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TEN SOVERIGNS to win doing somersaults, pulling a cart and with Ryan Moore having a chance to update facebook in the final half furlong.
I’m utterly disgusted at myself but I’ve just backed Battaash.
I’ve thought all season, like last season, he’s to be taken on here but I thought I’d be laying him at around Evens. The introduction of Ten Sovereigns to the race because he won a poor July Cup means the fastest horse around is 5/2.
I’ve had to have some 5/2 as win or lose, it’s just too big. In 12 hours time, 5/2 about Battaash might look like one of the strangest prices of the whole flat season.
For what it’s worth, id probably price it:
Battaash 13/8
Ten Sovereigns 2/1
Mabs Cross 6/1
Fairyland 14/1
Bar 25/1Battaash @ 5/2
I would be forced to disagree that the July Cup was weak?
2nd placed Advertise has come out and won a group 1 since.
8th placed GLORIOUS JOURNEY has since won a grade 2 (pulled clear with librisa breeze and is likely capable of winning a group 1)
9th placed 66/1 shot MAJOR JUMBO has since come out and won a listed race.
The form is strong.
No Nay Never the father of Ten Soverigns was so fast he was able to win over 4 1/2 furlongs.
He has produced lots of 2yo winners over 5f. He has so far only had 3 offspring run over 5f as 3yos the form figures are 2-1-1 (66% won and its very likely to be 75% won after today).
Aiden knows what he is doing.
1999-STRAVINSKY thrice gets beaten at 7f. The genius Aiden O’Brien drops him back to 6f for the Newmarket July Cup. Stravinsky spreadeagles the field and has 4 lengths back to 2nd place.
Audaciously Aiden then drops him to 5f and sends him to the Nunthorpe. Aiden got it spot on he hacked up.In 2001 they had high hopes for Mozart as a miler but unfortunately he got beat in 3 runs over a mile before winning at ascot over 7f. Aiden then dropped him again to 6f and sent him to Newmarkets July cup where he duly bolted up by 3 1/2 lengths.
Audaciously he then sent him over 5f to the Nunthorpe where he won comfortably. Aiden got it spot on.It bears zero relevance to todays race that the market has often got it wrong in the nunthorpe and an outsider won. Whats more relevant in the context of this race is that when Aiden changes plans and switches to sprinting in the july cup and then drops them to 5f for the Nunthorpe they hack up.
That is much more relevant to todays race than the fact that a few outsiders won the race and caused a shock. Evens and 4/9 was the price of Stravinsky and Mozart come start time for the nunthorpe that they won.
Ten Soverigns is the banker of the meeting
Stravinskys nunthorpe:
Mozarts nunthorpe:
Garrus at 40/1 is an unbelievable price for me. Sticking with my original bets Garrus and Soldiers Call might add El Astronaute. Ten Sovereigns is way to short, maybe he’ll hack up but 6/4 in this race, no thanks
6/4 in a race where nothing else will even get close is in fact fantastic value. This horse should be heavy odds on in my opinion.
If Enable was 1/4 to win yesterday then Ten Soverigns should be 1/6 to win today as there was an outside chance that enable could run flat after the king george.
The race is merely for 2nd place today. Absolute stone cold certainty Ten Soverigns today.
Heard you say that a few times though Potato!
1/6?! Your outrageous confident shouts are amusing to read I’ll give you that!
What’s your strike right on horses you’ve confidently said will hose up so far this year?!
Can’t trust Battaash here so I’m against him but I wouldn’t feel too bad if he won. Ten Sovereigns is plenty short but probably deserves to be that price.
Mabs Cross for me. One run at York beaten a nose in this race in a quick time. Horses for courses. One group 1 win to her name and had Mosse on board that day. I hope they’ve got it right by putting him back on here.
Horses for courses.Frenchy Your implying that I am repeating myself whilst completely ignoring your own actions:
On 19/08/2019 you wrongly claim that because the last 6 winners had either been 1st or 2nd that it was against Bataash and Ten Soverigns. This makes zero difference to the chances of either horse today.
On the same day around 8 hours later you reveal you like Garrus and then say that you have found another great stat and that the last 9 winners came from stall 7-11 and end with the word ‘coincidence!’. This is quite odd for two main reasons the first one is that Garrus isnt drawn in stalls 7 to 11 so if you think its so important to be drawn here why are you tipping something else?
Perhaps more worryingly the actual truth is that the last 9 winners were drawn between stall 1 and 9 in a fairly equal split witg the average race runners being around 10 it shows zero advantage. Hilariously for somebody who likes to call out others you have looked at the number of runners not the draw of the winner and even then you managed to got it wrong.But you werent finished yet. The next day you tell us you like Mabs Cross but that you also like Soldiers Cross and Garrus and if Baatash goes 5/1 then you like that one as well.
You then make yet another outrageous claim where you claim that 3yos have a disadvantage in this race and you imply that you really need an older horse. In fact 3yos have won the Nunthorpe more than any other age group?Today for the 3rd time you inform the the thread that you like Garrus and Soldiers Call but now you may alsoninclude El Astronaute.
Theres a phrase ‘people in glasshouses shouldnt throw stones’ and if you want to compare me and you then I am not putting out false information out on this race which you have done twice with the incorrect draw stat claim and the implication that you dont want to be on a 3yo when in fact they have the best winning record. Your beyond a joke trying to call me out here.
Im glad my pricing of 1/6 amuses you. I think the horse is an absolute certainty and 1/6 reflects my thoughts but whatever.
And as for my strike rate on horses that I said will hose up? Absolutely no idea.
Nunthorpe age of winners – 60 runnings of the race.
2yos – 2 wins
3yos – 27 wins
4yos – 15 wins
5yos -10 wins
6yos – 2 wins
7yos – 4 wins
9yos -1 winsIt doesnt matter what age you are if good enough and although 3yos have won consoderably more than any other age group you would need to know how many 3yos have ran in the 60 years, how many 4yos have ran in the 60 years etc to see which age group is best here.
Without having these figures i would guess that hardly any 2yos have ran in the race and they have the best strike rate here though that is only my guess.
Ultimately though and especially with there being no 2yos this year then I dont think the age is a major concern here.
The best horse will win.
Haha potato you need to chill a bit my friend, don’t take yourself so seriously!
When I look at trends, I look at the last 10 usually, sometimes 20, but usually 10 otherwise too far back and things can change too much with variables. The draw stat was more a question rather than a matter of fact. Seems weird that such a small range of draw numbers has won this race recently but I probably think it’s just coincidence hence why I’m still backing Garrus.
The last 6 winners having strong course form is not to be ignored. I don’t think you can say it makes zero difference. I don’t use trends blindly, I use them to guide my thinking, but 6/4 TS id want proven course form in there. York’s a weird track.
As I’m sure you know the game is about value and I like Mabs across but not value for me at the moment , likewise TS and Battaash, I like all 3 of those horses but I won’t back them at the price in singles.
I’m not on here to annoy people or call people out, was just a bit of fun. Saying TS is a 1/6 shot is an outrageous claim that deserves some banter.
I’ll probably put him in a treble anyway today just because I won so much money in the July Cup so I love him. I’d be happy if he won today.
Good Luck and don’t be too serious on here!
Good luck Potato, you’ve obviously taken a real shine to the horse. It wouldn’t surprise me if he were to hack up but it also wouldn’t surprise me if he just wasn’t quick enough for a 5f group 1.
P.S try not to get too het up if you believe there to be some provocation, it’s all a game.
Perhaps more worryingly the actual truth is that the last 9 winners were drawn between stall 1 and 9 in a fairly equal split witg the average race runners being around 10 it shows zero advantage. Hilariously for somebody who likes to call out others you have looked at the number of runners not the draw of the winner and even then you managed to got it wrong
You are wrong on the draw, check again Potato
This will actually be the first time I have ever backed the horse to be honest. I just feel he has a bit of Frankel level superiprity over these runners and believe the only thing that could stop him today is a faulty stall, an injury mid race or Ryan Moore falling off so in fact my pricing of 1/6 is actually far too big and I should have said shorter.
Mr Chivers I can assure you I never get aggitated from an internet forum and its a good thing people have different opinions. This son of a 4.5f winner is certainly quick enough though, do not worry about that one
My stating the facts in an authorative tone was merely due to Frenchy calling me out for posting too much. I Just put him right on the matter as he felt the need to attempt to belittle me. Its right I should stand my ground nothing to do with being annoyed or angry.
You are correct Frenchy (enjoy it only time on this thread can that be said). I was on the gimcrack page last 10 years when i wrote that, I thought i was on nunthorpe.
So yiur Draw claim is actually correct though it remains bizzare that you think its signficant to be drawn 7-11 yet 4 of the 5 horses you want to back are not drawn 7-11.
This meaningless stat on the draw will continue again this year as this years winner is sent from heaven and drawn 11.
You are correct Frenchy (enjoy it only time on this thread can that be said). I was on the gimcrack page last 10 years when i wrote that, I thought i was on nunthorpe.
So yiur Draw claim is actually correct though it remains bizzare that you think its signficant to be drawn 7-11 yet 4 of the 5 horses you want to back are not drawn 7-11.
Don’t go mouthing off without checking things properly is probably a good learning for you then. Im fine with what I write, whether you think it’s correct or not is irrelevant to me. Reading properly what people write without getting all worked up over something so small is also a good learning for you. I literally just said the draw stat is probably coincidence.
Heard you say that a few times though Potato!
1/6?! Your outrageous confident shouts are amusing to read I’ll give you that!
What’s your strike right on horses you’ve confidently said will hose up so far this year?! 
You will find I was ‘mouthing off’ to your original post that was purposefully written to antagonise a response from me. When you recieved it ‘I needed to chill and relax’ then you realised I made a mistake on the draw part and you are back to attack mode.
You are a young child almost certainly one of those clowns who hassled non stop about the legend elegant escape last year. Clearly jut changed your name due to continuously embarrassing yourself on the forum.
No doubt you will change your name again soon. I will always be potato.
Anyway this is boring you begged me to react with your initial post now dont cry for me agentina.
Its meant to be about the nunthorpe and as such I will ignore any input you put my way at any time from here on as you are immature and bring nothing to my table.
The trouble with forums is the tone doesn’t get across. What I posted was merely banter, a little bit of fun. As I said don’t take yourself so seriously, you are a sensitive soul clearly. I’ve seen you kick off a few times in here.
Your posts do amuse me a lot though so thanks for that! Literally got no idea what you’re talking about re names! I get absolutely no ego boost by writing on forums, I do it for entertainment and some learning. Clearly you like the ego boost.
You will always be a potato that’s for sure
Let’s move on and talk about the race. Why would TS be a 1/6 shot for you with Battaash in? Think he’s definitely a horse that hates York?
Baatash isnt even on my radar I doubt he will get 2nd today.
TEN SOVERIGN is the best sprinter to come out of Ireland since 2001. He could be THE BEST sprinter that Ireland has ever produced in time.
He is a little bit special this horse.
This is a superstar. Forget about Bataash and his group 2 wins.
He will get absolutely slammed today by a sprinting SUPERSTAR
Nobody seems to realise just how great this TEN SOVERIGNS is as a sprinter.
Maybe he will become
EUROPES GREATEST SPRINTER OF ALL TIME
Im not ruling that out.
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