Home › Forums › Big Races – Discussion › Falmouth Stakes
- This topic has 15 replies, 7 voices, and was last updated 6 years, 9 months ago by
Triptych.
- AuthorPosts
- July 9, 2019 at 11:59 #1448050
Qabala 5/1
Whisper it but Ladbrokes have this all wrong. Take into account Weight for age and she’s top rated, is coming back to where she was impressive in the Nell Gwynn & arguably should have been second in the Guineas. Quick ground should be perfect and Atzeni is jocked up. I’d have her around a 3/1 shout.
July 9, 2019 at 12:46 #1448054Thought it was a very hard race to weight up.
Haggas likely to use Beshaayir to set the pace like last time, but you’d hope she won’t stay there like at the Curragh where maybe the big two had fitness questions and there probably was a frontrunners bias.
She’s likely to get an easy enough lead again i suspect and the remainder seem to like to be held up.
On Qabala Kev, not only does she need to bounce back, it’s perhaps possible to question the strength of the 1000G form?
One Master holds single best piece of recent form, as I Can Fly doesn’t look to be reproducing the run behind below par Roaring Lion anytime soon.
Then there’s the likes of Happen, who i backed in the Coronation (worked out awful for me haha) but given the way the race will be run, i couldn’t rule her out improving again!
Hard one!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!July 9, 2019 at 13:51 #14480631000G form in behind Hermosa isn’t great but Qabala should have been much closer to her. Nell Gwynn run was every inch a Group 1 filly to me (Form is poor but she was much better than the bare) and i’m holding my hat on her bouncing back.
Like that she has Newmarket form also, One Master doesn’t have that and i don’t trust the QA form either.It’s a poor Group 1 and she’s the overpriced one who i think is still unexposed.
July 9, 2019 at 14:08 #1448065Agreed Kev,
We have both kept the faith since her NG win and Paddy Power seem to have it right with QABALA at 5/2 and agreed this is her chance to run as we know she can without fear of getting boxed in.
I have, however, taken the 5’s kindly offered by Ladbrokes.
Her stable companion Mot Juste cannot be ruled out at 16/1 and I have her in a reverse forecast with Qabala for a Roger Varian 1-2. Think he has some especially talented young fillys running this Festival.
Yet to have a really good look through the three days but Masar looks a banker on the first day providing he exits the stalls in a more dignified manner this time.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...July 9, 2019 at 14:23 #1448067Where is Laurens? Have I missed something?
Value Is EverythingJuly 9, 2019 at 14:33 #1448069Had a niggle GT. John Dance tweeted it. Having an easy week then planning from there.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!July 9, 2019 at 15:07 #1448071Thanks, Jack.
Hopefully should be back then.Value Is EverythingJuly 9, 2019 at 22:29 #1448099Agree 100% with you Kev. Taken some of that 5/1 with Ladbrokes. 11/2 with the boost.
Qabala @ 5/1
July 10, 2019 at 06:37 #1448117One Master probably holds the two best pieces of form winning the Foret against the boys and then being 3rd in the Queen Anne, as you say jack I Can Fly doesn’t look like reproducing her QE2 run anytime soon. I’m not sure about Qabala that English 1000 Guineas wasn’t the same Hermosa as the Irish 1000 Guineas and the form in behind is much of a muchness they were all in a heap. She obviously has time on her side and maybe we’ve seen the best of one or two of the others, I think Veracious has had plenty of chances now to show her potential and keeps running to the same sort of level which wouldn’t win a Group 1.
William Haggas was very vocal before the Lanwades Stud in the racing media that Beshaayir was the fitter of his two girls before that race and One Master also had a penalty, reading between the lines I think he thinks One Master is a fair bit classier than Beshaayir but there’s a nagging doubt that One Master doesn’t stay a mile well enough and is better over 7F, she came with a huge run in the Queen Anne and seemed to bottle it a bit close home, perhaps that’s a touch harsh but she hasn’t won over a mile yet in 4 attempts so there is some substance.
You could see Frankie getting a soft lead on Beshayyir and that would be the concern here, plenty of the others like to be played late but might not get the pace they are hoping for to aim at. Trappy affair, probably one to watch for me rather than bet in.
July 10, 2019 at 10:31 #1448132Hermosa had the big advantage of the front running bias Irish Guineas weekend Shirley?
Qabala reportedly scoped abnormally post Irish guineas also to make people aware.
July 10, 2019 at 15:52 #1448165Happen is a non runner so now only 6 go to post. Lets hope no more drop out.
Qabala has her best chance to gain her first Group 1 victory,
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...July 10, 2019 at 17:02 #1448172Keep saying never again with I can fly
This is definitely the last time I will back her
But I said that her last 3 runs
July 12, 2019 at 08:24 #1448309Same for me but with QABALA Kev.
Just getting ready to go to Newmarket and cheer her home’ but if she can’t do it today with such a small field then I have to move on…But must have confidece that she’ll do it…with Mot Juste the stable outsider to run a big race EW and forecast.
Qabala WIN
Mot Juste EW
Best of luck some talented fillies in this small line up.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...July 12, 2019 at 15:31 #1448336TheTinMan makes a good point about pace. Am convinced both One Master and Qbala are quite a bit better fillies than Beshaayir; but the latter might get a soft lead here. Want to be against I Can Fly. Best efforts so far are at Ascot, inconsistent elsewhere and very best runs on softer ground. Veracious doesn’t win often enough and Mot Juste needs to improve quite a lot.
I’ve backed Qbala with little more than a saver on One Master; half a saver on Beshaayir.
Value Is EverythingJuly 12, 2019 at 15:45 #1448340They’re giving prominent runners the races today with that tail wind. LOL
Value Is EverythingJuly 12, 2019 at 23:27 #1448386Good day for Frankel as Veracious scores at last but quite honestly a weak race with nothing standing out in the paddock.
Qabala had all the chances I can throw at her now and both herself and Mot Juste looked in need of the race’ in the pre parade, after long lay offs they both couldn’t handle the uphill finish..Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out... - AuthorPosts
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.