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Advertise should probably be hard to beat here and i’d think he will be fine on the ground, but at the price i’d say he’s worth taking on.
TenS might not run and probably won’t be suited by soft going.
Khaadem was impressive last time, but again, for me is no certainty to enjoy the ground.
Dream of Dreams hasn’t been missed with a few tipsters putting him up + i can see why, especially when 12s compared to his July Cup price. Has form on soft.
Hello Youmzain is potentially very interesting. Kevin Ryan has Brando in here too, but HY is the one with more improvement. He came from the back in the CWC and shaped well. Finished in a line with San Donato giving him 6 and i think he’s a good horse too. I’d hope he’ll show the necessary improvement to be in the shake up.
Brando and Waldpfad are arguably overpriced compared to Advertise and Khaadem. However, i’d hope something will improve past Brando. Waldpfad was it a fluke?
The other i like is Forever In Dreams who is proven on soft, while others near her in the market like Fairyland + So Perfect aren’t. Like HY, she is running her first race since the CWC, but on that form she’s defo overs.
It’ll be interesting to see what ones of AOB’s show up, but i wouldn’t like to be on any of them.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!KEVIN RYAN JOCKEYS CURRENT YEAR:
K STOTT -18 wins (15%)
T EAVES – 13 wins (13%)
J DOYLE – 0 wins (0%)LAST 5 YEARS:
K STOTT 103 wins (16%)
T EAVES 68 wins (11%)
J DOYLE 0 wins (0%) (7 rides)HAYDOCK SPRINT CUP JOCKEY BOOKINGS:
BRANDO 14/1 – T EAVES
HELLO YOUMZAIN 12/1 – J DOYLE
MAJOR JUMBO 66/1 – K STOTTTom Eaves has a long term connection with Brando so its completely understandable he is riding.
HELLO YOUMZAIN has had 6 races. He won 3 times was placed twice and unplaced once. Kevin Stott rode him 5 times. James Doyle rode when he was unplaced.
Kevin Stott usually rides Major Jumbo, he rode for the win last time, he rode for 2nd behind Invincible Spirit earlier in the season in the group 2. Spencer has rode him a few times this year also.
Kevin Stott is clearly Kevin Ryans top jockey. Eaves long term connection with Brando completely explains why he is riding that.
Surely Kevin Stott has been given the choice between riding Major Jumbo and Hello Youmzain?
The jockey bookings clearly suggest that Major Jumbo is expected to run better than Hello Youmzain?
This doesnt surprise me at all that he has chosen Major Jumbo as he is the sprinter in form and is improving all the time. His time has clearly come to step up and win a group 1.
Hello youmzain has never raced against his elders and may be an early peaker. He may well have already shown his career best form. He looks completely held by ADVERTISE and its hard to see him reversing form with that horse.
This to me explains why Stott has chosen Major Jumbo because he knows the best is still to come and he is still improving and its possible he could improve enough here to beat Advertise where as Hello Youmzain will definitely come up short against that rival.
66/1 on the Kevin Ryan probable first string or 12/1 on the Ryan definite 3rd string
MAJOR JUMBO is one of flat racings GREATEST GIFTS OF ALL TIME
SHAME ON THOSE WHO DOUBT HIS CHANCE HERE
NEVER LOOK A GIFT HORSE IN THE MOUTH
THE ONLY THING WORSE THAN BEING BLIND
IS BEING ABLE TO SEE
BUT HAVING NO VISION
I like him as well Potato, and will have a few quid each way at that 66’s. I’ll also bet him on the exchange if he’s still a big price before the off.
I’ll also cover Brando on the nose at 14’s.
Can’t go mad though, as not that big a betting race, and had already thrown a couple of pounds at Librisa already, but I’ll have enough on to shout them home.
Brando 14’s
Major Jumbo 66’s EWGood on you VTC you are potentially on one of the greatest group 1 bets of all time here.
Time will tell Potato, but I do like him, and I do agree with him being overpriced.
To be honest as much as I like Hello Youmzain I can’t argue with Advertise’s price as favourite, I thought he’d be a bit shorter and he might well be once Ten Sovereigns is inevitably withdrawn.
Forever In Dreams price also looks a bit on the big side from an each-way POV. Khaadem was might impressive in the Stewards Cup but much for the same reasons that I don’t like Dream Of Dreams I don’t like him here – they went very fast in the Stewards Cup early doors, Ornate in particular went out like it was a 4F race. I don’t see it here on a different track on different ground. He’s a buzzy sort who would have thrived off that big field pace and although he does excite me the most of this field going forwards as I think he has a lot of potential, I don’t think tomorrow will seem him to best effect. He looks too short for me.
Won’t be doing anything before Ten Sov’s gets pulled because it’ll be a pointless rule 4 incoming. Intriguing race in store!
Ah S*** yeah, completely forgot that. The 11/4 on Advertise yesterday will get a rule 4 right? Damn it!!
Hello Youmzain definitely can improve with just 6 runs under his belt. A really decent case can be made for him looking at his form. He won a Group 2 on soft as a 2 year old, was a CD winner on his second start as a 3year old, also in a Group 2 on ground faster than is likely ideal and in only his third run as a 3year old, he blew the start in the Commonwealth Cup before finishing 3rd also on ground likely to have been a bit quicker than ideal(The going was changed after this race), so that run can be upgraded a bit as well. His form entitles him to have a very good chance here and it’s possible they’ve waited all summer for the ground to soften so he can be seen in his best light. However, I just don’t like his sire Kodiac as a Group 1 sire. It would be his first I believe and preference is for a better breed horse based on trends. I suspect Hello Youmzain is a very good horse, but not a top level one. He could well place, but 1 or 2 will beat him I think.
Potato, with your jockey stats, surely you need to factor in which races they have been in? IE if Kevin Stott has been winning races in lower grades than the others, then obviously that could be easier?
Forever in Dreams is overpriced I think as well yes. Has too much to find to win in all probability, but is also by Dream Ahead, so could possibly place here.
It’s a really great race this one, can’t wait!
The ground is going to be testing at haydock, and I think that could level things
out quite a bit with the very good and almost very good. I quite fancy the chances
of Invincible Army at 20/1. Although most of his form is on good
and g/f, he handles the soft conditions really well, as in the Gp3 Pavilion Stakes
at Ascot last year, readily pulling away from them. He didn’t fire at all in the
Maurice De Gheest last time out at Deauville, I don’t think he settled too well
and McDonald wasn’t hard on him when it was obvious he wasn’t going to be involved
at the sharp end. I think he will be more at home here. I doubt he will be 20/1 come
the off.I’m also in agreement with Potato on the chances of Major Jumbo. He is another who
will handle the ground well, and although he might find one or two too good, he is
well worth a chance at 66/1, I can see him running into a place,
and you never know if things fall kindly for him.Hello youmzain has never raced against his elders and may be an early peaker. He may well have already shown his career best form. He looks completely held by ADVERTISE and its hard to see him reversing form with that horse.
This to me explains why Stott has chosen Major Jumbo because he knows the best is still to come and he is still improving and its possible he could improve enough here to beat Advertise where as Hello Youmzain will definitely come up short against that rival.
Potato not necessarily knocking you fancying Major Jumbo here but to say he’s on the improve and Hello Youmzain has probably peaked is a tad daft no? MJ 30 races to HY’s 6?
Major Jumbo beat a 91 rated 4yo filly last time who is only 1 from 15 on turf. The form hardly looks progressive, more like, if he doesn’t win that race, you’d be worried!?
Hello Youmzain ran very well last time i thought, he was a tad far back and finished very strongly behind Advertise i thought. Don’t get me wrong the time off has to be a bit of a worry.Wasn’t Major Jumbo “completely held by ADVERTISE” in the July Cup? Just the 3.5Ls behind him…
On the jockey bookings, i can’t take James Doyle as a negative- big race jockey who has massive experience, Kevin Stott has had 14 graded rides in the last 5 years. Not knocking the jockey, but experience helps.
Again we are comparing a 12s shot with a 66s so it’s a tad unfair, but some of your points seem outlandish!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Just to confirm AOB did state to the press that Ten Sovereigns would be declared and would run unless it’s soft on the day whereby they’ll pull him. AOB is one of the most legit with his horses i feel, yes the odd one changes like Japan but that’s horses and plans change.
I took some 17/2 about Khaadem after he was confirmed for this race post-Goodwood but i’m concerned by the ground TBH. He’s a turn of foot horse and generally those types are best shown on faster ground.
Potato not necessarily knocking you fancying Major Jumbo here but to say he’s on the improve and Hello Youmzain has probably peaked is a tad daft no? MJ 30 races to HY’s 6?
No its not daft at all. Some horses peak on their 2yo debut and its all down hill from there on. Some horses peak as early season 3yos and never replicate that level again in their career.
Some horses gradually develop over many years such as REGAL PARADE whos profile mirrors MAJOR JUMBO who is clearly still improving.
A horse who has had 30 runs can still be improving, a horse who has had 6 runs can have already peaked. Its not daft at all. Its daft if you doubt the above to be true.
Also I didnt say that HELLO YOUZMAIN has probably peaked I said he may have already peaked and he may have.Its a 100% certainty that Stott would have had the option of riding Major Jumbo or Hello Youzmain. In fact having ridden Hello Youzmain in ALL of his good runs including his group win. Having ridden that horse 5 out of 6 times compared to MAJOR JUMBO who he has ridden many times including for some of his best races such as the listed win last time. He is actually more closely linked to HELLO YOUZMAIN but has ditched him for Major Jumbo.
Must be a reason why he has done that It could be that they feel that horse has already peaked and he would rather be on the still improving Major Jumbo.
History shows us that the Haydock Sprint Cup is usually won by a horse with experience.
I can only go as far back as 1989 to Danehills win as a 3yo in terms of viewing form.So in 30 runnings a 3yo has won 10 runnings with older horses taking the other 20.
Of those 10 3yos 9 of them has prior experience at racing against their elders.
The only 3yo in the races history (from what I can see) to win this race on his 1st time against his elders was the ferocious TWIGHLIGHT SON who won this race having won 2 2yo races and 2 3yo only handicaps.
Many many apparantley classy 3yos have tried to win the Sprint Cup on their 1st run against elders and every single one failed except TWIGHLIGHT SON.This is a huge negative in the chance of Hello Youzmain here.
Major Jumbo beat a 91 rated 4yo filly last time who is only 1 from 15 on turf. The form hardly looks progressive, more like, if he doesn’t win that race, you’d be worried!?
Hello Youmzain ran very well last time i thought, he was a tad far back and finished very strongly behind Advertise i thought. Don’t get me wrong the time off has to be a bit of a worry.Major Jumbo was rated 69 at end of 2yo season, he was rated 21lb higher on 90 by the end of his 3yo season, he was rated 12lb higher on 104 by the end of his 4yo season. He is currently rated 108 and remains on an upwaed curve.
The listed win last time was his 1st win in patttern company and he hacked up by 3 1/2 lengths as opposed to the previous season in the exact same listed race where he got beat. Which once again highlights he is still improving.
His best run as a 3yo came in SEPEMBER, his best run as a 4yo came in OCTOBER. His best form has come in the autumn when the weather has cooled down. We are now in September and the weather has changed it is autumnal now, expect an even better run on Saturday than any he has produced before.
Obviously group 1 form is going to be stronger than listed form but you need to understand about progression and improvement. As an example though in NH that you may remember. PRESENTING PERCY was a beast early in his career as a novice winning at grade 1 level. By the time of the gold cup he got beaten by horses who were a fair way behind him in the 2018 RSA in Al Boum Photo and Elegant Escape. Al Boum photo had ‘only’ won a listed race against weaker horses prior to the gold cup yet both Horses progressed past Presenting Percy and both finished ahead of him in the gold cup.
This could not have possibly happened using your logic yet it did and it happens all the time. Listed winners improve and are able to step up to the top table and win in both flat and NH.
You will claim this isnt relevant to the Sprint Cup but its one example.
Major Jumbo beat a 91 rated 4yo filly last time who is only 1 from 15 on turf. The form hardly looks progressive, more like, if he doesn’t win that race, you’d be worried!?Again you are unable to see that the weight recieving 91 rated filly showed massive improvemt to get 2nd in that race at odds of 20/1 she backed that run up next time and was just a neck behind the 109 rated PRETTY POLLYANNA.
Major Jumbo won that race very very easily and was giving that filly plenty of weight. It was a very good performance and there were much higher rated horses behind.
Wasn’t Major Jumbo “completely held by ADVERTISE” in the July Cup? Just the 3.5Ls behind him…Yes he was beaten by 3.5 lengths by Advertise in the July cup though is not necessarily completely held. That race was on fast ground but all of MAJORS best form is with cut. Also they werent overly hard on MAJOR JUMBO when it became apparent there was only one winner.
The Haydock Sprint is being run under different conditions and MAJOR JUMBO is still improving so its plausible that MAJOR JUMBO can turn that form around. Though ADVERTISE deserves to be favourite for the Sprint Cup and is rightfully shorter odds than MAJOR JUMBO it is possible the form can be reversed where as I cant see how HELLO YOUZMAIN can reverse form with ADVERTISE.
MAJOR JUMBO is 66/1, ADVERTISE is 11/4 although its correct that advertise should be shorter there is no way on planet earth that price differential is correct and the two horses are a lot closer than that princing suggests. Yes MAJOR JUMBO could beat him this time, he is better drawn than that rival which will help his prominent racing style which is favoured at Haydock, the softer ground is also in his favour. Despite all this ADVERTISE is the correct pre race favourite though is priced accordingly and is not bullet proof.This season MAJOR JUMBO has aleady finished ahead of DREAM OF DREAMS (short head at Newmarket). He has finished in front of BRANDO also(3 1/2 lengths at York).
Neither of those pieces of form should be taken that MAJOR JUMBO will again finish ahead of them in this race though there is certainly a much higher chance than 66/1 that he will.
MAJOR JUMBO has a genuine chance in this race.
Is he a certainty to win? Absolutely not!!!
Is he a certainy to get beat? Absolutely not!!!
Should he be 66/1 in this field? Absolutely not!!!
Is he an outstanding bet at odds of 66/1 in this race under these conditions? Absolutely he is!!!
YOU WOULD NEED TO BE A DUMBO
NOT TO UNDERSTAND THE APPEAL OF 66/1 JUMBO Advertise and Ten Sovereigns both out. After the final decs Frenchy, ante post
rules no longer apply and a rule 4 will come into place. With both the front 2
in the betting out I’d imagine they will take a bit of a chunk off. If I recall
5/2 or 3/1, which is what Advertise was, would be a 25p in the £ deduction. When
you add Ten Sovereigns in, at probably around 4/1, it will be worse than that.I’m glad I got in early with Invincible Army at 20s, he’s best priced 14s
now. I didn’t get in early with Major Jumbo, so I’ll lose a fair chunk of
the 66s. I noticed that Paddy Power were still standing 50/1 on MJ after the 2
defections, and I had boost which made it 55/1, so I topped up there. I think
he has a very decent e/w shout now.Frenchy you have lost your money on Advertise as you backed him antepost.
My 66/1 ew 3 places bet stands and will not get a rule 4. Even if the field cuts up to 3 horses then I still get 66/1 ew places 1-2-3
You really shouldnt be making bets that you dont understand the rules off. Take this bad experience on your part as an education about antepost betting.
Its a shame for people who have backed advertise antepost but thats the chance you take and the risk that goes with it.
Cracking news for TEAM JUMBO though.
It looked like destiny that he would win when I compared him to the 2009 winner. With advertise and ten soverigns out and perhaps more defectors to come in the morning his destiny looks even more likely to happen.
MAJOR JUMBO 2019 SPRINT CUP WINNER
THERE ISNT A DOUBT IN MY MINDIm really fancying his chances now
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