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Entries out……
https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/nunthorpe-stakes/winner
At first glance, it doesn’t look as strong an entry as usual, but I’m sure come the day it will be a cracker.
The one who did jump out at me was Norfolk winner, A’Ali. Very impressed with him, and though just a baby, he gets an entry, and near head of the market.
It’s a race I like to go for an outsider though, and I usually back one early at a price. It’s been a very consistent approach for me, with the majority of them not even making it to the race.
This year will be different though, and I’ve went with a horse I’ve always liked, El Astronaute. Yes, he does throw in the odd howler, and this is a step into the unknown, but he’s fresh from yet another win in The Rockingham. That was off the back of another win in a listed event at Cork, and I think they’ll give it a go. It’s safe to say that he’s as good as ever this year, and though he’s likely to come up just short, he’s worth a crack at it. Has a good track record, and he’s a decent price.
It would make sense to wait, but I’ve had an early go.
El Astronaute 33’s Each Way
EQUILATERAL 16/1
My pal Jack give me clog over this he will but look at race and has chance of a shock.Though Baatash in it but heard from Hills in stable that he not go here.While the bet will probaly have his prep for race at weekend over CD in listed race on saturday.
I’m a huge fan of Archer’s Dream who is unbeaten in 3 career starts. Doubt she’d be ready for a Group 1 this season (hopefully connections don’t retire her before she gets a chance) but she’s entered here on Friday and would be worth keeping an eye on long-term. She’s yet to race over 5 furlongs, so far from certain she’ll even turn up.
Interesting shout Krypton. She totally passed me by, but gave her a look, and a very decent looking prospect. You’ll get a good idea about her now she’s declared for Friday.
Backable price too at around 4’s.
Interesting stat in this, of the last 6 winners, 4 were CD winners over 5F and the other 2 were 2nd over CD in listed races. That goes against both Ten Sovereigns and Battaash and this race has been littered with shocks. Think I’ll take both on…..Now, who with…..
Agree Frenchy, plenty of big prices in the past. I’m seriously considering Ornate at 66’s, 5f definitely his trip.
I’m still wanting to bet El Astronaute again, but he’s missing from a couple of lists. Make sense to wait now anyway, as price should hold.
I quite like the look of Garrus at 20/1. CD winner, bit slowly away last 2 but finished well and placed, but another good stat is that the last 9 winners came from stalls 7-11. Coincidence?
Jason Hart interviewed today, and looks like all systems go for El Astronaute according to him. Still not fully convinced, but a bit more hopeful now.
Also took some of the 66’s Each Way for Ornate. I much prefer him at this trip, and his run behind Battash At Goodwood offered a bit of hope.
I like Mabs Cross here. This will surely be his priority for the season, and I think 5-1 is a nice price looking at last year’s race.
When does battash become backable is the question
If he drifts to 3/1 on the day have to say I’d be tempted
I like Mabs Cross based on the last year, but 5/1 isn’t much value for me with Battaash and Ten Sovereigns in surely? That said I wouldn’t back Battaash until he drifted out to 5s or 6s and if he did I’d be worried why! Lol
I like Soldiers Call and Garrus at the moment but both 3year olds so not ideal
I wasn’t impressed by Battaash at Goodwood given the level of opposition he faced and that we know the track suits him well, he was never in danger of being beaten but I’d like to have seen him put a bit more distance between himself and what was basically a Group 3/Listed standard of opponent – El Astronaute was the 2nd highest rated in the field on the day. It was strange because I was convinced he’d ran better at Ascot than he did last year and he was as impressive at Haydock as last year but Goodwood definitely wasn’t for me.
I’m really not sure about Ten Sovereigns either over 5F as he was most impressive in the closing stages of the July Cup. If he can lay up and not be outpaced with what’s sure to be a well-run 5F pace with Ornate, El Astronaute, Copper Knight, Soldiers Call etc… all probably not nearly good enough to win but fast horses in the early stages of a race, he will surely be flying at the finish.
I’m not convinced Mabs Cross has improved again this season and although she was unlucky last year, what price would you make Alpha Delphini this year? She was 14/1 last year and doesn’t appeal nearly as much at single figures.
I have no idea yet what I’ll be backing it’s a bit of a minefield.
Great to see El Astronaute confirmed, and even better to see 40’s available to four places with Unibet.Had to top up.
I’ll also top up Ornate again to the max places, but I’ll hold off to see if he can hit 100’s.
BATTASH for me at 5/2 purely because its five furlongs.
Main danger is Soldiers Call and at 16/1 looks a decent each way bet
I was looking back through Ten Sovereigns sectionals from Ascot compared to Newmarket and it just goes to show how very different the two 6F courses are plus the differing ground conditions. I mean to most it’s quite obvious Ascot poses the stiffer test but the numbers really helped put it into perspective for me.
Nobody went sub 11 seconds for any of the Commonwealth Cup and Ten Sovereigns fastest sectional was 11.15 seconds. I should point out this wasn’t just down to it being at Ascot, the ground played a part too as everybody went sub 11 seconds at some stage of the Diamond Jubilee and around half the field managed it in the Wokingham, both on faster ground, but the sub 11 second furlong would literally just be a single furlong of the six. By contrast at Newmarket the entire field in the July Cup ran sub 11 seconds for furlongs 2, 3, 4 and all of the first 7 home did the 5th furlong sub 11 seconds too. Just goes to show how easily the turnaround in form between Ten Sovereigns and Advertise is explained by the greater speed test Newmarket posed, indeed backed up by Advertise following up in the Maurice De Gheest over the extended 6.5F in Deauville. That’s a very good horse Ten Sovereigns has beaten comprehensively and if he can keep tabs on this pace he could run riot in that final furlong when the others won’t have the ability to sustain it.
I can’t explain why Battaash runs so badly at York or at least he has done to date. A school of thought might be that he’s a bit of a flat track bully choosing to show his best in Group 2 company or lower but being found wanting in Group 1 company, he does still have the sole success at Chantilly in the Abbaye in 2017 from 6 Group 1 attempts which is ridiculous when you are talking about a horse rated as highly as he is and regarded as the best sprinter in Britain by many. Perhaps that illustrates one of the flaws with official ratings in Group races, you get horses like Battaash who are capable of running away with races and putting up the odd outstanding performance then you get your Stradivarius’ who beats everything in his division every day of the week but because he only does it by what he has to he appears on ratings to have little in hand, indeed he’s supposedly 1lb inferior to Dee Ex Bee tomorrow under his penalty but the betting tells the whole story.
Back to the Nunthorpe, I like Soldiers Call’s price relative to Mabs Cross given they are very closely matched on the two bits of form they have against each other he was beaten by her in the Abbaye by a neck where Battaash under performed in 4th, which was a colossal effort for a 2 year old at the time. He’s turned the tables in the Kings Stand beating her by a nose and yes he had the run of the race but actually she’s come to claim him for 3rd and he’s battled back up Ascot’s hill. That toughness will stand him in good stead with the likely pace tussle. There’s a big price discrepancy because she went so close last year and because Dods trained Meccas Angel to win the race twice and in my opinion there’s not much between them on ability.
If there is to be a shock this race won’t take much winning necessarily as Alpha Delphini only needed to run to 115 last year. That would take both the principles to vastly under perform but it does happen.
Big IF here, but i think Garrus has the potential to at least be in the money here, as long as they’ve fixed his tardy starts. Hills says they hope they have but we know that’s doesn’t always transpire on the track. He was progressive for Noseda before a mid season switch to Hills, where he seems to have developed this slow start technique which hasn’t helped him. He’d have won his first start probably and finished at least a good second at the Curragh behind Soffia.
He’s obviously second string for Hills but Battaash probably won’t finish that strongly if his record at York continues, and this guy will, as long as he’s not completely run off his feet early doors. The pace here will be strong, and i think TenS will relish that and probably win convincingly, however, i can’t help getting involved in Garrus on the exchanges win + place in case there’s a shock. Hopefully he’ll be ridden to place with his strong finish + who knows after that! He’s beat Soldier’s Call twice now, albeit once getting 5, but i’d say this guy is still developing while SC is the finished product. SC has proven he can race with the big guns, with his 3rd behind Blue Point, and hopefully Garus can do the same.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!
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