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Ginger please explain why you continue to say that Dream of Dreams didnt run to form? (and anyone else who agrees).
Surely if a horse has been beaten in 16 group races and he gets unplaced in a group 1 then he is prettybmuch running to form.
His only piece of form in a group race that actually looks decent is clearly false form;
Blue Point won a group 1 just days earlier. It was an incredible feat to land the royal ascot group 1 double just days apart. Unsurprisingly he was stopping at the end which made the closers appear better.
Look at the 3rd in that race KACHY at 33/1.
An all weather specialist (5 from 6 on aw). His 2 best ever wins were at lingfield polytrack at listed level.
Never won at group level as a 3yo + being unplaced in 12 of those 13 group races. This isnt a group horse either.The 4th in that race was 50/1 SPEAK IN COLOURS. A curragh specialist who was unplaced in 7 grouo races away from the curragh.
He was 1st and 2nd in a curragh group race though even when he won he only beat the old boy 10yo Gordon Lord Byron.The 5th horse LE BRIVIDO did win a group 3 over 7f as a 3yo in a 3yo only race. He was unplaced in 6 of his 7 runs at group level since. The only place coming over 7f. Clearly not a group 1 horse or even a group horse at 6f.
6th horse THE TIN MAN had been running so badly most assumed he was gone. Did return to form at his beloved Haydock for the sprint cup but his run in this race was well below his best.
Forget about the tired winner Blue Point and its listed/bad group 3 form at best.How many more chances does this horse need til you realise he just isnt a group 1 horse.
Are you prepared to give him another 4 chances and make it 20 group runs and 20 defeats before you say “hold on a minute maybe this horse who has been beaten 20 times at group level, isnt a group horse”.The team eagerly await when the forum has that lightbulb moment.
If its ok for everybody to pretend that Dream Of Dreams is just unlucky and is actually a group 1 machine then I am claiming that ELEGANT ESCAPE is the rightful GOLD CUP WINNER 2019. I refuse to acknowledge or recognise AL BOUM PHOTO as the champ becaude EE was clearly unlucky
I find criticism of the jockey change a strange one Potato, because where it REALLY MATTERS (in Group 1 races)… Under Stott, Hello Youmzain was slower away in the Commonwealth and – as I said – without being slower away would’ve given Advertise a harder time of it at the finish… And yet (where it mattered) under Doyle on Saturday Hello Youmzain got a quicker break (tick), got (for this horse) an ideal position racing prominently/leading (tick) and WON the race (treble stars). Going some way to justify the change. Just because a jockey is successful at lesser levels (like Stott has) doesn’t mean he/she is as consistent at Group 1 level where there’s much more PRESSURE involved. Not only is prize money on the day of race more valuable, but is also worth many millions in stud value! We’d all have loved Stott to have been in the saddle, but when we’re talking about difference between winning and losing being many millions of pounds, we’re not involved. Therefore can’t blame connections. Nobody can say whether Stott would’ve won the Sprint Cup or not… But changing jockeys (putting a “better” jockey up) is all about consistency, the more consistent a jockey is the more chance a horse has of winning… And Doyle WON!
Personally, doubt whether Ryan had much say in the matter either, suspect it was the owners who made the (imo completely understandable) decision. Suspect trainer and (in many ways) owner would’ve rather Stott been in the saddle, but having Doyle increased the horse’s chance and they WON!
Value Is EverythingIf you look at what I’ve said, Potato. I’ve already concluded both Blue Point and Kachy were below their bests in winning and third in the Jubilee. Yes, Kachy is at his best on the all-weather (and/or turning turf track like Chester). However, allowance must be taken for the standard of race and performance. 2 1/2 lengths behind Blue Point and Dream Of Dreams may be a little behind Kachy’s best all weather performances, but it’s not a massive amount behind…
On turf Katchy had been beaten just a head and short head by Battaash (who gave 5 lbs) in the 2018 Temple. ie On that run comes out just 6 lbs inferior to the rating Battaash put up in that race. Or ignoring Battaash a short head (rated the same as) Washington DC.
At that same course in 2017 in a Conditions race he was a short head second to Magical Memory at levels, the pair a long way clear of the rest. ie On that form Kachy comes out rated the same as Magical Memory. (Magical Memory had been 2 1/2 lengths second to proven Group 1 horse Tasleet in a Group 2 previously and Magical Memory (remembering Kachy and MM can be rated similarly on their turf form) also won a Group 3 by 1 1/4 lengths on his very next start).
Kachy had also been beaten only a length by future Champion Sprinter Quiet Reflection in the 2016 Group 1 Commonwealth Cup – over the same course, distance and meeting as this year’s Jubilee. ie On that form (and with QR’s 3 lb sex allowance) comes out rated the same as or at most 1 lb inferior to Champion Sprinter Quiet Reflection (albeit the latter improved afterwards). Again finishing close – 1/2 length – a pound (or two at most) in front of the third Washington DC.
So although it is true Kachy is at his best on the all weather/round turf track – those best turf performances – 2018 Temple, 2017 Bet365 Coditions Stakes, 2016 Commonwealth – can all be rated in the same ball park as Kachy’s turf Jubilee third.
How you rate horses is up to you. But forget judging horses by finishing position, Potato. Instead try judging by distance finished ahead/behind horse X and you may then understand why/how I (and many others) rate horses.
Jubilee 4th placed Speak In Colours was beaten a total of 3 1/4 lengths by Dream Of Dreams. It is imo unfair to reagard Speak In Colours as a “Curragh specialist”. Seemed to finish with a bit left in him at Ascot; imo jockey rode more to get the best placing rather than to win. Possibly a pound or two below his best but not much. ie Worth rating as 3 lengths or 2 3/4 behind Dream Of Dreams rather than 3 1/4. Where as…
Speak In Colours was only beaten 2 1/4 by Sir Dancealot in Group 2 Lennox at Goodwood at level weights.
Only beaten 3 lengths by Shine So Bright and Laurens in the City Of York.
Speak In Colours was 4th at Ascot, Goodwood and York. But tbh am struggling to find any Curragh form Speak In Colours has produced that’s any better than Goodwood and/or York. Winning form or even placed form is not always better than a 4th place in a better quality race/s.
Look at those distances beaten, Potato. It’s true that Dream Of Dreams is not the most consistent – and yes that’s a definite negative! But every horse has negatives and positives. At his best and/or at Ascot – on a line through Speak In Colours – seems to me Dream Of Dreams is worth rating slightly ahead of Sir Dancealot at that horse’s best and currently either on the same mark or 1 lb less than Shine So Bright. Laurens had a 5 lb penalty less 3 lb sex allowance, so Laurens is better than all the above.
Value Is EverythingHow you rate horses is up to you. But forget judging horses by finishing position, Potato. Instead try judging by distance finished ahead/behind horse X and you may then understand why/how I (and many others) rate horses.
Why do you think I want to understand how/why you rate horses?
lol at you talking to me as if you are my teacher on racing matters.
You have your ways (timeforms ways) I have my ways. Its obnoxious that you think I need to learn from you.
Winning form or even placed form is not always better than a 4th place in a better quality race/s.Again you are talking to me like you are my teacher. you think I dont knlw the above. I could race 100 mtrs against 10 year old children amd come 1st. I could race 100mtrs against usain bolt and other top athletes and come last.
Its completely obvious that the race where I came last could be better than the race I came first.You have written a lot of irrelevant things above.
The bottom line is DREAM OF DREAMS 16 group races and 16 group defeats no matter how you try to jazz it up.
With all these formlines you quote you havent looked at ground conditons did it suit all runners you quote, were all the horses fully tuned, were all the horses at there best, was it the right time of year, what were the conditions of the race, what was the trainer form like at the time of each run and many other variables so ultimately these form figures you are quoting is irrelevant and this is why you WRONGLY think Dream Of dreams is a group 1 horse. He isnt its that simple.
Why do you think I want to understand how/why you rate horses?
All I’ve done is to answer your question, Potato. It was YOU who asked me…
Ginger please explain why you continue to say that Dream Of Dreams didn’t run to form?
You keep on asking me questions and then – after I spend hours answering – you accuse me of all sorts.
Of course – as I said – “how you rate horses is up to you”. But if wanting me to “EXPLAIN WHY you (I) continue to say Dream Of Dreams didn’t run to form”… To do just that then I need to “EXPLAIN WHY”.
Yes – as I said – “how you rate horses is up to you”, but if wanting to understand why I rate Dream Of Dreams or any other horse the way I do, (NOT NECESSARILY AGREE WITH ME, JUST UNDERSTAND WHY) then (for future reference) you can do so by looking at how far a horse beats or is beaten by X, rather than position finished… Because I do not want to spend hours explaining why I rate every race to you.
Value Is EverythingAgain, it was YOU Potato who said of Speaking In Colours:
A Curragh specialist who was unplaced in 7 group races away from the Curragh”.The implication is you believe his Curragh form is better than form shown elsewhere.
Therefore in me saying:
“winning form or even placed form is not always better than a 4th place in a better quality race/s”. What I am saying is in finishing 4th at Ascot, 4th at Goodwood and 4th at York all in Group races, they are imo on form (comparing who he finished behind and by how far) no worse than any Curragh victory/performance. ie Just because Speak In Colours wins or places at the Curragh and is unplaced in 7 Group races elsewhere does not mean the Curragh form is better. He is no “Curragh specialist” because he’s capable of showing the same form elsewhere.Value Is EverythingI questioned your comments.
If I wanted to ask somebody a question on racing you wouldnt make my top 10 list of people to ask to be honest and neither would any of your other ids
Can I also point out that you said the following recently after you asked yourself a question in one of your other IDs on your thread recently about Copper Knight and this us what you replid (to yourself):
Copper Knight is a York horse so can excuse him the Goodwood run, Istabraq
The implication is you believe his York form is better than form shown elsewhere.
Yet his last 2 runs at York produced a RPR of 107 and 109 but he has produced an RPR of 111 at Newcastle this season.
Last season he got a RPR of 102 at York but a RPR of 104 at Nottingham.He is no “Curragh specialist” because he’s capable of showing the same form elsewhere.
So what you are attempting to belittle me for saying above you have done and do the exact same thing. Copper Knight is clearly not a York specialist as he is capable of running to the same level or better elsewhere.
You are a walking talking contradiction who thinks they are special. Clearly not.Pot, kettle black. Case closed. Thanks for coming
Pro gambler who talks to himself on internet forums in different ids and contradicts left right and centre.
I saw a race the other night at Kempton Ginger
Where a horse took a hell of a bump in the final furlong and was literally on the floor, picked himself up, rallied and won I believe or lost in a photo, I can’t remember but that certainly puts to shame Dream of Dreams if his little nudge was to blame for him running like thatGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Think it was more than a “little nudge” and yes Nathan – as I said – bumps affect different horses differently. Inspires some to try harder/fight back. Some lose concentration completely and therefore lose ground. DOD was some way behind for some reason. But I agree it probably doesn’t entirely explain the whole performance. imo May well be a mixture of things contributing to a poor run (including the bump)As I said earlier – possibly another Ascot horse and that may be the biggest factor. Price I’d be willing to take in all DOD’s future races would now be a lot shorter at Ascot than it would be anywhere else. However, there is a small (or a little bigger than small) temperamental question mark as you rightly imply.
Value Is EverythingThat answer/comment to Istabraq’s question was all about whether Copper Knight would be likely to return to form following a poor run at Goodwood. By saying he’s “a York horse” it implies there’s a reason for the poor Goodwood run AND (the important thing) he was returning to York where he has a good record. ie Could be expected to run well despite a poor effort last time.
Copper Knight is imo a York horse… And yes he has a good record at Newcastle – yes he’s a Newcastle horse too – but he was not running at Newcastle.
What would be the point of me mentioning to Istabraq, that Copper Knight also goes well at Newcastle when we were talking about a York race?
I was not trying to “belittle you”, Potato. Just that when you believe Speak In Colours is “a Curragh Specialist” and I believe he is just as effective at Ascot, Goodwood and York… We can’t both be right. So in explaining why I believe I am right must also explain why I think you are wrong. It’s just an opinion mate. Please try not to take anyone disagreeing with your opinion so badly, this is a debating forum.
Value Is EverythingBookies seem split on DOD, as low as 7s for the Champions Sprint, but Bet365 a standout 12s. He’s tempting back at Ascot but Kachy set such a strong pace there, you’d think he’d need the same, so worth waiting for the line up. Last year was a bit of a crawl. Would take a leap of faith for me to back him again, but I haven’t dismissed him completely.
I’m not worried about him being 0-16 in group races personally, he’s been second a few times and in another half yard he’d have won a major Group 1, so can’t just ignore that and look at an 0-16 stat. I’m much more worried about his last 2 runs.
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