Bet365 Trophy 2019

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    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
    • Total Posts 16097

    Inaugural running…..

    Newmarket rewarded with a strong entry for this, and shaping up to be a cracker.

    No market so far, but can’t be too long before the sponsors and a few others price it up.

    Goes without saying that a fair chunk of them have other possible engagements, and loads of them have an entry for a The Northumberland Plate. With that in mind, just an early look…

    Austrian School – He’s high enough in the weights after his Musselburgh win, but I thought he had a few excuses last week at York. Maybe pushing it to think he’d be at the top of the pile for me right now, but I think he’s got potential.

    Barsanti – By no means a Handicap regular, and usually acquits himself well, regardless of company. He looks to be on a nice mark, and certainly of interest if they look to take advantage of it.

    Desert Skyline – Very much like Barsanti, he’s not a Handicap regular, and also comes here looking well treated. The trip won’t be an issue, and he really jumped off the page for this.

    Raheen House – Shaped very well on stable debut at York last weekend, and it looks as if he should have a prize like this within him. If being critical, you’d have to acknowledge his poor win ratio, but he’s got enough good runs to his name to give him serious consideration here. Also has Northumberland Plate as a possible target, but I just have a hunch that The Ebor might be his #1 target this year.

    Red Galileo – Course and Distance winner this month, and an impressive one at that. Hardly hammered for that win, and an obvious player.

    Rock Eagle – A horse I really took to last year, and his win here in the Autumn promised more to come. He’s only been seen once since then, running slightly flat at Goodwood, but overall, he looks one to keep onside, and this looks the perfect fit for him. Main drawback I can see at this stage is that he’s had plenty of entries so far this year, which he hasn’t taken up, so maybe risky Antepost, but he’s still very much on my radar.

    Royal Line – Something of a forgotten horse, but his win in The November Handicap was very impressive, suggesting maybe even a future away from handicaps. That certainly looks to be the case, given his entry for The Irish Leger, and given his entry for the Princess of Wales here, but wherever he goes, he looks the type to have a much higher profile come season end. Risky, given that other entry, but a very very interesting one at that.

    Speedo Boy – Trainer continues to dig out the big winners, and Speedo, who chased home Red Galileo here the other week, could easily add to his tally. That was a fine trial here, and though he’s not the most consistent, I’d be in no rush to write him off.

    Weekender – Top weight, but on his second in The Ebor, he’s not to be taken lightly. I find his run at Newbury last year a little off putting, but he’s another to get an Irish St Leger entry, and though a moderate enough affair, his win at Chelmsford last time was encouraging.

    Withold – Needs no introduction, but seen sparingly, and not at all since last October. One to fear wherever he turns up (if all well), but he’ll always carry a risk Antepost.

    The complexion of this could change dramatically, and difficult to gauge just how the big yards will treat it. It just seems a race where it will pay to be cautious, and maybe even one for Final Decs, but early shortlist would be….

    Desert Skyline
    Rock Eagle

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    Sponsors lead the way here, and have finally priced it up….

    Money staying in my pocket for now, definitely waiting to see other books.

    • Total Posts 487

    Caliburn looks a big price to me at 16-1. I liked him a lot at Newmarket last year, when he showed a very good attitude, and if I was having a bet here, he would be my choice.

    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
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    This isn’t getting any easier to read for me, and my main bets will come on the day, but I have stuck to my guns with the initial shortlist.

    Outbox and Weekender catch the eye, but two’s more than enough.

    Barsanti 16’s
    Desert Skyline 25’s EW

    • Total Posts 1997

    I find this race is virtually impossible to get a hang on. You have horses multi-entered and loads jocked up here, which i thought was pretty early? The fav is entered the day before too, but not jocked up here. That is a G2 and Gosden’s only entry in it so god knows! Outbox does look very interesting though. He’s jocked up, yet entered again at York on Saturday! Given it’s Crisford i’d hazard a guess he’ll rock up here.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

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    I’ve felt that way since the entries came out Jack, very tricky, but I’ll stick with my pair now. Multiple entries all over the place.

    • Total Posts 69

    I have a shortlist of 7 from those still left so it’ll be a wait and see what turns up and the prices… the weather looks like it could turn from Wednesday as well so there is that to factor in.

    Collide for Hugo Palmer is probably top of my list at this stage ran very well in two of the hottest handicaps this season at York and Royal Ascot off this kind of mark and he’s looked like he’s well worth stepping up in trip on both those runs as well.

    Given Ben Vrackie’s due to go up 4lbs for future handicaps I’d be very surprised if they didn’t run him off 104 rather than try and beat the likes of Masar or Mirage Dancer off level weights in the Group 2.

    • Total Posts 4554

    With all the fancy entries I thought I would look beyond the front few and think KINGS ADVICE is huge at 20/1. It came from the next parish to finish sixth at Newcastle last time out having won plenty before that and Joe Fanning is back too and that could be a clue in itself

    I know dangers abound with Gosden Crisford Balding and Appleby with entries but I feel that this is the value at the price

    • Total Posts 6037

    I agree with Raymo that Kings Advice might still be on the up. Six on the trot was impressive,
    and rise of 30lbs in 4 months might not be enough to stop him here. I haven’t backed him yet,
    and missed the nice 20s Raymo got, but I have backed Platitude at 40/1. He
    was a very decent sort as a 3 yr old with Stoute. Kind of lost his way after that but Amanda
    Perrett got a tune out of him 1st time out when transferred to her with a decent win over 1m 6f
    at Goodwood last May. Not really followed up but he’s now down to his lowest level for some time
    at 97. Had a wind op, and one run after a long break behind Kings Advice. He should be better 2nd
    time out having had the run under his belt, and he’s 6 lbs better off with KA for 4 1/2L. Hopefully
    he should now get the benefit of the wind op 2nd time out and I’m hopeful he could be competitive

    • Total Posts 69

    raymo61 Kings Advice was an my shortlist for the very reason you mentioned, I didn’t think he’d stay the Northumberland trip and they rode him like he wouldn’t stay and he flew home late on. Back down in trip I can see him being bang there. I hadn’t realised Hugo Palmer’s in such rotten form, hasn’t sent a winner out in over 2 weeks and that’s put me off Collide at the last minute, I think he could do with more rain than they’ll get if they get any. Back to the drawing board for me. Tricky puzzle :wacko:

    I’m sticking to my guns the York run in particular is very strong form, Corgi and Fujaira Prince both ran well in the Duke Of Edinburgh and Caliburn was just behind and won next time up (Caliburn’s 5lbs higher now) and there’s been bits of good form right through the field.

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    Of my pair, only Desert Skyline makes the line up.

    Plan was to have a good go on the pair of them if declared, but even with just the one going, I’m now more inclined to hold back a bit, as still finding it difficult to get a handle on this one.

    Only a small bet on him so far, so I’ll certainly top up on him to the 25’s five places, but certainly not as much as I’d planned to.

    I’ll stick with just the one in this now definitely.

    • Total Posts 1102

    Outbox 9/1

    Mark of 102 looks generous to me, Elegiac he beat last year has won a Listed race since and he was just touched off in a Listed race FTO to Funny Kid, who is a nice french stayer.

    Ben Vrackie is an obvious danger but he’ll need to be closer up than he was at Ascot to win this you’d think.

    • Total Posts 355

    It’s quite a race and deserves to be for the money on offer. It’s a while since I visited the forum as I’m usually elsewhere and/or corresponding with close family/friends by email. Maybe I’ll get round to working out how to copy my table of ratings as I have them but this is the summary I came up with. The horses mentioned are in order of my overall ratings in the table.

    Once again, the £1m prize on offer for the Ebor has to be a factor in looking at this race which had its inaugural running last season. I’ve been mentioning it regularly this season and I noticed the TV people were factoring it into the debate ahead of the Old Newton Cup last weekend. Alan King won the Northumberland Plate with Who Dares Wins (Marquand) and could have put Top Tug away for the Ebor. Hughie Morrison is definitely a target trainer too but Not So Sleepy might need give. I went positive with the Northumberland Plate form and it suggests King’s Advice, despite finishing sixth, improved again so he must come into the reckoning. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Perrett has laid out Platitude for the Ebor too but he’ll need to win this to get up the weights. As I said before, I think it will probably take a rating of at least 100 to make the cut so anything on that mark or higher can’t really afford a penalty but the weights aren’t out yet and a bunch finish here might see the winner of this going up by only 3lbs or so. However, the weights aren’t out yet and entries 37 and 38 in order of ORs are rated 100, and that’s excluding the Irish entries. I’ve just checked and it turns out the lowest rating in last year’s Ebor was 102 so with double the money on offer it will almost certainly go up although there will be two more places available. Ben Vrackie should have won the Duke of Edinburgh and is a LOT better than the bare result. He’s also 4lbs well in here so can afford to win narrowly and not go up. There also has to be a fair chance that Gosden has something else put away for it, such as Royal Line. Secret Advisor is currently off 101 so has gone down in the handicap since the weights for this came out and will need to go up again but Sheikh Mo owns Royal Line anyway and Godolphin will have the likes of Bin Battuta and Red Galileo in it. Ben Vrackie is the percentage call here but he’s a pretty short favourite. I’ll go for King’s Advice instead. I’ll have something on Manjaam at long odds. He has nothing to lose here for such a big prize and is weighted to win on his best form. Platitude is also worth a pop at long odds.

    • Total Posts 6037

    Quite happy that Platitude made it here, and I still think the 40s I took with PP 5 places
    is a decent bet. I mentioned Kings Advice above and that I hadn’t backed him
    at that point. I dithered a bit but took 12s eventually (well done Raymo with the 20s), I think
    he has a real shout here.

    • Total Posts 44

    Well done all backers. What a gutsy determined horse Kings Advice is.

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