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Perhaps the comparison with Natalie’s Joy was a touch unfair and I do apologise for that it was a touch lazy on my part but she did spring to mind immediately when I looked at the race being a 2 year old for the same trainer off one run going into a better race at a short enough price (for me at least). I understand she didn’t run to form in the Chesham but the example highlights my very issue about Visinari tomorrow – he is a 2 year old having just his 2nd start, there is very little to go off.
For what it’s worth I was very impressed by Visinari as well and the point about time was that a lot of the praise I heard from the better pundits in the racing media or at least the ones I respect were more commenting on the time versus Flavius Titus’ time in a handicap over the same course and distance. I haven’t seen the sectionals for either race to say whether they would actually be fairly comparable but I believe Timeform and Top Speed were suitably impressed with Visinari and indeed Simon Rowlands of ATR who is one of the best around at judging around in this area has tipped Visinari for tomorrow and is very complimentary about his stride length etc…
I don’t even take issue about him being favourite because he did manage it over the same course and distance he runs over tomorrow which counts for a lot and as Ginger quite rightly points out wasn’t a luxury afforded by Natalie’s Joy. Guildsman didn’t win the Coventry and officially the handicapper has erred on the side of caution/negativity towards the Coventry in terms of the ratings afforded to the principles relative to historical performances in the race. I took a more positive view of the front 3 but I must stress 2 year olds aren’t my area of speciality hence me not being able to confidently back a short priced favourite in a Group race at the level stakes I tend to bet at. I personally think the prices are wrong between the first two in the market and Guildsman is an acceptable price for me to get involved.
raymo61 Kings Advice was an my shortlist for the very reason you mentioned, I didn’t think he’d stay the Northumberland trip and they rode him like he wouldn’t stay and he flew home late on. Back down in trip I can see him being bang there. I hadn’t realised Hugo Palmer’s in such rotten form, hasn’t sent a winner out in over 2 weeks and that’s put me off Collide at the last minute, I think he could do with more rain than they’ll get if they get any. Back to the drawing board for me. Tricky puzzle
Edit:
I’m sticking to my guns the York run in particular is very strong form, Corgi and Fujaira Prince both ran well in the Duke Of Edinburgh and Caliburn was just behind and won next time up (Caliburn’s 5lbs higher now) and there’s been bits of good form right through the field.One Master probably holds the two best pieces of form winning the Foret against the boys and then being 3rd in the Queen Anne, as you say jack I Can Fly doesn’t look like reproducing her QE2 run anytime soon. I’m not sure about Qabala that English 1000 Guineas wasn’t the same Hermosa as the Irish 1000 Guineas and the form in behind is much of a muchness they were all in a heap. She obviously has time on her side and maybe we’ve seen the best of one or two of the others, I think Veracious has had plenty of chances now to show her potential and keeps running to the same sort of level which wouldn’t win a Group 1.
William Haggas was very vocal before the Lanwades Stud in the racing media that Beshaayir was the fitter of his two girls before that race and One Master also had a penalty, reading between the lines I think he thinks One Master is a fair bit classier than Beshaayir but there’s a nagging doubt that One Master doesn’t stay a mile well enough and is better over 7F, she came with a huge run in the Queen Anne and seemed to bottle it a bit close home, perhaps that’s a touch harsh but she hasn’t won over a mile yet in 4 attempts so there is some substance.
You could see Frankie getting a soft lead on Beshayyir and that would be the concern here, plenty of the others like to be played late but might not get the pace they are hoping for to aim at. Trappy affair, probably one to watch for me rather than bet in.
This Visinari situation reminds me a bit of Natalie’s Joy last year before the Chesham where she was a ‘certainty’ according to the time fanatics off the back of her wide margin, quick time Goodwood maiden win. She duly went off 5/4F for the Chesham and was well held in 7th. The race Visinari won looked like it fell to pieces in behind and I doubt Ottoman Court is one of Godolpin’s better 2 year olds if they felt the need to reach for cheekpieces on his 2nd start. There’s every chance Visinari is a freak and he simply broke that field with his quality on debut but he needs to be to justify that price. I can’t be having those sort of prices about once raced 2 year olds, particularly ones trained by Mark Johnston with all due respect. Visinari had the benefit of Ryan Moore getting him to the rail and he duly made all. We know he handles the ground and the track which are two big ticks in fairness to him but I’ll be taking 7/2 widely available about a horse in Guildsman who was also a wide margin winner on debut and backed it up with a sound run in the Coventry where the front 3 all look very useful sorts to my eye.
I have a shortlist of 7 from those still left so it’ll be a wait and see what turns up and the prices… the weather looks like it could turn from Wednesday as well so there is that to factor in.
Collide for Hugo Palmer is probably top of my list at this stage ran very well in two of the hottest handicaps this season at York and Royal Ascot off this kind of mark and he’s looked like he’s well worth stepping up in trip on both those runs as well.
Given Ben Vrackie’s due to go up 4lbs for future handicaps I’d be very surprised if they didn’t run him off 104 rather than try and beat the likes of Masar or Mirage Dancer off level weights in the Group 2.
Goodwood is certainly more of a speed test than Ascot or the Curragh. There’s no doubting Space Blues and Fox Champion aren’t Group 1 horses and that today was a Group 1 in name only, saying that he’s not exactly scraped home, he’s thrashed them in the style of a horse at least a grade above them and they are probably up to winning a Group 3 in UK at some stage (I know Fox Champion’s won a German G2 already). We don’t really know what the crack is with Magna Grecia/Phoenix Of Spain in terms of how strong the 2000 Guineas’ were, we do know the older milers are all about as good as each other and historically they’d be pretty ordinary, bordering on Group 2 horses that are winning the Group 1’s. Saying all that Too Darn Hot had every chance in a pretty poor St James Palace, as bad as last years for me, where they didn’t go a break neck gallop and he was in a much better position than his stablemate who has flown home. He was a bit keen but he was like that a lot at 2 so I don’t think stamina is the problem. They can’t seriously be telling us he won over a mile at 2 but he barely stays it as an older horse. I just get the feeling his sort of 115 rating he now has before his win today might be as good as he is at 3 regardless of the trip. Ironically that’s only 1lb below King Of Comedy who has a lot more scope having only run in the single Group 1.
I’d expect it’ll be similar to how they rated the Prince Of Wales Stakes also over 10F – Crystal Ocean’s 127 performance minus 3lbs for her filly allowance, possibly another pound off given Crystal Ocean actually beat Magical by half a length further, comes to 123. Racing Post Ratings have Enable running to the same mark on their scale as she did in America (124). They gave Crystal Ocean 128 for Ascot so it all links in nicely. She was given 125 officially as her highest last year but I’m not sure which race that was for it might have been for more than one of them, either way she’s probably run very close to that level first time up which is some doing on Mr Gosden’s part. For anyone interested she was rated 128 at the end of her 3 year old season. I think she’d have been much closer to 100% fit than they let on but that’s just a hunch. What I do know is the Eclipse is still a prestigious race to get on the CV, particularly for a filly given the history of the race which was well documented in the media in the buildup.
Ratings aside watching the race back today Ballydoyle probably had a clear plan to get Magical behind/in close to Hunting Horn and probably try and make use of her fitness edge. Trouble was and the beauty of Enable is she travels so comfortably at pace behind the leaders and she was always going that yard quicker than Magical from the get go, a lack of fitness late on was the only thing that would get Magical past her but she never really looked like she’d be headed to me, but then to me Magical never looked like catching/heading Crystal Ocean either, make of that what you will. I think Sea Of Class was very unlucky in the Arc, the first to genuinely look like beating Enable and today’s news about her colic is desperately sad. All the best to connections, hopefully she pulls through.
Incidentally Regal Reality has run quite the race considering his pre-race antics and he also lost his right fore shoe.
It’s a fair point regarding Sea The Stars Nathan although he didn’t win his Derby quite like Enable won her Oaks or Irish Oaks and in her pomp 3 year old days she was making very good horses like Ulysses look very ordinary. She wasn’t quite at that level last year for me and it could be as FinalFurlong91 alludes to she was never quite fit… makes her very extraordinary to still win 2 Group 1’s if that is the case. It’s far too early to write off Sea Of Class and to a lesser extent Masar too, he could have been the top notch 12F 3 year old colt we’ve been missing, we may never know. If you think back to last years big Group 1 winning boys – mentioned Masar, Juddmonte winner Roaring Lion (didn’t stay 12F), she didn’t face Poets Word who won the King George… she probably would have beaten him in fairness but he was technically the best 12F male, she did dodge a few bullets and she didn’t have to face Cracksman either who on a going day would have given her a good race, probably only at Ascot. I don’t think Crystal Ocean’s all that for what it’s worth but like Enable he is tactically quite an easy ride in that if the pace is slack or its a messy race he can race close to it and kick early (I don’t think he’s can accelerate as quickly as Enable so he must kick early), equally we know he’s a very good stayer if it’s a test of stamina. Sea Of Class will always have that downside tactically as long as they persist with holding her up. I’m hoping we get a top notch 3 year old and it could be a cracking end to the season. Well done Enable on today
I hate to have to do this but I am a pessimist at heart unfortunately. It was great to see her back today. Crystal Ocean had to give her 8lbs in that race at Kempton where he’d only normally be giving away 3lbs but yes he was well beaten and it was her debut. It was a bit of a farce of a race though with 4 runners and David Probert letting Enable do her own thing out in front while he was on a horse who was 2nd in a St Leger. You wouldn’t have been seeing either at their best in all probability. I think he’s her big danger – they’ve essentially achieved the very same thing today beating Magical and the pacemaker pretty much the same distance albeit on very different ground. Obviously Enable’s done it first time out which has to be factored in but for people to say nothing will get near her…. bar that win over Crystal Ocean she’s won by a short neck in last years Arc, and the same distance over Magical in America that she achieved today. She hasn’t won by a distance you could consider not getting near her since her 3 year old days.
Just to add the key has been a lack of high standard 3 year olds coming through over the middle distances to challenge her superiority with the obvious exception of Sea Of Class who nearly did it. The jury looks out regarding the strength of this years crop but if there is a top class one out there she will have to give a lot of weight away in the Arc etc. as she did last year.
4/1 available on Magical with Bet365. I didn’t think there was anything wrong with her run behind Crystal Ocean personally and if she’s come out of that okay I’m not sure how anyone can be over 50% confident in Enable on very fast ground over 10F on her first start of the season. Regal Reality’s price is bonkers he’s won a Group 3 against Matterhorn albeit very impressively and the price differential to Group 1 winners in Zabeel Prince and Mustashry and a Group 2 winner in Telecaster makes no sense.
Admirality is very much on my mind for this one. Represents the same connections as Burnt Sugar, travelled like a really good horse at York last time in a solid 0-105 handicap, just nabbed close up by Firmament. Has only had the three runs so far for Roger Fell since moving from Johnny Murtagh. He won on debut at Thirsk off 90 and I thought he looked there like he had plenty up his sleeve, he’s only 4lbs higher here if he gets in (45 on list). The thing I like most of all is he races up near the pace which I think is key if they get fast ground on either of the Newmarket courses. He does seem to need Good/Good-Firm ground to be seen to best effect. 91 was enough to get in last year so I’d be hopeful enough drop out but if not he’ll be high on my list for the Silver version.
Edit – confirmed target according to Middleham Park Racing on their website – “We began the week with seven entries at the Royal Meeting, however as well as LEROY LEROY being pulled out of the King George V due to the soft ground, two were balloted out of their planned races: ADMIRALITY (Roger Fell) from the Wokingham Stakes – he will now head to the Bunbury Cup and WAARIF (David O’Meara) didn’t get into the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes, but instead ran at Ayr yesterday in the Class 2 and took a great 2nd place. He will probably now head to the John Smith’s Cup at York.”
What can I say VTC he’s run a cracker after such an absence and I’ve no complaints with Morris’ ride he’s held onto him as long as possible considering he can be a bit whip happy too early on for my liking, travelled like a dream and just be nabbed late on by one who to be fair deserved to win one of these always being there or thereabouts in a few big ones. One of those days I backed Growl in the big sprint handicap at York at big odds too and thought he was coming to win his race. Main thing is it was a good race to watch and just about breaking even with the place part, Stratum ran a shocker from a similar position throughout
Congrats Cosmelli backers he’s ran another massive race at Newcastle at a huge price.I doubt they’d have given Sovereign such a big lead if Norway hadn’t gone with him they probably expected them both to cut each others throats and fall back, Norway did but to his credit Sovereign has kept on galloping. Its obviously one for the sectionalistas to get their teeth into, I’m sure all will be revealed in due course.
What we do know on breeding is he should be a strong stayer being a full brother to Cliffs Of Doneen now with Ralph Beckett and Triplicate for Joseph O’Brien. Even though he’s won a maiden on heavy that may have just helped bring the stamina into play it was only over a mile and it might turn out he has improved for the better ground and 12F as some Galileo’s do, you keep hearing Aidan banging on about this kind of thing in his interviews when these Galileo’s particularly show marked improvement, he’s possibly not handled Epsom. Broome got a bit of stick for his run in the Derrinstown vs the Ballysax because of his proximity to Sovereign, beating him 8 lengths in one but only 3 lengths the other but it’s plausible he’s run a similar race in the two and Sovereign’s improved 5 lengths between the two runs (around 9lbs over 10F) because he’s gone from racing on soft to racing on good-yielding and he’s improving with his racing.
That’s the positive angle. Don’t forget Wings Of Eagles wasn’t far off in the Irish Derby after he ‘fluked’ the Epsom one and that was including a career ending injury in the process.
The negative scenario as discussed by many is that AVD is only worried about Madhmoon once Broome’s fluffed his lines at the start. They’ve both ignored this strong staying pacemaker thinking they’ll reel him in and they’ve massively underestimated and maybe slightly disrespected him. Baring in mind Wings Of Eagles wasn’t a fluke in the end I can only compare this in recent times to Arabian Queen beating Golden Horn. Unfathomable to this day, she never won a race again against her own sex let alone against the boys.
FWIW I’m now starting to think Japan would have hosed up at Epsom with a better prep and he would have been doubling up here today.
I’ve gone back through the race because I wasn’t entirely happy with Luke Morris on board Dubawi Fifty he’s not my cup of tea as a jockey for all he does well on all weather tracks.
I couldn’t make out a clear favourite but I certainly couldn’t be having Gibbs Hill off what can only be stable vibes/gossip on the back of nearly 2 years off, he’s 11lbs higher than his last run and for all I expect him to improve for the step up in trip being a son of Mastercraftsman who tend to stay well, it’s not a given which you’d expect at his odds.
Withhold’s absence wouldn’t concern me because he won this last year off a similar break, what would worry me would be the fact he bled in Australia and the fact Tony Bloom sends Stratum here as well which to the best of my memory he doesn’t tend to run two in a big handicap.
Stratum arguably could/should be fav if you think how easily he won the JLT Cup at Newbury last year off 6lbs lower from a very solid yardstick in 3rd to most of these horses form in Couer De Lion and then went off fav and got butchered in the run in of the Ebor off this mark when making progress. I don’t think he’d have beaten Muntahaa that day but he’d have gone close. He’s come back to form over hurdles and is nice and fit. Going purely on sire Dansili has produced plenty of all weather winners including Mootasadir who lines up in this. He’s plenty going for him at what is probably a fair enough price.
Kings Advice just keeps on winning but at Goodwood last time he looked to me all out at the line like 1M 6F was the limit of his stamina and/or the handicapper is finally getting him. Either way What A Welcome who was 2nd was well held in the race won last time by Red Galileo.
Incidentally Red Galileo’s 5lb penalty is cleverly negated by Thomas Greatrex’s claim which he gets for a reason but he does ride Newcastle well given his lack of experience albeit with limited evidence (2 wins from 6 rides – only managed 21 wins total so far in his career). I can’t see Speedo Boy reversing that form from last time out personally but Red Galileo’s strike rate generally is of concern given he’s now a 109 horse.
Bartholomeu Dias is very interesting…. we know he likes the track and his form last time out has worked out very well with Royal Ascot winner Baghdad in 3rd behind him. He’s clearly been left aside for this which I like. He’s always been a big rangy horse, a bit coltish and looks to finally be fulfilling some of his potential but he can be a bit free and it’s not a given the step-up in trip will work out, particularly as there are plenty here who like to race prominently which he has been doing lately. With hindsight he did well to get as close to a race fit Kings Advice at Wolverhampton back in April conceding 8lbs but as I say doubts about the trip.
I though Jim Crowley got Time To Study to the front too soon in the Ascot Stakes but looking back through his form he maybe doesn’t quite stay 2 and 1/2 miles, this should be more suitable off the same mark. Question is does it come too soon after what was a tough race on one of the wetter days at Ascot. That’s two tough races in a row because he also ran in the mud at Chester. He’s thrown in on his old form for what it’s worth 8lbs lower than 6th in this very race last year.
There are plenty of other solid horses who I can see going well but not winning at bigger odds and I’m sure there’s a big race in Proschema somewhere down the line if his mark keeps dropping but this wouldn’t be it for me given Kingscote isn’t on board.
I’ll be sticking with Dubawi Fifty at an each-way price for reasons mentioned previous. I’d have preferred De Sousa to be riding but can understand his loyalty to Austrian School for all he isn’t contractually obliged either way.
I’ll be saving with Stratum who I think VTC has hit the nail on the head with and can see him going off close to fav. Best of luck to the rest of you
Dubawi Fifty immediately jumped off the page to me not been seen since game effort from the front in last years Ascot Stakes finishing 2nd which followed his 4th in Chester Cup. It must have been very tempting for them to target him at a repeat there but he’s been kept fresh for a crack at this last I read (local yard to the track) and he’s got course and distance winning form. I don’t tend to bet antepost but I’ll be rowing in if he gets declared, preferably with Joe Fanning booked if he’s back fit and a decent draw.
I suspect Defoe won’t get the credit he deserves again here because of his proximity to the beaten horses in an average enough Group 2. The bare form doesn’t tell the story, contrast to the Coronation Cup as GingerTipster correctly pointed out the pace of that race with Communique and Salouen cutting each others throats set it up for him, today Communique left Salouen to make the running at a steady/slow pace and it got messy, I thought he was in big trouble coming round the turn into the home straight but Defoe’s really quickened up nicely from a much less favourable position than Mirage Dancer was in and gone well away from him. I’d like to think he’s idling a bit in front thinking he’s done enough and would have gone again had Nagano Gold got to him earlier but I can’t be sure of that. What I can be sure of is he’s won a Group 1 and Group 2 now on ground which before this season connections would have said was too fast for him and there’s no doubting he’s a player at the top table over 12F, particularly on ground the soft side of good or worse which others don’t handle so well. Fair play to Varian and the team who seem to be developing a Stoute-esque knack for improving them with age, Zabeel Prince being another to break his Group 1 duck in his advancing years.
Congrats Cosmelli backers he’s ran another massive race at Newcastle at a huge price.