Portland Handicap 2019

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This topic contains 18 replies, has 8 voices, and was last updated by BigG BigG 6 days, 22 hours ago.

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  • #1453254
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 15620

    Always a cracker this…..

    https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/portland-handicap/winner

    This was never a race where I could really look at objectively. Not only were real favourites of mine, A Momentofmadness & Justanotherbottle certain to get an entry, but I also can’t see them far away either. I’ve bet them sparingly this year, but I won’t miss them this weekend.

    I’ve a slight preference for Madness here. He won this last year, comes here off the back of a blinding performance against Dakota Gold at York, which is rock solid, and the extra yards that day made a massive difference. This trip is perfect, and even off the back of that run, he’s still 4lbs lower than last year, and I’m delighted to see Buick Booked. Win only just now, but I’ll watch the market, and snap up the five places early if I have to.

    Bottle ran a cracker again in The Stewards Cup, but back to the minimum trip at Sandown, he did the business. Up a few pounds for that, and though his flop at York is hard to forget, he still looks well treated. I haven’t bet him yet, with him not jocked up, and also with Ayr on the horizon, but any market activity would see me have an early bet.

    As mentioned, that run by Madness behind Dakota Gold is rock solid, and hot franked again yesterday, and it also enhances the chances of Arecibo, Watchable, Marnie James, and Makanah.

    As I said, always a cracker, and that lot could reappear here, not to mention a whole host of top drawer sprinters…..

    Bielsa looks a deserved favourite, but just behind in the market is Dazzling Dan, and this is a horse I really think could just keep on progressing, and it looks like Pam Sly has dug out another decent one.

    Such is the strength here I could go on all day, but I’ll leave it at quick mentions for the back in form Growl, the hard to write off Orvar, and a pair who I could easily see outrunning their 33’s, Spoof, and Teruntum Star.

    Watching brief for Justanotherbottle then, but first bet will be A Momentofmadness, initially win only, but I’ll keep an eye on things, should there be a chance I muss the five places at double figures.

    A Momentofmadness 12’s

    #1453407
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
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    Took the 12’s for Justanotherbottle, and covered the five places as well.

    Frankie Dettori an eyecatching booking, so he might even go a lot lower now.

    A Momentofmadness 12’s
    Justanotherbottle 12’s
    Justanotherbottle 10’s EW 5 Places

    #1453738

    TheTinMan87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 59

    Thank god we’ve finally got a decent sized field for a race at Doncaster this week which isn’t either a 2 year old sales race or a fillies/mare group race :good: I was staggered how badly so many of the Group races in particular have cut up this week it really doesn’t reflect well on the meeting imo.

    Will look at this one closer later on today when I have more time but Wentworth Falls right at the bottom of the handicap jumps out to me immediately, he’s something of a course specialist who hasn’t done his winning yet this season but largely been running well. Pieces go back on to replace the visor from last time out which I think would have been a pipe opener at Thirsk following a mini-break. He’s well handicapped on a few bits of form and was 3rd in this last year off 4lbs higher.

    Although he’ll be the roughie on most books I always thought Teruntum Star could have been a group horse for Kevin Ryan but he’s clearly gone off the rails somewhat and he’s an intriguing runner on his first start for David Griffiths who does well with his older sprinters, another who looks well handicapped if the old spark can be ignited.

    Bielsa and A Momentofmadness look obvious contenders and Gunmetal might finally be a backable price off a couple of lesser efforts. Just glancing through the runners I know well the pace is largely drawn mid-high and that’s generally the place to be in this with the last 8 winners drawn in double digits so perhaps that draw could have been kinder to Gunmetal and Wentworth Falls.

    #1453795
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 15620

    Pleased to see I wasn’t completely losing it with Teruntum Star TTM.

    I haven’t bet him myself, but he’s definitely a dark one at a price.

    #1453801

    TheTinMan87
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    • Total Posts 59

    I’ve got a shortlist of A Momentofmadness, Wentworth Falls, Gunmetal, Orvar and Teruntum Star probably in that order but it’d be pure speculation as to what state Griffiths has got Teruntum Star into so it’ll be a watching brief for him but one to monitor over the coming weeks, I have it in my head and in fairness the formbook seems to back up that Orvar will want softer than the good-firm ground we have at the moment so I’ll pass on him as well.

    A Momentofmadness (12/1) and Gunmetal (16/1) appeal more as win only bets at this point as I make them both all or nothing sorts in terms of their overall profiles and the context of this big field. I think other than maybe Muthmir they would be the two best handicapped horses in the race who wouldn’t surprise me if they won.

    Wentworth Falls (20/1) makes more sense to split the stakes as an each-way selection mainly on account of him not winning a race since April 2017 and having a string of 2 and 3’s against his form profile. He’ll need luck in running as well with his hold up style but this is his course and he was mighty unlucky last year.

    #1454789
    Chivers1987
    Chivers1987
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    • Total Posts 872

    William Hill paying 7 places online for this. I thought Bielsa travelled very nicely against hardened handicappers last time after a fair bit of time off. I feel he can overcome his relative inexperience and is worthy of a punt at 6/1.
    It would be nice to see Kevin Stott ride a big race winner this week after handing over the reins to the Doyler for Hello Youmzain’s maiden group 1 win in the Sprint Cup.

    #1454805
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
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    Seven places is unreal Chivers, and I’ve went in again on Bottle with the seven, as his price has held nicely.

    #1454817

    Mike007
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    • Total Posts 1057

    I too have decided to go with the potential rather than the exposed. Bielsa ew.

    #1454835
    raymo61
    raymo61
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    • Total Posts 4485

    Looks wide open this Bobby!!

    Have backed three six places

    OPEN WIDE 14/1
    DAZZLING DAN 12/1
    GREEN POWER 22/1

    Think you need a double figure draw and be handy too!

    #1454842

    potato
    Participant
    • Total Posts 680

    SHOWSTEALER 50/1 5 places VC

    Wasnt sure whether to take a lower price and get more places or take the 50 with 5 places. Have gone with the bigger price and 5.

    The only time she ran in a big field class 2 handicap she won it earlier in the season off 84 (16 runners). Won again next time off 87. Has been beaten off todays mark in her last 2 races but they were small field races on undulating tracks and she may have been ran with todays race in mind. Returns to a flat surface today and could resume progress.
    Nicely drawn with a nice weight and joxkey cameron noble taking off a handy 3lb.
    I think she definitely has a chance today.

    #1454874
    BigG
    BigG
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    • Total Posts 5871

    I’ve been expecting Watchable to come good in one of these big handicaps
    for a while now, and he didn’t do too badly last time out at York where although he finished
    5th he was only 1 1/2L behind Dakota Gold. That’s a pretty respectable run, considering how good
    Dakota Gold is, and he runs off the same mark today. Problem is that he’s drawn 3, and the stats
    don’t bode well for for low drawn runners. Had he been drawn on the opposite side I’d have been
    quite bullish about his chances, but at 50/1 I’m prepared to give him chance.

    If I was to try and even out the draw, and have one on the other side, I’d have a go with Green Power.
    He did well last time he ran here back in March when he finished a running on 4th, only going down
    by 3/4L. He seems to be on the up with his last 2 runs being decent wins at Goodwood. I like the
    booking of Gerald Mosse and I’d give him a decent shout at 28/1.

    Tough race, good luck all :good:

    #1454882

    potato
    Participant
    • Total Posts 680

    Have also gone with ORVAR ew at 25/1

    2 wins from 2 runas at Doncaster. Nicely drawn and kindly rated on past form. Probably also been layed out for this. Must have a chance.

    #1454908
    Chivers1987
    Chivers1987
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    • Total Posts 872

    Unlucky with Madness VTC, ran another big race. Nice work with Show Stealer Potato, I’ll be looking out for that one back over 6f.

    I wasn’t surprised by Bielsa finishing way back, last race may have taken too much out of him after his layoff. I still think he was worth a small token at 6/1. Anything under that and I doubt I’d have bothered.

    #1454924

    potato
    Participant
    • Total Posts 680

    Thank You Chivers far too kind. :rose:

    #1454955
    BigG
    BigG
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5871

    First class potato, that was a great e/w shout :good:

    You nearly had a right touch there Bobby, but that Fallon guy is
    a chip off the old block.

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