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As you say Frenchy, he ran well here last year, and i know you like your RPRs and bar this year, it’s very close to his best RPR of his life. Fair to say i don’t see how he’s being marked as just an Ascot specialist by a lot, mainly the RP, he’s run at Goodwood once in his life, there’s every chance he’s just as good here!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Gosden seems ultra confident over TDH
He’s blaming the early setback and poor management for the defeats but seems to think he’s right bang back on track
I’ve a bit on already at 6/4 and in doubles with Stradivarius and have lumped a fair bit on again this morning
I’ll be up early cleaning windows tomorrow if it goes t!ts up..
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This thing about Lord Glitters/Queen Anne form being better than the three year olds is imo flawed. Laurens and Mustashry obviously below form. The 6 year old Lord Glitters beat the 5 year old Beat The Bank a neck. That pair have finished within a length of each other at least three times, including at Group 2 level. Beat The Bank never won a Group 1 in several attempts and that was Lord Glitters first Group 1 victory in seven. At their ages it is/was very unlikely they’ve both improved by the same amount, let alone significantly. Trainer is in excellent form and Lord Glitters has some great attributes, so am not ruling him out; you may or may not believe the price is worth taking a chance can win this. If they go too fast – favouring those held up – Lord Glitters is the one most likely to take advantage. But on ability, the last two Queen Annes have been pretty much proven sub-standard Group 1 races.
Value Is EverythingThe st James palace was pretty sub standard too
And all of the 3yo mile races being won by different horses suggests they are all much of a muchness
So while the 3yos have every chance dont see why they took up such a huge chunk of the market
Now that lord glitters has shortened from the 10/1 that was available the market looks more realistic
Though I’m not as forgiving as some and couldn’t have too darn hot at all at the prices
especially with the way space traveller ran yesterday not exactly franking space blues level of form, that group 1 too darn hot won was a group 3 in disguise
Good luck everyone, hopefully it’s a good race
This thing about Lord Glitters/Queen Anne form being better than the three year olds is imo flawed.
It is rock solid form though GT. The 3rd nearly won the Falmouth next time out and the 4th won a Grp2 in Ireland ,with the 2nd in that race 2nd yesterday in the Lennox. It is rock solid form, whether it’s better than the 3year old form, well that’s the question, but people were making the comment after the Queen Anne, that if you ran that race 10 times, you’d get 10 different results and that’s not true at all.
Both the last 2 Queens Anne’s have probably been more like high class Group2 races but then so have the 3year old Group1s. Magna Grecia & Circus Maximus were the worst winners for 10 years + in the Guineas and SJP and Phoenix of Spain’s win in the Irish Guineas was below par.
I guess, as I said previously, Phoenix of Spain deserves a second chance in this field and to prove he wasn’t right at Ascot, so am going to do a little saver on him, but as Jack pointed out, Lord Glitters run last year on RPR was almost a career best and he didn’t get a) a clear run or b) a fast early pace. Had he got both, he would’ve put up a career best, so it was nothing about the track and being away from Ascot.
So I can see him hitting his 121 last race RPR figure if the race works out for him which could be enough if Too Darn Hot confirms that he’s not that good! The question is will he get a fast early pace and I’m not sure on that. Worth 9/1 but he’s a bit short now Lord Glitters.
What’s yours view on how the race will pan out? I can see, Accidental Agent, I Can Fly & Lord Glitters taken to the back, Ryan will try and get across on Circus Maximus and try and dictate pace like he did in the SJP, Zabeel Prince’s last 4 runs at a mile, he raced either prominent or made all, but he’s in stall 8. Happy Power raced prominent at his only run at 8F and then you have POS and TDH, who will want to get near the lead, but probably not take it? It’s windy again at Goodwood, so I don’t think I can see someone really driving to get the front actually, can you? Which could mean Ryan gets where he wants to dictate pace again? Could be muddling?
that group 1 too darn hot won was a group 3 in disguise
What do you think the RPR figure should’ve been for that then as he was given 125 which is clear ahead of the best on offer today.
I think you’ve summed the pace up pretty well, Frenchy. For me, POS imo is just as likely to lead (is nearer the rail than CM). Yes, expect Zabeel Prince to be more handy than recently. Frankie won’t want to be too far away (won’t want Ryan dictating) Too Darn Hot either tracking pace or mid-div. Happy Power mid-div. I Can Fly can be slowly away and Accidental Agent will be just hoping to get away; likely to be last out the gate. Lord Glitters also likes to be out the back, so those three will be fighting for last place. You make an excellent point about the wind. Although isn’t as strong as yesterday, could be more in their faces; might favour those getting cover in a truly run race; but that also means it’s less likely to be truly run… But then there’s a question whether Circus Maximus has enough pace in a slowly run affair. Therefore I’d say most likely is fast, slow, fast. Innitially strong until the turn, then – once hitting the headwind – slowing before quickening up again.
Value Is EverythingCircus Maximus for me too Raymo
This is the time of year that AOB horses run their best and I have him as my Wildcard in Gingers 10 to Follow having been silly enough to sub out Too Darn Hot who took that as his cue to return to winning ways. 
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Dont really think much in terms of RPRs frenchy
But I cant see how beating a horse that got beaten by space traveller who yesterday showed he is nothing special equates to group 1 form
For me too darn hot still has a massive point to prove back against better horses over a mile and evs is a ludicrous price
When you consider stradivarius was 4/5 yesterday evs on too darn hot is a terrible price
He may well win and win impressively but no way I’m taking evs to find out
Therefore I’d say most likely is fast, slow, fast. Initially strong until the turn, then – once hitting the headwind – slowing before quickening up again.
Which is perfect for Too Darn Hot then as he didn’t look that settled early on in the SJP.
Accidental Agent will be just hoping to get away
haha!!
I don’t disagree FF. I wouldn’t be backing him at evens. If he doesn’t win today, he’s mugged me 3 times (4 if I count getting injured before the Eng 2000, as I’d backed him anti post). Of course I didn’t back him last time out in France!
So if he doesn’t win today, I shall definitely be banging my head against the wall later!especially with the way space traveller ran yesterday not exactly franking space blues level of form, that group 1 too darn hot won was a group 3 in disguise
Space Traveller was dropped out off a very strong pace on a stiff course at Ascot’s straight course, FF. So as well as having positional advantage had a stamina test at 7f. Highly unlikely to be as effective over Goodwood’s round, very easy 7f. Given the different conditions ran about as well as could be expected in the Lennox.
I agree the overall quality of the Jean Prat was nothing special. Without Too Darn Hot, Space Blues would’ve been a poor Group 1 winner. However, Too Darn Hot won by 3 lengths, at 7f that’s around 9 lbs even without him winning easily – ie probability of having a pound or two more in hand than winning distances suggest… And those 9, 10 or 11 lbs make Too Darn Hot’s performance of real Group 1 standard.
Value Is EverythingIt is rock solid form though GT. The 3rd nearly won the Falmouth next time out and the 4th won a Grp2 in Ireland ,with the 2nd in that race 2nd yesterday in the Lennox. It is rock solid form,
Both the last 2 Queens Anne’s have probably been more like high class Group2 races
Rock solidly high class Group 2. Spot on, Frenchy.
Circus Maximus does look a little flattered to me, got the run of the race at Ascot. King Of Comedy and Too Darn Hot better horses and POS didn’t show his form either. So CM possibly the fourth best horse in the field won the SJP. Phoenix Of Spain’s form (ignoring Too Darn Hot as he was below form) – those he beat and by how far – as it looks right now isn’t much better than Lord Glitters… Although the form is more difficult to get a handle on (less rock solid) – might be rated a pound or two less or a pund or two more… Being a three year old with less miles on the clock is more likely to improve on that form than the rock solidly high class Group 2 six year old.
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So if he doesn’t win today, I shall definitely be banging my head against the wall later!- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.