- This topic has 156 replies, 21 voices, and was last updated 6 years, 9 months ago by
.
- Posts
Do you think TDH doesn’t stay a true run mile and/or a stiff mile, Ginge..??
Given the sectionals TDH has put up so far, I have very little doubt TDH will stay a truly run mile on a sound surface around the easy mile of Goodwood, Nathan. Slightly more doubt if it were a truly run race on a stamina sapping very soft surface…
…And – although imo he’ll still be more likely to stay than not stay a stiff Ascot mile on softer ground – there is certainly a much bigger risk of not staying. Wonder whether part of the reason in the Goodwood target is to give him a British Group 1 victory at a mile as a three year old. Wouldn’t surprise me if he then has his sights set on the 7f Foret and Breeders Cup; possibly even Haydock Sprint Cup and Champion Sprint depending on what happens next week.
Where as although King Of Comedy will need to prove effectiveness on a soft surface, he will be suited by a test of stamina of the stiff Ascot mile.
That said, what happens in the Sussex could yet go a long way in dispelling future mile stamina doubts – even at Ascot.
Value Is EverythingCM got the perfect pace and ride in the SJP, too slow and TDH would’ve won in a sprint, too fast and King of Comedy would’ve won from the back, it’s easy to see TDH turning the tables.
They went slow in the SJP. Par is 99% FS and the first 5 home’s FS was 106% on average.
I agree that Goodwood will suit TBH better than the stiff Ascot, but i stil think he dogged Ascot rather than running out of stamina.
They went slow in the SJP. Par is 99% FS and the first 5 home’s FS was 106% on average.
Am confused.
What are you comparing this year’s race with, Kev?
Can you please explain those figures in more detail.Value Is EverythingThe moment Gosden knew
The Moment Gosden decided which of his was going to run in the Sussex pic.twitter.com/rpPrPCkOHT
— Nathan Hughes ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (@nathanhughes777) July 27, 2019
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Comparing the course & distance par finishing speed with what the FS was in the SJP this year, Ginge.
Coming down on Phoenix Of Spain for this, but i want to see how the ground is and how much rain is about before having a go.
But “par” presumably means you are comparing the 2019 SJP time with times put up on much firmer, faster ground.
Once comparing the 2019 SJP with those put up on similar ground it’s evident the race was truly run; with pretty much equal fractions.
Value Is EverythingNo par is the percentage for the CD on that going – i’m using Simon Rowlands’ figures.
Ah, I see what you mean now, Kev.
Have now read this piece:
https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/sectional-spotlight/24-June-2019tbh Hadn’t realised the pace slowed so much mid-race, but even so the Timeform Timefigure was only 4 lbs short of the Performance Rating… Compared to say 11 lbs of both Coronation Stakes and Hardwicke. I suppose you can get degrees of slow, but although it was not even throughout, I personally wouldn’t call it “slow”. That said, Circus Maximus was given a good ride (positional advantage) and both TDH and particularly King Of Comedy should really have beaten him.
Value Is EverythingPut up lord glitters in my tipping thread yesterday at 9/1
Just don’t rate the 3 year old milers at all, don’t think they offer any value at their current prices, just thought that lord glitter’s always runs his race and is by far the most reliable of the older horses and 9s was a bit of value
Has been a bit of blue about for him on oddschecker today
I’ve stuck with my earlier picks, no Romanised but Lord Glitters at 9/1 for me as well but EW as I’m also on Too Darn Hot at 5/2 and tomorrow is the day we see TDH show us really what he can do as a 3 year old!
Also have done the forecast.
Charlie Hills was in brilliant form when Phoenix Of Spain won the Irish Guineas. Was in poor form when POS disappointed in the SJP. Now not at the same level as the Guineas but imo quite a bit better than at Royal Ascot. Are reasons why Too Darn Hot disappointed in Ireland and I expect him to reverse placings, but 13/2 imo deserves the main bet. Have also taken 45/1 I Can Fly. Possibly an Ascot specialist and a bit inconsistent, but is a hold up horse and if market principles go too fast could pick up the pieces (needs a strongly run race to come off). Lord Glitters is a similar hold up sort, but don’t think there’s as much between her and Lord Glitters at their bests than betting suggests. Indeed, neck second to Roaring Lion still reads better than a neck defeat of Beat The Bank. Circus Maximus had the run of the race at Ascot, not sure to get it this time, headgear may not work as well and unlikely to be suited by this sharper mile. Have saved on Too Darn Hot @ 5/4.
Value Is EverythingWhat puts me off POS is that isn’t it now a widely accepted theory that there’s a massive front running bias at the Curragh this season?
I suggest you all lump on I can fly
As she is a cliff horse of mine and iv finally deserted her so am fully expecting her to swoop late and chin my selection on the line
I think in terms of the 3 year olds there is a very solid but ultimately not up to winning a Group 1 horse in Skardu who links both Guineas and the St James Palace, in my opinion running to a similar standard in all three. He’s been beaten 4.25L by Magna Grecia where there was a generally accepted pace/track bias to which he was against but equally widely accepted Magna Grecia would have won the race regardless. He’s been beaten 3.75L by Phoenix Of Spain in Ireland again possibly where the margin of victory is influenced by a pace bias at the track but again I must stress the margin of victory for POS is such that he surely wins the race regardless. Within that same race Too Darn Hot is beaten 3L thus he finishes 0.75L in front of Skardu. At Ascot Skardu is beaten only 1.5L by Circus Maximus and he finishes 0.5L behind Too Darn Hot.
Even if you reduce POS’ winning margin in Ireland by half he’s still won by further than Circus Maximus did against Skardu and Too Darn Hot at Ascot. To me POS was travelling as well as anything to the 2F marker at Ascot and he just didn’t pick up. Charlie Hills has mentioned about him being sore afterwards and I will always forgive a horse one bad run if it was clearly too bad to be true, particularly where the market has completely over-reacted in his price. He was 5/2 at Ascot against Too Darn Hot’s 2/1F and now he’s double the price of Circus Maximus and bigger to Too Darn Hot. It’s not as if he’s run to that level in Ireland out of the blue, he was every bit as good a 2 year old as Circus Maximus and ran well behind Too Darn Hot who I do not think is performing to that same level. I don’t think there were any excuses for Too Darn Hot at Ascot even if there were at other stages this season, hHe was keen but he was in a good position throughout compared to King Of Comedy and unlike POS he saw his race out fine in finishing 3rd, he either didn’t stay or he didn’t have the heart to battle toe-to-toe with Circus Maximus. I’m not sure which but it doesn’t inspire confidence in me either way. I can’t have him back over a mile in similar circumstances – granted it’s an easier mile but it’s a small field, there might not be much pace on and I can see him yanking Frankie’s arms off again all the way round. If you are Ryan Moore you’re thinking same again with the pace.
I’m prepared to swallow humble pie tomorrow and I half expect to the way Gosden and Dettori keep mopping up these big races up but you have to ignore trainer and jockey form to some extent because it can cloud your honest assessment of a horse racing for them. I’d suggest the market are very divided on him as well, you have to think he’d be odds on, particularly given said connections form and bookies being scared of them, if the backers (and to some extent layers) truly believed he was back to his best and he’ll replicate somewhere near that tomorrow under these conditions.
Edit: sorry to waffle Phoenix Of Spain is my selection at the prices
I think anyone backing TDH, me included is doing so on the basis he’s finally come to himself as a 3yr old and we did not see the best of him at Ascot and we certainly didn’t see the best of him in Ireland. I wouldn’t be backing him at his current odds but 5/2 antipost was worth lapping up.
POS needs fast ground now as well it seems, confirmed by Charlie Hills, well at least he said “I think he needs fast ground”
POS deserves another chance I guess but I suspect he’s just as avaerge as the rest of the 3 year olds. It is possible TDH is still a special horse. The others I’d be disappointed if Lord Glitters didn’t beat them. That Queen Anne form is rock solid, people underestimated it at the time and they’re still doing it (although not anymore based on Oddschecker earlier!) and whilst he maybe an Ascot specialist he was placed in this last year and was arguably a bit unlucky.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.