Sprint Cup 2019

I’m a big big AOB fan for one, but to be fair, he says most of his horses show a lot of speed!

Yeah he said that about Southern France earlier this year

The question is what is running to form as far as Dream Of Dreams goes? He looked unlucky at Royal Ascot but my interpretation is that he’s always been a strong traveller, often held up, he got the perfect set-up from the early fractions Kachy set in the Diamond Jubilee and the stiff finish of Ascot baring in mind he’s a 7F winner with placed form in two group races over 7F last season. The scenario clearly did not suit many of the other fancied runners who have performed well below their best. Some will believe he’s a Stoute late improver etc.. who was probably coming in off the back of a career best at Windsor – but do remember that was a Listed contest he won at Windsor. Reality is his overall record does not mirror that of a horse rated 119. 17 group/Listed races to date with 2 Listed wins to show and 13 of those 17 runs were over 6F.

His best RPR before Ascot was 115 and prior to that a string of 113’s from last season. Even if I felt he could replicate his Royal Ascot run again at some stage I don’t think it’ll be here. If the going gets testing we’ll be looking at a much smaller field than the 17 who lined up in the Diamond Jubilee (14 at the moment entered her but half are between Aidan O’Brien and Kevin Ryan) and there’s not the same explosive pace angle Kachy brought to that race, presuming Ten Sovereigns finds this too soon after York you’ve got Forever In Dreams and Major Jumbo as plausible pace angles. On the subject of the going if it gets that bad Haydock soft tends to be a different proposition to soft in most other parts of the country

Frenchy it seems that since fairyland already won a group 1 and group 2 last year that obrein isnt too bothered whether she wins again or not

She was a non stayer in the guineas so very strange decision to run her at the curragh too

And was obviously outpaced in the king stand on soft ground so even stranger to run her in the nunthorpe on very firm ground

Her one run over the right trip she came a very good third in the july cup considering she was on the wrong side of the track

Head scratching campaign and cant back her after the nunthorpe disaster so I’m on khaadem and will be hoping ten sovereigns doesnt repeat his july cup run

Khaadem’s improved since Royal Ascot though Chivers and posted an RPR of 86 in that Ascot run, it was clearly not his running so it’s pretty irrelevant that HY finished ahead of him. Question is whether HY will improve to hit an RPR of around 121 to win this, but Khaadem’s Goodwood run(RPR 119) entitles him to be much shorter in the betting than HY(best RPR 114).

Ten Sovereigns is drifting out on betfair this morning. Not running?

Haydock is such a weird track, it didn’t even rain that much yesterday. Looks very likely to be soft then on Saturday, I can see Khaadem drifting a bit and Dream of Dreams coming into second fav with TS out.

Interesting race this!!
My first comment is I actually have a feeling for two AOB horses. Fairyland 16/1 and So Perfect 25/1 but then I looked at AOB’s record at Haydock and he has NO winners there in the last five years from about ten runners. Not exactly confidence inspiring.

I think the race may cut up and we may be lucky to have eight runners due to the ground.

Even though AOB has a bad record here at the prices I had to back those two. So Perfect has won with give in the ground and will be staying on. Fairyland has no form with give on the ground but who knows?

Advertise will cope with the ground.
Ten Sovereigns won’t turn up methinks (either metaphorically or literally)
Khaadem IMO isn’t good enough to win this group one.
Dream Of Dreams is flattered by the Blue Point run.
Brando not quite good enough.
Hello Youmzain could run well but have missed the big prices
The Tin Man has probably had his day but did win this with give in the ground
Invincible Army needs to improve half a stone which is unlikely.

BUT I could be completely wrong!! LOL

MISTER JUMBO EW 40/1

I think this has got a really big chance having had a chance to look at the race properly.

Well worth a pop at naughty forty especially as Im expecting the race to cut up in a big way. This is a very rare antepost bet for me so I hope he turns up:yes:

Trainer Kevin Ryan is in very good form coming into this race.
The ground will either be soft or gd/sft or somewhere in between. Major Jumbos 5 turf wins came on either soft or gd/sft so conditions should be ideal.
He comes into the race as a sprinter in form having ran a lifetime best last time when easily winning a listed race.
This horse is a slow burner who has been steadily improving every single season. He remains on an upward curve and there is no reason why he cant improve again.
He has won 7 of his 30 career races and is incredibly consistent. Since the age of 3 he has won 6 times and been placed 14 times from 24 runs so was only unplaced in 4 of his 24 runs.
Major Jumbo will race prominently and Haydock favours prominent runners.

The above certainly gives Major Jumbo claims in this race though he is one of the lowest rated horses in the field which will cause the vast majority to completely write off his chance.

Now prepare for some crazy voodoo level similarties between the 2009 winner and Major Jumbo.

In 2009 REGAL PARADE won the Sprint Cup
In 2019 MAJOR JUMBO wins(?)the Sprint Cup

REGAL PARADE came into the race having had 28 races with an official rating of just 109
MAJOR JUMBO comes into the race havinh had 30 races with an official rating of just 108

In the season that REGAL PARADE won the race he was 2nd and 3rd in 2 runs in group 2’s. He was 9th in a group 1. He won a listed race at Chester.
MAJOR JUMBO comes into the race having this season been 2nd and 3rd in 2 runs in group 2’s. He was 9th in a group 1. He won a listed race at Chester.

REGAL PARADE was OR 87 at theend of his 3yo season
MAJOR JUMBO was OR 89 at the end of his 3yo season
REGAL PARADE was rated 97 at the end of his 4yo season
MAJOR JUMBO was rated 102 at the end of his 4yo season
REGAL PARADE came into the Sprint Cup rated 109
MAJOR JUMBO comes into the race rated 108

REGAL PARADE came into the race with an AW record of 4 runs that produced 2 wins and 2 unplaced runs.
MAJOR JUMBO comes into the race with am AW record of 4 runs that produced 2 wins and 2 unplaced runs.

REGAL PARADE was born in the 21st century in a year ending with 4, he was born on the 8th of March.
MAJOR JUMBO was born in the 21st century in a year ending with 4, he was born on the 8th of March.

REGAL PARADES trainer Dandy Nicholls started off as a jockey who became a trainer in the 90’s and was known as ‘The Sprint King’.
MAJOR JUMBOS trainer Kevin Ryan started off as a jockey who became a trainer in the 90’s and has been referred to as ‘The Sprint king’.

Regal Parade was trained at the Dandy Nicholls stables in the village of Sessay in Thirsk, North Yorkshire.
Major Jumbo is trained at Kevin Ryans stables in the village of hambleton in Thirsk, North Yorkshire.
The stables are a stones throw away from each other.

Adrian Nicholls rode his first ever group 1 winner on Regal Parade in the haydock sprint.
Assuming Kevin Stott rides (he rode for the listed win last time) and wins this race then it will be his first ever group 1 winner.

Alcohol is very popular at Haydock racecourse. Incredibly an alcoholic drink can be found in the names of both horses – LAGER (Regal Parade) and RUM (Major Jumbo). Even more bizzarely a style of music that originates from african slaves can be found in each horse ie RUMBA and RAP.
Incidentally were Major Jumbo to win the 2019 sprint cup the team will be drinking lager and rum and rapping to the rumba rhythm well into the early hours of Sunday morning.

The similarities between these two horses are unbelievable.

Write off the 40/1 rag at your peril

MAJOR JUMBO is about to hit the big time. It appears to be written in the stars.

https://youtu.be/qqxYYCrqml8 (2009 sprint cup)

https://youtu.be/f7QzxYAjgNc (Spooky-Dusty Springfield)

Regal Parade came from last to first to win and was by a Group 1 winning Pivotal whereas Major Jumbo is by Zebedee and by the looks of that post he’s not the only one at the magic roundabout this afternoon!

Ok Frenchy having read through the post I can see that you think if a horses sire didnt win a group 1 race then the offspring wont win a group 1?

This logic is completely flawed, pedigree is only ever a guide and never an unmovable goalpost.

The best horse in the race (assuming Ten Soverigns isnt turning up) is called Advertise. His father was called showcasing. Showcasing didnt win a group 1 race and therefor using your logic Advertise could not possibly win at group 1 level yet his form tells me that Advertise has in fact already won The Phoenix Stakes group 1, The commonwealth cup group 1 and The Prix Maurice De Gheest group 1.

So how did this horse win 3 group 1s in 3 different countries against 3 different age ranges (2yo only, 3yo only and all age open)?

So to suggest that Major Jumbo couldnkt win a group 1 because his father Zebedee didnt win a group 1 is utterley ridiculous. Also zebedee never ran in a group 1 he was retired prematurely aged 2 and never got his chance. Though had he have ran in a group 1 and won by 10 lengths or ran in a group 1 and came last this ultimately wouldnt make Major Jumbo run any faster or slower on saturday.