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I just had a first look at this one, wow what a race this is! Visinari should improve for the step up to 7F apparently, not that convinced after his last run myself. Pinatubo slammed Lope Y Fernandez at Ascot, however, always got to be careful of AOB improvers, but not sure I can see why he would turn the tables here and make up 3.5L. Mystery Power brings unbeaten form in, but has a penalty to overcome and not sure he’s that good that he can win carrying 3lbs more. Platinum Star is 1 from 4 now, but Positive is interesting as Clive Cox said they would probably step him up to conditions or listed company and they’ve thrown him in here, so maybe a saver, but what franks the selection below for me is that Pinatubo’s sire Shamardal also won the Vintage Stakes. I think the price is very attractive!
Pinatubo 15/8
Looks a cracking race
Very much a watching brief for me I think
One to watch and take notes looking forward to next year
One of the races of the week
Can anyone explain the 10/1 about Platinum Star? Close form with Pinatubo (7/4), was better than Visinari (7/2) LTO and shapes as if this step up in trip will suit, especially so on breeding.
I’d imagine Platinum Star already having run four times compared to Visinari only have run twice might have something to do with it, on paper Visinari has the greater scope for improvement and there was only a head between them at Newmarket. The other thing with Platinum Star is relative to the favourite Pinatubo, he’s had already been resoundingly beaten albeit at Wolverhampton both were making their debuts, on jockey bookings and the owners colours they raced in even on that debut run it was clear who was Godolphin’s first string. I wouldn’t rule out anything bar Milltown Star here though looks a cracking race.
Cannot believe that PLATINUM STAR is priced up at 11/1 with Paddy Power for tomorrows Vintage Stakes, he’s a definite place horse and even though this will be his 5th run he is improving and moving up in class with every run and he goes on any ground, Goodwood looks just the track to suit his running style and his sire Lope De Vega can turn out decent colts and fillies to win Stakes races such as this .
Well beaten by Pinatubo at Wolverhampton (Standard) both running their maiden Class 4, he ran a gallant race from way back off the pace to get up to be 2nd.
Next time out on Good Ground he won nicely by 2 lengths from Zim Baby and 3 weeks later he turned out on Soft ground Class 1 Listed race to run a gallant 2nd to Gleneagles bred Southern Hills over 5 furlongs and then onwards and upwards into Group 2 company where he came up against Visinari (turning out with a big reputation) and another Gleneagles bred Royal Lytham…..
Visinari had the race in his grasp coming up the steep July Course 6f finish but didn’t account for the fast finishing Royal Lytham who won the race by a short head from the equally fast finishing and eyecatching Platinum Star (winner just past the post) who based on that run will relish the extra furlong much better than Visinari who weakened at a crucial stage in the race.PINATUBO will take all the beating but would not be at all surprised if Platinum Star has improved leaps and bounds since their last meeting and turns the tables.
Visinari could improve but nothing from his eyecatching maiden win at Newmarket (July course) has gone on to win or progress up in class, however he ran a fine race when back on the July Course in a Group 2 just being headed close to the line by Royal Lytham and Platinum Star, but for me the jury’s out on whether the extra furlong will suit.
Platinum Star
EW 11/1Reverse Forecast
Pinatubo
Platinum StarLooking forward to this race.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Visinari could improve but nothing from his eyecatching maiden win at Newmarket (July course) has gone on to win or progress up in class,
Christ; you’re a difficult woman to please, Jac. LOL
One horse Visinari beat in the novice has won since, but even the ones that have been beaten were a hell of a lot further behind Visinari than in subsequent races.1st Visinaria by 3 1/2 lengths from Ottoman Court.
3.5
2nd Ottoman Court has not run since and everything else weren’t just beaten, they were beaten 13 1/2 lengths and more! What do you expect them to do in subsequent races? You surely don’t expect them to win in higher grades?
But if you want to take form literally, let’s see how form worked out:
10
3rd Clareyblue was beaten a total of 13 1/2 lengths – Clareyblue then finished 2nd in a York novice on his only subsequent start. Beaten just 1 1/2 by Al Aakif. Al Aarkif has run since York, beaten only 2 1/2 lengths in the Listed Rose Bowl at Newbury. (13.5 – 1.5 = 12) If Visinari is 12 lengths better than Al Aarkif then on form (12 – 2.5 = 9.5) Visinari would’ve won that Listed race by 9 1/2 lengths.
Hd
4th Daily Times a filly receiving 5 lbs from Visinari and beaten a total of 13 3/4 lengths. Adding the weight to distance, Visinari comes out around a 15.5 lengths better racehorse than Daily Times. Daily Times then got beat just a neck by Wren in a fillies (level weights) novice at Kempton. On that form Visinari comes out a 15.25 lengths better horse than Wren. Daily Times then beaten just 3/4 length in a Newmarket maiden by Miss Lucy. So on that form Visinari comes out a 14.75 lengths better racehorse than Miss Lucy.
1.25
5th Will To Win was beaten a total of 15 lengths by Visinari. Has run once since and won a Lingfield novice by 2 3/4 lengths from Harlequin. Harlequin is yet to race again, but another half length away third was Indian Creak – who’s won an Epsom Maiden by 3 lengths since.Inexperience counted against Visinari in the Group 2 July Stakes, should never have been 4/6 but still ran well. Stall 1 could be good if well away or bad with a slow break. Pinatubo is rightfully favourite, but Visinari is rightfully second favourite given only had two runs. Time of his debut exceptional for a debutant that early in the season and hopefully can fulfil potential.
Value Is EverythingI’m really not that hard to please Ginge I just like a challenge
You’ve obviously taken a lot of time to work through and analyse my thoughts on Visinari and those horses that ran against him that have not progressed and I see from your calculations, that in theory, there is a lot of reason to be hopeful that he will run a big race tomorrow. However, like myself, horses aren’t that good at maths and working out winning margins so what I did to illustrate why I like Platinum Star and Pinatubo so much was take a quick glance down the form of horses beaten by Visinari and make a mental note that none of them are really moving up the Class ladder and I wasn’t including Visinari in that analogy just the horses that ran against him. Even Will To Win had to drop back to Class 5 to win and Indian Creak who was 3rd to him won at Class 4 level.
Visinari himself was taken from that eyecatching Class 4 win to run at Group 2 level where his inexperience told but he learnt an awful lot and I really like the horse and I agree he deserves to be second favourite especially with Frankie back on board who will know exactly how to ride him tomorrow, so best of luck to anyone who backs him and it’s going to be one of those races that we will learn a lot from. But the Value must surely be Platinum Star EW now trading at 12/1 with every chance of ending up in the first 3 (edit: first 2) on his previous runs.
JacEnjoy the race and good luck to all having a bet in this.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Problem is there are only 7 runners which kills the e/w angle
Another reason this race will be a watching brief for me
Visinari put up an enormous performance on debut, is it possible he bounced second time out?
We see it regularly when horses put up huge performances and just cant back it up next time
Be very interesting to see whether he can run to that level again
this is the race of the week for me
Kings Command in the Superlative disappointed next time out, although he did get hampered and was eased so expecting better next time he runs.
Agreed on the 7 runner angle FF, I was under the impression there were more runners than that
Anyway the Pinatubo/Platinum Star Rev. Forecast might pay a reasonable divi, especially if it comes in the other way round. JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...none of them are really moving up the Class ladder
They were beaten out of sight, Jac.
Those Visinari beat have improved and most of them by quite a bit since.
How the xxxx can any horse being beaten 13 or 15+ lengths in one grade be expected to go up in class?
Those Visinari beat do not need to move up in class for Visinari to have put up an exceptional performance for a debutant, because the time allied to the distance they were beaten was the key. ie Plenty of room in those 13 1/2 lengths from winner to third to fit in plenty of good horses that did not take part.When Frankel won the Queen Anne Stakes second horse Excellebration was below his best and the others were in ability far from exceptional for a Group 1 race. Third Side Glance, fourth Indomito, fifth Windsor Palace etc. However, it was the time performance allied to the fact those unexceptional horses were beaten so far that made Frankel’s form performance exceptional. Visinari is no Frankel, but as debuts go it was an exceptional performance, not because of the quality of horse he beat but by how far.
Value Is EverythingGinge..This is just my own way of picking out horses that I like I’m not preaching to anyone just giving my own personal view on this race on a Forum where we are all entitled to an opinion.
Everyone is entitled to their own slant on a race and I have had some luck choosing my horses this way, I enjoy taking a chance that Formbooks and pundits like yourself will get it wrong
Why can’t you just wish someone good luck with their chosen horse instead of trying to over analyse everything anyone says.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Quite happy to keep it simple with the 15/8 on Pinatubo available yesterday.
Have to remain loyal to him after he done me a great turn at Epsom and to a lesser extent Ascot.
I think he’s the best 2 year old we’ve so far.
Pinatubo @ 15/8
What a great renewal this is. Sitting on the fence and watching, but FWIW I think that both Platinum Star and Lope y Fernandez will be closer to Pinatubo this time.
Same Nefertiti, great race, couldn’t get involved though. Do think i agree with the sentiments that Platinum Star is overpriced. For all he’s had 4 runs compared to others, he’s stepping up in trip unlike the main protaganists, bar Visinari. So i’d say there’s scope there.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!What a race – Penisturbo, Visinari and many more!
No bets for me but potentially one of the highlights of the week – I’m almost looking forward to the post-race sectionalista v caveman digs as much as the race itself!
Hope Willo is on Racing TV duty this afternoon.
But if you want to take form literally, let’s see how form worked out:
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