John Smiths Cup 2019

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This topic contains 15 replies, has 6 voices, and was last updated by raymo61 raymo61 1 week, 3 days ago.

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  • #1444879
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    Thankfully no market for this, so I can keep the money in pocket……for now.

    https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/107/york/2019-07-13/730524

    Dolphin Vista – No surprise that I start off with him. A serious horse, who looks more than capable of winning off of a mark like this, and if he did line up, then he’d surely be bang there. Maybe not one for piling in on Antepost, as he’s got an entry at The Curragh at the end of the month, and he’s very ground dependent, but still, he’s obvious shortlist material.

    Aasheq – Really growing on me this one. Very impressive at the tail end of last season at the track, without getting his head in front, and he’s looked very solid this campaign. Maybe not the most obvious, but very much on my radar.

    Beatboxer – Lots to like about how he did it at Haydock a fortnight ago, and looks one to be at the head of the market, once it opens. Obvious player.

    Chatez – Very inconsistent type, but on his day, more than capable of landing a blow here. Ground could be crucial, but on his Newbury run, he’s of interest.

    Protected Guest – I really liked him for The Hunt Cup, but he might just struggle to make. I can see him still going to Ascot though, and he’s a real “wait and see” job, as he’s also touch and go to get in. There’s definitely a big race in him though.

    Scarlet Dragon – He really caught the eye on his final run over hurdles at Sandown, and he’s got plenty going for him here. He’s got a few decent runs to his name in these type of prizes, and has course and distance form. I think he’s very interesting here.

    Stylehunter – Talking of The Hunt Cup, I’m really keen on this guy for that race. We’ll know a lot more after today, but he looks very interesting here, for all that I’d favour Ascot.

    What’s The Story – Very impressive winner here a fortnight ago, and whether it’s here or Ascot, another big run looks likely, and he’s finally going the right way.

    Just a quick look, as there’s plenty of time for things to change, and there’s no distraction from a betting point of view right now, but those were the immediate ones to jump out. Loads of time to change the mind.

    #1446931
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    Market forming for this now…..

    https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/john-smiths-diamond-jubilee-cup-handicap/winner

    Stylehunter looks even more interesting for this now after The Hunt Cup, but at current price, it definitely looks worth waiting. I kind of hope he doesn’t head here, as he’s definitely well on my radar for The Cambridgeshire.

    Right now though, the more I look at Aasheq, the more I like him, and if he was this price at final Decs, I’d be having a go. Holding off for now though, but he’s very much the #1 for now.

    Aasheq 25’s

    #1448016
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    Very frustrating, as Aasheq has an entry earlier on the card. Not jocked up for either, so no option but to hold fire for now.

    Weather looks favourable for him as well, and the same could be said for Dolphin Vista, but I’ll wait and see if he gets jocked up.

    For all that Stylehunter should have won The Hunt Cup, I’m reluctantly holding off with him too, in The hope that The Cambridgeshire is the race for him. Must have a great chance in this though.

    Still no bet.

    #1448209
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    Finally bit the bullet and went for Aasheq.

    I really do like this one, and took the 25’s to five places. Just hope this is the plan, and the worst that happens is that he gets balloted out.

    #1448243

    TheTinMan87
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    He’s been declared I see VTC and I can see him going very well, his form ties in with Aquarium who’s also a huge price at 33’s in places. I haven’t properly had a look at the race yet just formed a provisional shortlist but the race got more interesting with Afaak and Setting Sail being drawn out in the car park, I know horses have done well from high draws in the past but it certainly makes it tricky to get a decent birth from being drawn that far out.

    #1448280
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    Thanks TTM, hope you’re right, and fairly happy with the draw.

    Aquarium is a big price as you say, and I’ve seen worse 33-1 shots.

    I’m undecided about having a backup here, and torn between Stylehunter and Scarlet Dragon.

    #1448293

    TheTinMan87
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    Interestingly Simon Rowlands has put Aasheq up in his Rowleyfile preview on Timeform highlighting the potential lack of pace in the race.

    #1448301
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    Thanks for the info TTM, fingers crossed he’s not far off with that assessment.

    #1448306

    TheTinMan87
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    I can’t see anything absolutely chucked in here bar possibly Setting Sail who’s not chucked in on what he’s achieved but I can still see being a Group horse before the end of the season. Stylehunter is probably the one on the fairest mark and could go the same way. He’d be my idea of favourite now. Everybody else I think the handicapper is close to having right or has done too much winning already – the likes of Mountain Angel etc..

    For all that the one who I keep coming back to is My Lord And Master for William Haggas. Fair bit of guess work involved as to how fit he’ll have him first time up but he ran a cracker over course and distance off 1lb higher last year under young Fallon and is better off at the weights with Aasheq and Aquarium for it. He was a big 3 year old and I’m hoping this ground won’t hinder him too much if it’s too lively but he’s been gelded in interim and he’s another who if he goes the right way could make up into a lower level Group horse in time. He could just have been trained with this race in mind all along.

    I’ve backed Aasheq as well (sorry to jinx it VTC :whistle:) I can definitely see the pace angle and the race was stolen from the front by Euchen Glen last year. I think he’s more been trained for this than Aquarium (if Johnston trains them with anything in mind) having been left since Chester whereas he’s normally run quite regularly being a hardy, consistent sort. The ground is ideal for him. He is slightly better off at the weights on his form this year with Aquarium and Aquarium also ran a shocker at Haydock LTO which I have to factor in. On balance I can’t see him winning off 103 so I’ve left him there having already backed 2.

    My Lord And Master EW 16/1
    Aasheq EW 25/1

    #1448396
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    Good luck TTM. It’ll make a nice change to see someone jinx my bets other than me.

    #1448414
    Middle_Of_March
    Middle_Of_March
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    Interesting shout with Aashek there VTC. I do think he will go very well.

    It’s Mountain Angel for me. I’m a huge fan of this horse and he did me a turn at Epsom on Oaks day but he’s always struck me as a group horse that’s taking time to come of age. I think he’s slowly but surely getting there now and plenty of quirks from last season have been ironed out of him. I think his run last time in the Wolverton was very good in what looked the best listed race I’ve seen for many a year.

    Mountain Angel @ 7/1 E/W (6 places)

    #1448433
    raymo61
    raymo61
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    Good luck with Aasheq Bobby :good:

    I am on two in this

    JAZEEL at 12/1 and EXEC CHIEF at 20/1. Jazeel has been running well all year and did it nice last time out and Exec Chief looked unlucky behind Jazeel last time out and could outrun his odds

    #1448469

    All Jeff
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    Stylehunter for the win 6-1, Exec Chief ew with 6 places at 16-1

    #1448516
    BigG
    BigG
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    I think Mountain Angel 7/1 could be better than a handicapper and I think
    he will need to be to win this carrying 9-10. He looked to be improving with his 2 wins at Ascot
    and didn’t have the best luck in running at Ascot. I had backed Aquarium in the 1st of those two
    Ascot runs, and there is a 7lb turn around in Aquarium’s favour here, but it’s hard to imagine
    that his lead up to this race is beneficial to his chances. I’ve abandoned him here, so just watch
    him dot up :wacko:

    I’ve taken My Lord And Master 14/1 as a back up for most the same reasons as
    TTM. He’s got a decent draw and a decent young jockey taking 5lbs off, so hopefully he’s ready for
    this.

    #1448521
    BigG
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    I’ve relented at the last minute and done Aqarium too at 25/1. I’d
    be kicking myself if he came good this time.

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