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Looks like a cracking renewal if those included in the 5 day decs are declared. Fancy Safe Voyage if the going is good to soft or softer. The early 5/1 in a few places yesterday was soon snapped up.
Exactly how I saw it, just wish I had a unibet account as they initially priced safe voyage up at 7/1
Hopefully the rain forecast for tomorrow, friday evening and saturday hits the track as safe voyage would be a confident shout on proper soft ground
I’m happy with my 5/1 and if the deluge arrives can see him being 5/2 at most come saturday
Nice price FF, you should get a unibet account for future!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I’d be expecting quite a few will swerve this, particularly if the going does end up soft with the City Of York Stakes having the exact same race conditions over 7F next week and a bigger prize pot. No idea why we have this situation with 7F group horses it wasn’t that long ago we had the Lennox (also a G2) but hardly anything before or after.
Am on Donjuan Triumphant who will love the ground and at 16/1 looks overpriced to me!!
I know he might not be up to this class but the ground will inconvenience others and could bring him into the reckoning
8 declared for Saturday: Sir Dancealot, Donjuan Triumphant, Flaming Spear, Glorious Journey, Hey Gaman, Librisa Breeze, Safe Voyage and Space Traveller.
Flaming spear ew at 12/1 looks a cracker of a bet imo.
Has won in the month of August for the last 2 years running after being unplaced at ascot 1st time out. In fact he has never been beaten in the month of August beating 32 horses in the process.
Started off at goodwood this time but ran really well behind many of these rivals. Only 2 3/4 length behind sir dancealot off levels, gets 3lb off him here and will be in much better condition this time. Looks a certainty to beat that runner yet is 4 times the price??
FS has won on good, good to firm, polytrack, tapers and good/soft ground.
May well be soft ground on Saturday but that will be no issue at all and he clearly goes on any ground. 2nd on his handicap debut on soft ground as a 3yo (beat 15 rivals)and arguably his strongest piece of form came at Ascot on soft ground, running off 110 in a red hot ascot handicap, completely fluffed the break and appeared to have no chance but finished like a bullet and would have got up in a 3 more strides from an impossible position.
Now I’m not the kind of guy to go round making outrageous statements but FLAMING SPEAR should be no bigger than 6/4 to win this race yet you can get 12/1 3 places.
Really should be favourite to win this race and a huge run looks a certainty.
‘Dazzling’ Dean Ivory is absolutely on fire, he has already had 6 winners this August and we aren’t even half way through the month. His best ever month as a trainer he got 7 winners, this is almost a certainty to be Dean’s best ever month of all time as a racehorse trainer.
Can’t believe I’ve went the whole season without betting him, he’s a real old favourite, so with more showers on the way by the look of things, I’ll go with Donjuan Triumphant at 14’s.
Might make sense to go each way, as it’s a decent line up.
Donjuan Triumphant 14’s EW
I keep looking at the race and although I am very confident that Flaming spear will win this race I simply cannot leave Librissa Breeze out at 25/1 so have backed him ew.
Sent off favourite for this race in 2018 but didnt get his ground and came last. The more rain the better for his chance.
This is his first run of the season but in 2016 he won 1st time up in a handicap at wolverhampton. That was his career best form at that point in time.
In 2017 1st time up he ran in an ascot group 1, he was beaten just over 2 lengths and that was at that point his lifetime best form.
So in 2016 and 2017 he produced career best form 1st time up.
His first run of the 2018 season he ran flat and was unplaced however that was in a different hemisphere and different continent. That Meydan run can be completely forgotten. He never really got going last season after that, a lot of horses struggle to reacclimatise after going to the middle east and that very possibly happened last season.
He actually started off last season rated 119, he is now rated 105 but with no trip to the middle east to mess him up this time he may be capable of returning as that 119 horse we all know and love. If he can return to that level first time up this year which is extremely possible then a shake of the reins and this race is over, he will destroy them but it is an if. At 25/1 and with August 2019 almost certain to go down as Dean Ivorys best ever month as a trainer then I’m certainly prepared to pay my money and take my chances here.He was 2nd in this race in 2017 on soft ground and that was his 3rd run in a shortish space of time. He is at his best fresh so if he gets soft ground this year then you should be taking him very seriously.
I can see only one outcome and that’s an interview on itv racing after the hungerford with the winning trainer ‘Dazzling’ Dean Ivory. My only question is which one wins.
I would price the race up something like this (forgive me pricing experts as this book is not worked to a percentage)
FLAMING SPEAR 6/4
LARISA BREEZE 3/1
HEY GAMAN 9/2
SAFE VOYAGE 8/1
SIR DANCEALOT 16/1
GLORIOUS JOURNEY 20/1
DON JUAN TRIUMPHANT 25/1
SPACE TRAVELLER 33/1A marginal preference for Hey Gaman to reverse Goodwood form with Sir Dancealot. That was a slow run race and Hey Gaman shows better figures overall.
If it heaves it down overnight on my old patch then Donjuan Triumphant comes into the equation as capable at this level. He’s a good few lengths better in the mud.
Think I will take another chance on Hey Gaman also here. I simply don’t understand why Safe Voyage is favourite personally. Why is he favourite? Hey Gaman is a course and distance winner on soft and already beaten Safe Voyage at the Curragh, makes no sense to me.
Hey Gaman maybe would’ve improved a little, but didn’t like the track at Goodwood and gets 3lbs on Sir Dancealot this time on more favourable ground.
Donjuan Triumphant’s soft form is all over 6F and the others have a fair bit to find really.
I think Sir Dancealot is the class act in this field though and had the ground not been soft, he’d have been a confident selection. If he continues to drift, he will be worth a saver or EW bet.
Hey Gaman 7/2
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