue with Advertise’s price as favourite, I thought he’d be a bit shorter and he might well be once Ten Sovereigns is inevitably withdrawn.
Forever In Dreams price also looks a bit on the big side from an each-way POV. Khaadem was might impressive in the Stewards Cup but much for the same reasons that I don’t like Dream Of Dreams I don’t like him here – they went very fast in the Stewards Cup early doors, Ornate in particular went out like it was a 4F race. I don’t see it here on a different track on different ground. He’s a buzzy sort who would have thrived off that big field pace and although he does excite me the most of this field going forwards as I think he has a lot of potential, I don’t think tomorrow will seem him to best effect. He looks too short for me.
Won’t be doing anything before Ten Sov’s gets pulled because it’ll be a pointless rule 4 incoming. Intriguing race in store!
The question is what is running to form as far as Dream Of Dreams goes? He looked unlucky at Royal Ascot but my interpretation is that he’s always been a strong traveller, often held up, he got the perfect set-up from the early fractions Kachy set in the Diamond Jubilee and the stiff finish of Ascot baring in mind he’s a 7F winner with placed form in two group races over 7F last season. The scenario clearly did not suit many of the other fancied runners who have performed well below their best. Some will believe he’s a Stoute late improver etc.. who was probably coming in off the back of a career best at Windsor – but do remember that was a Listed contest he won at Windsor. Reality is his overall record does not mirror that of a horse rated 119. 17 group/Listed races to date with 2 Listed wins to show and 13 of those 17 runs were over 6F.
His best RPR before Ascot was 115 and prior to that a string of 113’s from last season. Even if I felt he could replicate his Royal Ascot run again at some stage I don’t think it’ll be here. If the going gets testing we’ll be looking at a much smaller field than the 17 who lined up in the Diamond Jubilee (14 at the moment entered her but half are between Aidan O’Brien and Kevin Ryan) and there’s not the same explosive pace angle Kachy brought to that race, presuming Ten Sovereigns finds this too soon after York you’ve got Forever In Dreams and Major Jumbo as plausible pace angles. On the subject of the going if it gets that bad Haydock soft tends to be a different proposition to soft in most other parts of the country
I love The Tin Man and my login name is based around him and he’s got a tremendous record in this race but he looked to me in the Hackwood like he may have gone at the game, at least at the highest level. I know he’s flopped a few times down the years as most sprinters do but generally he gets turned over in Group 1 company or on his seasonal reappearance, I couldn’t see any excuses in what looked a desperate renewal of a race he’s won in the past for all Khaadem did come out and win the Stewards Cup, he wasn’t given the best ride in the Hackwood as is interesting here.
The Tin Man also has history against him with only one repeat winner of the race which came in the first two years of it back in 1966 & 67 although it should be noted when I was going back through the records to 2000 only 6 horses actually tried to win the race again with Gordon Lord Byron going closest in 2014 after winning in 2013 in recent-ish times.
Brando looks a better shout given he’s shown the fire does still burn at the highest level with his run in the Maurice De Gheest and the stats for horses trying again and winning does look better on paper with The Tin Man, Gordon Lord Byron, Society Rock, Red Clubs and Pipalong all succeeding where they had previously failed in the race since 2000. That’s a decent stat given that there have been 8x 3 year old winners in that spell who couldn’t have run in the race at a previous stage as the conditions changed to exclude 2 year olds in 1994. To be honest even though I don’t think he’s up to this level the biggest priced older horse that catches the eye who also fits the pattern would be Speak In Colours who was down the field here last year but ran very well in the Diamond Jubilee and then has been in a few races that haven’t seen him to best effect over 7F since. He’s run okay still and has always struck me as one who could outrun his price and go very close in one of these.
On balance I suspect the 3 year olds have this again, they won four on the spin prior to last year where the Commonwealth Cup looked a dodgy renewal and since its inception Muhaarar skipped this but Quiet Reflection won both, Harry Angel took the crown after being 2nd behind Caravaggio who didn’t come here. Harry Angel and Quiet Reflection also had winning the Sandy Lane over course and distance in common and I really like Hello Youmzain’s progress if he comes here, especially with that course and distance form in the book. He does have work to do to overturn the form with Advertise but I think that is reflected in the price differential and with natural improvement which he’s entitled to, he could bridge the gap having only run 6 times to Advertise’s 9. If I like him I’d have to like the filly Forever In Dreams as well at an even bigger price, she’ll be getting both a 3 year old and fillies allowance and is another course and distance winner. 3 year olds dominated the July Cup and if you take Battaash out of the Nunthorpe you’ve still 3 year olds hitting the frame in Soldiers Call and So Perfect.
No bets for now but Hello Youmzain is the main fancy until we get a clearer picture of likely runners and weather.
Raymond Tusk and Dramatic Queen for me.
Raymond Tusk was far from disgraced tried to take on Crystal Ocean in the Aston Park Stakes, would have probably finished 2nd but for trying to actually beat him with a big race move. He was trying to give Dee Ex Bee 5lbs in the Sagaro first time up this season and wasn’t beaten far over a trip that probably stretches him. Had Cleonte behind him who he was also giving weight to and that one went and won at Royal Ascot. In the Gold Cup he was dropped out stone last by Spencer when he’s usually be ridden a lot more prominently and it was obvious to me they didn’t think he’d stay 2M 4F hence riding him that way, he plodded on through beaten horses in a race which wouldn’t have been run to suit even if he did stay. He was always a big 3 year old who’d probably need time to show his best, today might be the day although he does have a tricky wide draw for one who’ll probably want to be fairly handy.
Dramatic Queen has a lot on her plate being a girl in this race, if it was a conditions race/group race she’d probably be getting more weight off most of them as a sex allowance but I can’t ignore her course and distance win in the Group 3 Bronte Cup where we all know how good Enbihaar looked in the Lillie Langtry subsequently. The two of them pulled clear of a subsequent two time winner in Bayshore Freeway and they are both very closely matched on not only the Bronte Cup but also the Lancashire Oaks where they both pulled clear of Klassique who’s been Group 2 placed in France since. If Enbihaar’s now judged to be rated 113 after bolting up in the Lillie Langtry where Dramatic Queen ran no sort of race there could be some scope in Dramatic Queen off 107.
Taken the 8 places as my shortlist was about 11 horses lol. Ben Vrackie would be my idea of the biggest danger but I couldn’t back him at the price and his run style will need a lot of luck.
I was looking back through Ten Sovereigns sectionals from Ascot compared to Newmarket and it just goes to show how very different the two 6F courses are plus the differing ground conditions. I mean to most it’s quite obvious Ascot poses the stiffer test but the numbers really helped put it into perspective for me.
Nobody went sub 11 seconds for any of the Commonwealth Cup and Ten Sovereigns fastest sectional was 11.15 seconds. I should point out this wasn’t just down to it being at Ascot, the ground played a part too as everybody went sub 11 seconds at some stage of the Diamond Jubilee and around half the field managed it in the Wokingham, both on faster ground, but the sub 11 second furlong would literally just be a single furlong of the six. By contrast at Newmarket the entire field in the July Cup ran sub 11 seconds for furlongs 2, 3, 4 and all of the first 7 home did the 5th furlong sub 11 seconds too. Just goes to show how easily the turnaround in form between Ten Sovereigns and Advertise is explained by the greater speed test Newmarket posed, indeed backed up by Advertise following up in the Maurice De Gheest over the extended 6.5F in Deauville. That’s a very good horse Ten Sovereigns has beaten comprehensively and if he can keep tabs on this pace he could run riot in that final furlong when the others won’t have the ability to sustain it.
I can’t explain why Battaash runs so badly at York or at least he has done to date. A school of thought might be that he’s a bit of a flat track bully choosing to show his best in Group 2 company or lower but being found wanting in Group 1 company, he does still have the sole success at Chantilly in the Abbaye in 2017 from 6 Group 1 attempts which is ridiculous when you are talking about a horse rated as highly as he is and regarded as the best sprinter in Britain by many. Perhaps that illustrates one of the flaws with official ratings in Group races, you get horses like Battaash who are capable of running away with races and putting up the odd outstanding performance then you get your Stradivarius’ who beats everything in his division every day of the week but because he only does it by what he has to he appears on ratings to have little in hand, indeed he’s supposedly 1lb inferior to Dee Ex Bee tomorrow under his penalty but the betting tells the whole story.
Back to the Nunthorpe, I like Soldiers Call’s price relative to Mabs Cross given they are very closely matched on the two bits of form they have against each other he was beaten by her in the Abbaye by a neck where Battaash under performed in 4th, which was a colossal effort for a 2 year old at the time. He’s turned the tables in the Kings Stand beating her by a nose and yes he had the run of the race but actually she’s come to claim him for 3rd and he’s battled back up Ascot’s hill. That toughness will stand him in good stead with the likely pace tussle. There’s a big price discrepancy because she went so close last year and because Dods trained Meccas Angel to win the race twice and in my opinion there’s not much between them on ability.
If there is to be a shock this race won’t take much winning necessarily as Alpha Delphini only needed to run to 115 last year. That would take both the principles to vastly under perform but it does happen.
I wasn’t impressed by Battaash at Goodwood given the level of opposition he faced and that we know the track suits him well, he was never in danger of being beaten but I’d like to have seen him put a bit more distance between himself and what was basically a Group 3/Listed standard of opponent – El Astronaute was the 2nd highest rated in the field on the day. It was strange because I was convinced he’d ran better at Ascot than he did last year and he was as impressive at Haydock as last year but Goodwood definitely wasn’t for me.
I’m really not sure about Ten Sovereigns either over 5F as he was most impressive in the closing stages of the July Cup. If he can lay up and not be outpaced with what’s sure to be a well-run 5F pace with Ornate, El Astronaute, Copper Knight, Soldiers Call etc… all probably not nearly good enough to win but fast horses in the early stages of a race, he will surely be flying at the finish.
I’m not convinced Mabs Cross has improved again this season and although she was unlucky last year, what price would you make Alpha Delphini this year? She was 14/1 last year and doesn’t appeal nearly as much at single figures.
I have no idea yet what I’ll be backing it’s a bit of a minefield.
If you take the ceiling of the race on official ratings it looks weak for a race of it’s stature and prize money. The last 5 top weights were 107, 109, 109, 104, 103. This year Vintage Brut is technically the top weight off 102 but he gets WFA being a 3 year old.
My personal viewpoint is it’s easier for the top weights to give weight away when the class of the race is questionable and even more so when you think there aren’t exactly many lurkers near the bottom of the handicap – Venturous and Poyle Vinnie are actually veterans by all accounts. There’s only 1x 3 year old who happens to be the top weight.
On that basis alone you’d have to give a strong shout out to the 1-2 from last year and particularly the winner Gunmetal who I’d make a clear favourite with a better draw given he won a better renewal very easily last year and probably would have done so carrying whatever weight you chucked at him. There’s plenty of pace on high again – Staxton, Vintage Brut, Ice Age, Belated Breath…. and that tempers enthusiasm for the two bringing arguably the strongest form into the race in Gunmetal and Summerghand courtesy of their Wokingham efforts which has thrown out numerous very good subsequent performances this season already from the likes of Tis Marvellous, Danzeno and Raucous, they are both drawn very low and I don’t see much pace down there and coupled with the suspected slight bias the other side it would be a concern at their respective prices.
Ice Age and Intisaab have very good course form and have dropped to very handy marks, both have a touch of class but I don’t trust Ice Age this season and Intisaab is hard to win with and will probably be held-up which I don’t want to see in this race.
I think Lake Volta will probably run a big race off his gradually slipping mark with last years race winning jockey Joe Fanning on board and he might be my 2nd selection but I too can’t help but feel that there might be something with Vintage Brut. It’s a tough task shouldering what is effectively top weight for a 3 year old against older sprinters and he’s not been in the best of form this season but when he got his conditions last year, particularly in the Rockingham, he looked better than a handicapper and if the blinkers work the oracle in what is his first handicap and the rain does fall he may well return to form here under David Allan. I’m certainly prepared to take a chance at the prices anyway! AND BREATH!
I’d be expecting quite a few will swerve this, particularly if the going does end up soft with the City Of York Stakes having the exact same race conditions over 7F next week and a bigger prize pot. No idea why we have this situation with 7F group horses it wasn’t that long ago we had the Lennox (also a G2) but hardly anything before or after.
I was watching back the last 5 runnings of this and the consolation yesterday as my early prep for the race and I think from memory nearly all of them bar Mattmu came up the nearside (high draws), he broke from a draw closer to the far side and David Allan made a beeline for that rail and made pretty much all. He did it earlier in the season at Ripon on Hyperfocus too so shows you can win from the other side, he’s one to note on jockey bookings as he rides the track very well. The overriding theme of those renewals and racing generally at Ripon on the sprint courses seems to be that you need something on or near the pace so I’ll be scrubbing off most renowned hold up horses personally as a starting point and probably keeping an eye on the weather and that draw, particularly if there are trailblazers near the nearside rail which I’d still just about favour.
Went with Raucous in the end 50’s 5 places on exchange rather than El Hombre, he’s 2lbs wrong under his penality but I wasn’t expecting that big a price given the form he’s in and he’s gone close in the race previously, ran really well in the Wokingham. Drawn in 18 which I think is close enough to plenty of potential pace angles – Ornate (15), Vanbrugh (16), Air Raid (12) Justanotherbottle (9) is a bit lower but I expect he’ll be able to tag onto that group easy enough. Young Fallon junior would be quite the story winning this and he’s building up quite the relationship with this horse. Worth noting claiming jockey’s filled 3 of the first 4 home last year from 8 claiming jockeys riding in the race including the top 2, might be nothing but could be an angle worth looking into going forwards with these massive field handicaps if history repeats itself
No time to explain because I’ll need to get to work and been up since 5.30am looking at the race. I’ve joined you guys with Arecibo I can’t explain the 33/1 looks madness.
I expect I’ll be able to get any price I like on El Hombre so I’ll be holding fire on him but he ran a very nice race after a break in the Gosforth Park Cup over a trip too short and fast ground 6F would be his ideal conditions on turf, he’s got no weight at all either and I think an okay draw. He’s 50/1 in places which looks worth a go but I might get bigger on exchanges so I’ll wait and see as he comes from an unfashionable yard up north.
Very tricky race Mojito, Escobar and Indeed bring the winning form and are all ahead of the handicapper officially. Of the three I’d favour Escobar who got no luck in running here last year when travelling as well as any off 1lb higher, he’d have the least to prove of the three having run well from higher marks in the past but he’ll need the luck again with Spencer on top around here.
What’s The Story shaped very well in the closing stages of the John Smith Cup and Seniority’s prep just smacks of trying to get him back again here for a follow up attempt, very light campaign, Ryan Moore on top again. I’d love to see Zhui Feng go well he’s an old favourite and if he gets a soft lead here he’ll be hard to peg back at a course he likes.
In the end I’ve backed Baltic Baron each-way in the first time visor, 2nd run after a gelding op. We all know how well O’Meara tends to do with his french recruits and this one feels like a slow burner they’re just getting to the bottom of, I’ve noticed they changed how they rode him at York last time out. He’s handicapped on what he’s done but I’m banking on what he’s done being someway below what he might be capable of. Hopefully tomorrow he’ll show it on the track from a good draw.
He really is quite the enigma isn’t he, so headstrong and so much speed considering the pedigree and that was illustrated with the response to the whip Steeplechasing was talking about. Where does Mr Gosden go with him now? Stick at the mile or aim for the Foret or drop back to 6F? You can see the case for the Breeders Cup mile. I still wouldn’t be making excuses up for Ascot, he’s had a similar sized gap from his run in Ireland before Ascot to his gap between Deauville and today, perhaps the stiffer track did find him out. It’s humble pie time I was terribly harsh on Circus Maxmimus as well before today but he’s shown a lot of tenacity and made a good fist of it, probably needs a stiffer test at the mile but he’s justified his rating from Ascot. He reminds me a bit of Lancaster Bomber in that he’s not one of O’Brien’s most gifted horses and won’t go down in history but he’s a trier and you can’t fault a trier. Real head-scratcher for Phoenix Of Spain just never really kicked on from the front and wasn’t like he was staying on once headed either.
I think in terms of the 3 year olds there is a very solid but ultimately not up to winning a Group 1 horse in Skardu who links both Guineas and the St James Palace, in my opinion running to a similar standard in all three. He’s been beaten 4.25L by Magna Grecia where there was a generally accepted pace/track bias to which he was against but equally widely accepted Magna Grecia would have won the race regardless. He’s been beaten 3.75L by Phoenix Of Spain in Ireland again possibly where the margin of victory is influenced by a pace bias at the track but again I must stress the margin of victory for POS is such that he surely wins the race regardless. Within that same race Too Darn Hot is beaten 3L thus he finishes 0.75L in front of Skardu. At Ascot Skardu is beaten only 1.5L by Circus Maximus and he finishes 0.5L behind Too Darn Hot.
Even if you reduce POS’ winning margin in Ireland by half he’s still won by further than Circus Maximus did against Skardu and Too Darn Hot at Ascot. To me POS was travelling as well as anything to the 2F marker at Ascot and he just didn’t pick up. Charlie Hills has mentioned about him being sore afterwards and I will always forgive a horse one bad run if it was clearly too bad to be true, particularly where the market has completely over-reacted in his price. He was 5/2 at Ascot against Too Darn Hot’s 2/1F and now he’s double the price of Circus Maximus and bigger to Too Darn Hot. It’s not as if he’s run to that level in Ireland out of the blue, he was every bit as good a 2 year old as Circus Maximus and ran well behind Too Darn Hot who I do not think is performing to that same level. I don’t think there were any excuses for Too Darn Hot at Ascot even if there were at other stages this season, hHe was keen but he was in a good position throughout compared to King Of Comedy and unlike POS he saw his race out fine in finishing 3rd, he either didn’t stay or he didn’t have the heart to battle toe-to-toe with Circus Maximus. I’m not sure which but it doesn’t inspire confidence in me either way. I can’t have him back over a mile in similar circumstances – granted it’s an easier mile but it’s a small field, there might not be much pace on and I can see him yanking Frankie’s arms off again all the way round. If you are Ryan Moore you’re thinking same again with the pace.
I’m prepared to swallow humble pie tomorrow and I half expect to the way Gosden and Dettori keep mopping up these big races up but you have to ignore trainer and jockey form to some extent because it can cloud your honest assessment of a horse racing for them. I’d suggest the market are very divided on him as well, you have to think he’d be odds on, particularly given said connections form and bookies being scared of them, if the backers (and to some extent layers) truly believed he was back to his best and he’ll replicate somewhere near that tomorrow under these conditions.
Edit: sorry to waffle Phoenix Of Spain is my selection at the prices
I was staggered how badly so many of the Group races in particular have cut up this week it really doesn’t reflect well on the meeting imo.