August 5, 2019 at 17:48 #1450571darren83Participant
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Question marks over the top 3 in betting in terms of this race.Frankie after sunday in Deauville suggest to Meade that should run him here which suggest that TDH not turn up.TEN SOVEREIGNS i get the feeling the Nunthorpe be next of course can run in both but the owners of that race not won it in ages so this best chance of winning that race at York.Advertise won 3 group ones now Meade was not certain in terms of turning up here after the race.So if all 3 not run here be open race and think BRANDO run a carear best in Deauville even Ryan thinks that was 2nd last year and could add another group one.August 6, 2019 at 00:25 #1450589Venture to CognacModerator
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I could be tempted by that 25’s on Pretty Pollyanna.
Bet her for July Cup, and she’d have been placed but for the slow start.
Not bet her yet, but any indication from trainer that she’s going here, and I’d take a chance.August 6, 2019 at 00:54 #1450590
Fairyland ran a big race in the july cup on the wrong side of the track, the form of which looks strong with advertise winning since
Would be very interested if she was to run here, especially if ten sovereigns was absentAugust 6, 2019 at 11:39 #1450601
Can’t see Ten Sovereigns getting beaten in this if he turns up, especially with Too Darn Hot not running. I backed Pretty Pollyanna in the July Cup and 25/1 would be a cracking EW price for sure, but she seems so big at that price, I wonder if her participation is in question, hence the big price?August 19, 2019 at 13:42 #1451381Venture to CognacModerator
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Had first bet on Saturday, adding Librisa Breeze, by still very interested in Pretty Pollyanna too.
Librisa Breeze 33’s EWSeptember 1, 2019 at 22:22 #1452601TheTinMan87Participant
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I love The Tin Man and my login name is based around him and he’s got a tremendous record in this race but he looked to me in the Hackwood like he may have gone at the game, at least at the highest level. I know he’s flopped a few times down the years as most sprinters do but generally he gets turned over in Group 1 company or on his seasonal reappearance, I couldn’t see any excuses in what looked a desperate renewal of a race he’s won in the past for all Khaadem did come out and win the Stewards Cup, he wasn’t given the best ride in the Hackwood as is interesting here.
The Tin Man also has history against him with only one repeat winner of the race which came in the first two years of it back in 1966 & 67 although it should be noted when I was going back through the records to 2000 only 6 horses actually tried to win the race again with Gordon Lord Byron going closest in 2014 after winning in 2013 in recent-ish times.
Brando looks a better shout given he’s shown the fire does still burn at the highest level with his run in the Maurice De Gheest and the stats for horses trying again and winning does look better on paper with The Tin Man, Gordon Lord Byron, Society Rock, Red Clubs and Pipalong all succeeding where they had previously failed in the race since 2000. That’s a decent stat given that there have been 8x 3 year old winners in that spell who couldn’t have run in the race at a previous stage as the conditions changed to exclude 2 year olds in 1994. To be honest even though I don’t think he’s up to this level the biggest priced older horse that catches the eye who also fits the pattern would be Speak In Colours who was down the field here last year but ran very well in the Diamond Jubilee and then has been in a few races that haven’t seen him to best effect over 7F since. He’s run okay still and has always struck me as one who could outrun his price and go very close in one of these.
On balance I suspect the 3 year olds have this again, they won four on the spin prior to last year where the Commonwealth Cup looked a dodgy renewal and since its inception Muhaarar skipped this but Quiet Reflection won both, Harry Angel took the crown after being 2nd behind Caravaggio who didn’t come here. Harry Angel and Quiet Reflection also had winning the Sandy Lane over course and distance in common and I really like Hello Youmzain’s progress if he comes here, especially with that course and distance form in the book. He does have work to do to overturn the form with Advertise but I think that is reflected in the price differential and with natural improvement which he’s entitled to, he could bridge the gap having only run 6 times to Advertise’s 9. If I like him I’d have to like the filly Forever In Dreams as well at an even bigger price, she’ll be getting both a 3 year old and fillies allowance and is another course and distance winner. 3 year olds dominated the July Cup and if you take Battaash out of the Nunthorpe you’ve still 3 year olds hitting the frame in Soldiers Call and So Perfect.
No bets for now but Hello Youmzain is the main fancy until we get a clearer picture of likely runners and weather.September 2, 2019 at 19:35 #1452728
I’d be all over fairyland for this had she not run in the nunthorpe
But just cant back her after that, must be highly likely both her and ten sovereigns wont be anywhere near 100% after struggling so much at york
Charlie hills spoke glowingly about khaadem in the racing post and it seems he is flying at home
Hopefully he can bring that to the track on Saturday
Advertise sets a good standard and always runs his race, but I hope khaadem can show his true potential which he didnt manage in the commonwealth cupSeptember 2, 2019 at 21:24 #1452730potatoBlocked
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Ten Soverigns to win doing backflips en route to the breeders cup sprint in November.September 3, 2019 at 08:58 #1452748LostSoldier3Blocked
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Worth noting that this race is no longer sponsored by 32Red, who seem to have welched on their support.September 3, 2019 at 10:59 #1452756
After saying I can’t see Ten Sovereigns being beaten earlier on this thread, I now think that was a tad rash! His run in the Nunthorpe was terrible really. Personally I think he isn’t a 5F horse. He was so strong at the finish in the July Cup that he didn’t scream like he could drop back to 5F at all, plus York is a funny track and has a habit of throwing up strange results. So I can forgive him for that run, but there is another issue in that I think he needs fast ground. Ryan Moore said after the July Cup “He liked being back on faster ground”. Haydock always seems to be on the slow side of good for this race usually. Not a lot of rain about this week it seems, but not sure it will get to the fast side of good, so he is plenty short enough in the betting for me.
Advertise is a very solid performer, but he is still yet to put up an RPR figure better than 119. I think there is a question to be asked now about him over whether a fast 6F is his ideal trip. His 3 best RPR runs, were over 7F, Ascot stiff 6F and Prix M De G, 6.5F. Even MM was considering the Prix De La Foret over 7F instead of this at one point apparently, so as with TS he is plenty short enough in the betting with that doubt in mind.
Looking at the other 3 year olds, it was a big improvement and big run from Khaadem last time out, with a trainer who knows sprinters for sure and is quite encouraging with his comments since Goodwood, saying “”He’s all set for Haydock and I was really pleased with the way he worked yesterday; it was probably the best I’ve seen him go,” Based on that I took the 6/1 available last week as if there is one big improver in the field, it is going to be him.
The others don’t look good enough to me. Hello Youmzain needs a big jump up on what he has achieved so far and he is by Kodiac who never won more than a Handicap. Kodiac as a sire has a solid but not spectacular record, so it takes a leap of faith to suggest Hello Youmzain can step up to win this. The same can be said about Fairyland, also by Kodiac. The other 3 AOB runners very likely have too much to improve by to win this based on their form so far.
So onto the 4yr + horses, where decent Group 1 form is usually preferred based on trends…
Major Jumbo and Waldpfad fall short on that basis. So too does Invincible Army. He has very strong form below Group 1, but his form at the top level is 970 with RPR figures of 102, 106, 92. That strongly suggests that he is not a Group 1 horse. It’s hard to draw a line through him though, being by Invincible Spirit, who is a previous Sprint Cup winner, but I suspect he won’t be good enough.
Of the 7year olds, I really like The Tin Man as a horse, but agree with earlier posts, good recent form is usually needed here and he has run pretty poorly really every time since he won this last year, so major question marks with his age that he is well past his peak now. Brando for me, is one of those horses that just hangs around group 1s for ages without doing that much. 7 years old now and never recorded an RPR figure in the 120s +. Placed loads of times and one Group1 win, you couldn’t be surprised if he did win, but it would be a very disappointing race if at least one of the 3 year olds for example doesn’t beat him.
Also, only one 7 year old in the last 40 years has won this, and in that renewal in 2010, Markab didn’t have anywhere near the 3year old competition that Brando and The Tin Man will face on Saturday.
So that leaves Dream of Dreams. I was against him in the July Cup, because I thought he was too short in the betting and his run in the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot was exactly that of an Ascot specialist, coming from the back off a strong pace and finishing fast. He ran poorly at Newmarket, but there is market support for him this morning and we shouldn’t ignore that the run at Ascot is some of the very best form on offer here. He is also by Dream Ahead, who has won the Sprint Cup and is also a CD winner, albeit as a 2year old in a novice. If there is a non 3 year old winner, it will be him. There were 12s available this morning, I managed to get 10s, but he’s as short as 8s now.
After big wins on Advertise in the Commonwealth Cup and Ten Sovereigns in the July Cup, I’m going to continue the theme of backing a different winner in these 6F Group 1s.
Khaadem 6/1 (can only get 5 now)
Dream of Dreams 10/1September 3, 2019 at 12:08 #1452762potatoBlocked
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Aidan O’Brien is in no doubt Ten Sovereigns possesses the speed for five furlongs:
“We’ve no doubt about speed, he has loads of it, he shows that in his work and the clock shows that as well,” said O’Brien.
The world record holder for group 1 wins, Europes most powerful trainer the don of racing Aiden O’Brien is abaolutely 100% this horse can win 5f races. Yet on every single racing forum going there are people who swear he isnt fast enough for 5f.
My advice would be to take a reality check and listen to the big boss man. He knows this is a sprinter.5f no problems at all.
Its amazing how many people on forums believe they know better than aiden.
Aiden has stated the horse was lethargic on a baking hot day, went in the stalls very early and had to wait a long time which was something that hadnt happened before. He had an off day but Aiden remains convinced he will prove that run all wrong at Haydock.
Ryan Moore has ridden some of the worlds greatest sprinters and sees no problem whatsoevr with this 5f trip.
But still they wont listen. They all know better than Aiden and Ryan.
Listening to trainers and jockeys comments is generally a bad idea as they all (mostly) lie for fun.
the thing here is though if Aiden didnt really think the horse and any genuine excuses at york or if he just wasnt fast enough then HE DOESNT NEED TO RUN HIM HERE.
The master is running him here and is confident.
WATCH AND LEARN
THOSE WHO DOUBT THE MASTER WILL BE EDUCATED AT HAYDOCK
4/1 is so big its scary. This horse is a 5f beast.September 3, 2019 at 12:10 #1452763
Fairyland ran a cracker in the july cup from the wrong side of the track, if she hadnt gone to the nunthorpe I’d strongly fancy her to reverse form with advertise so couldve been bang there in this
Obrein has campaigned her terribly all year
Fully agree on pretty much everything else
it was definitely said after the july cup that TS appreciated the fast ground
And it will take a lot of mental strength from the horse to recover so fast from the alien experience of running over 5f against much faster horses than he has ever faced
It could very well take him a run to get back to himselfSeptember 3, 2019 at 12:26 #1452764
I’m a big big AOB fan for one, but to be fair, he says most of his horses show a lot of speed!
I’ve no strong reason to doubt him on one performance Potato, but I wouldn’t take short odds on him over 5F next time. I prefer to see on track confirmation that he is a 5F horse, to take anything short in the market, so now he has a question mark to answer based on that performance.
This one is over 6F though and he has proven impressively he can win over this distance. The problem I have is the ground. If we see better ground by Saturday, I will probably back him, even if it’s just a saver against the 2 picks I’ve done above. But there is a fair doubt right now, that he doesn’t want ground on the slow side of good ideally. That’s enough to put me off right at this moment.
If the ground went GF on Saturday, I’d be all over him again, but I can’t see that happening based on the forecast and current ground conditions.September 3, 2019 at 13:02 #1452766Red Rum 77Participant
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Frenchy15 mine in knowledge of sprinters is poor. However reading your write up on your thoughts these runners that I’m going to follow you on Dream Of Dreams.September 3, 2019 at 13:36 #1452769Red Rum 77Participant
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Managed to get on Khadeem and Dream Of Dreams, see Pat’s Ante Post Comp for details
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