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I’m all over Visinari here and have also had a bit of the 50/1 on him for next years 2000 Guineas.
I think his performance on debut on the July course was superb and if he comes on for that as expected, he will be almost unbeatable here.
Visinari @ 6/4
Put up visinari at 9/4 in my tipping thread a few days ago
With dettori on board setting the fractions in a small field this horse should be very hard to beat if he improves from his debut
At current prices Guildsman looks the value as he sets a high standard with his third in the coventry
If I was a bigger punter I’d be tempted to have a saver
It probably isn’t the strongest race ever, but 5/4 or thereabouts on Visinari is short. Guildsman wasn’t far off in the Coventry, would Visinari definitely have won the Coventry? Maybe, but i wouldn’t be taking almost 5/4 on it! Platinum Star will probably also benefit from stepping back up in trip. Illusionist only 1.5Ls back didn’t help the form in Ireland though.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Surely the price is short for Visinari, but I find it more justified than for the so long injured Masar, even if it’s hard to compare those races directly.
This Visinari situation reminds me a bit of Natalie’s Joy last year before the Chesham where she was a ‘certainty’ according to the time fanatics off the back of her wide margin, quick time Goodwood maiden win. She duly went off 5/4F for the Chesham and was well held in 7th. The race Visinari won looked like it fell to pieces in behind and I doubt Ottoman Court is one of Godolpin’s better 2 year olds if they felt the need to reach for cheekpieces on his 2nd start. There’s every chance Visinari is a freak and he simply broke that field with his quality on debut but he needs to be to justify that price. I can’t be having those sort of prices about once raced 2 year olds, particularly ones trained by Mark Johnston with all due respect. Visinari had the benefit of Ryan Moore getting him to the rail and he duly made all. We know he handles the ground and the track which are two big ticks in fairness to him but I’ll be taking 7/2 widely available about a horse in Guildsman who was also a wide margin winner on debut and backed it up with a sound run in the Coventry where the front 3 all look very useful sorts to my eye.
Very impressive win by Visinari at Class 4 level on the July Course on 8th June and he will surely improve for his run, however he takes a big step up in class for this race and I’m afraid the booking of Frankie Dettori has sent his price into freefall.
PLATINUM STAR at 13/2 not only represents better value and looks to be a class apart having run just half a length 2nd to the classy and beautifully bred Southern Hills (Gleneagles) in the Windsor Castle Stakes at Ascot on 19th June at Class 1 level and on ground he didn’t appear to like.
With Harry Bentley on board and bearing in mind how well Godolphin horses perform on the July Course it has to be PLATINUM STAR for me on Thursday
JacHein .. I do believe that Masar will bounce back in the Princess Of Wales Stakes later in the day and does deserve his short price being a past Derby Winner, he ran no race last time at Ascot and as long as he doesn’t make a horlicks of exiting the starting stalls he’ll
win
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Whilst that’s an interesting comparison TinMan, I wasn’t with Natalie’s Joy in the Chesham last year whereas would’ve backed Visinari even for the Coventry has he ran there.
He really looked special. I’m happy to play at 6/4. Really think that debut performance was taking and all the time, sectional, speed, 2 year old etc experts thought so too.
And even if they didn’t, it was an eye catching run but to backed up by the clock, I would expect he’s a very good two year old.
Fair enough Jac, then the rare case occurs that we don’t agree here.
You see it all blue (would have almost said as usual
), and I see it vice versa.
Let the games begin soon, as we can be excited and look forward to what truly will happen
TheTinMan,
Natalies Joy won her maiden in a fast time, but nowhere near as good as Visinari’s. Natalies Joy’s performance was at 6f and a half sister to a sprinter (who was by a sprinter) and 7f horse (who was by stamina influence Monjeu). Natalies Joy is by Lope De Vega (far less of a stamina influence than Monjeu. She also went up from 6f on the fast track of Goodwood on debut to 7f on a stiff track in mid-June. 7f is a fairly big test of stamina for a two year old that early in the season. Presumably due to stamina doubts there was also a change of tactics – racing mid-div. Natalies Joy was 8 1/2 lengths 7th of 11, beaten far too far for that to be Natalies Joy’s true form. 30 lbs different according to Timeform. All horses can be expected to improve from debut and her debut Timeform Rating was better than Arthur Kitt produced in winning the Listed Chesham. Natalies Joy was very well backed in to 5/4 fav (still odds against, ie still a probable loser). For some reason, possibly due to a combination of trip and a change to being held up in mid-div – Natalie’s Joy disappointed. These things happen in horse racing. However, less than a month later on 20th July, possibly importantly back to 6f and back to racing prominently – Natalies Joy pretty easily won a race of the same Listed standard as the Chesham. A performance that on ratings would’ve easily won the Chesham. Is that not justification of what people thought of her? Had a severe setback afterwards and not seen again for over 10 months – not surprisingly well beaten only run since.Visinari’s debut is rated quite a bit higher than Natalie’s Joy’s debut… and is running at the same track and over the same distance as that debut. Although I would not put anyone off backing Guildsman. imo Toss up which horse is the better value, which one to go for as the main bet. Am another on Visinari for the Guineas @ 50/1 believing him to have great potential, so have chosen him as the main bet here too @ 5/4. Saved on Guildsman @ 7/2. Pair together imo have a much better chance than the 66.6% currently on offer.
People seem to remember when sectiomal analysis don’t immediately show profit, but what about the countless times it does work? Those that kept the faith even profited with Natalies Joy.
Sectionals and/or pace is an important part of my analysis that gives me an edge and allows me to make consistent profits. 
Value Is EverythingAnd to the Johnston form:
Traditionally he had been criticized for not being too reliable, but this season looks special, as he appears to be in the form of his life, doesn’t he?
He even robbed our races in GermanyYes I remember Main Edition taking the Oaks there
I’m really looking forward to the July Festival Hein and yes I did realise my choices here were all blue as per usual..LOL but I have confidence in them because of the fact that Godolphin train their horses on an identical gallop to the Rowley Mile and the July Course less than two miles away. That’s why they have such a good record at Newmarket on both courses.
Best of luck with your bets ..
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Sure Jac, knowing the course is imo not all, but at least an asset.
Enjoy those live racing days and best of luck for you too Have to agree with Jac re PLATINUM STAR am on at 13/2 and that looks a huge price against the reputation of Visinari ! Okay was impressive first time out but has to do it in a classy race before I laud it!
Guildsman is the danger on the Arizona form
Why, Raymo?
You say it is “against the reputation of Visinari”. It’s not reputation, it’s proven ability. When a horse puts up an extraordinary time in a maiden/novice then think of it as a time trial, similar to a Tour De France time trial; or an unknown 100 metre sprinter who’s put up a sensational time in Jamaica. Provided we can be sure it’s not drug assisted, distance raced over and timing are accurate… Only horses/cyclists/runners of a certain standard can put up that sort of time.Or think of it as two races run at exactly the same moment in time on courses alongside each other, all carrying the same weights. One a maiden/novice and the other a Group 2. Pace of the race is good in both races and leaders of both races are level two out each side of the same rail… The Group 2 winner puts up a time condusive to Group 2 standard; but the debutant leader of the maiden/novice beats all the Group 2 runners to the winning post.
Value Is EverythingYou didn’t challenge my pitching in of Platinum Star at 13/2 Ginge but when Raymo agrees you question his choice of a colt who is improving with every run and shouldn’t be written out of the equation. Until Visinari proves himself at a higher level and that may well be tomorrow, surely it’s fair to say you would rather wait to see if he truly can live up to his high ratings.
Sorry to have highjacked your question RaymoI like to see a horse who improves with each race and if PS fails on Thursday then it is back to the drawing board so to speak, it’s that simple for me. I enjoy taking a chance.
Between Visinari and Guildsman I believe Guildsman has the better chance but that is only my own personal opinion and out of the 3 horses he could win. However the Form of Platinum Star against Southern Hills on unsuitable ground at Ascot should not be written off.
It will be an interesting race and whoever wins will feature in next years Classics..good luck Raymo
and to all having a bet on these young improvers…Jac Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Perhaps the comparison with Natalie’s Joy was a touch unfair and I do apologise for that it was a touch lazy on my part but she did spring to mind immediately when I looked at the race being a 2 year old for the same trainer off one run going into a better race at a short enough price (for me at least). I understand she didn’t run to form in the Chesham but the example highlights my very issue about Visinari tomorrow – he is a 2 year old having just his 2nd start, there is very little to go off.
For what it’s worth I was very impressed by Visinari as well and the point about time was that a lot of the praise I heard from the better pundits in the racing media or at least the ones I respect were more commenting on the time versus Flavius Titus’ time in a handicap over the same course and distance. I haven’t seen the sectionals for either race to say whether they would actually be fairly comparable but I believe Timeform and Top Speed were suitably impressed with Visinari and indeed Simon Rowlands of ATR who is one of the best around at judging around in this area has tipped Visinari for tomorrow and is very complimentary about his stride length etc…
I don’t even take issue about him being favourite because he did manage it over the same course and distance he runs over tomorrow which counts for a lot and as Ginger quite rightly points out wasn’t a luxury afforded by Natalie’s Joy. Guildsman didn’t win the Coventry and officially the handicapper has erred on the side of caution/negativity towards the Coventry in terms of the ratings afforded to the principles relative to historical performances in the race. I took a more positive view of the front 3 but I must stress 2 year olds aren’t my area of speciality hence me not being able to confidently back a short priced favourite in a Group race at the level stakes I tend to bet at. I personally think the prices are wrong between the first two in the market and Guildsman is an acceptable price for me to get involved.
Eh?
My challenging has nothing to do with Platinum Star, Jac. Anyone can have any opinion of what’s value. What I am challenging is the idea of Visinari’s chance/form/price being based on “reputation”. I may well have challenged your post; but Raymo’s was the last post before mine and although yours went so far it didn’t mention reputation. Visinari is a horse I have great respect for and wanted to defend. Is that wrong?You say “Until Visinari proves himself at a higher level and that may well be tomorrow, surely it’s fair to say you would rather wait to see if he truly can live up to his high ratings”.
Visinari has that rating for very good reason; putting up a time that only a horse of that rating is capable of. It does not matter what the name of the race is. Sometimes a Group 2 won’t be good form and sometimes a maiden/novice will be… Because form ratings are all about how quick each horse can get from A to B. Maybe he will, maybe he will not have the best form coming out of tomorrow’s race. But – when taking in to account race times – going in to the race it is easy to rate Visinari as having the best form. ie Putting up that time has proven himself at this level.
Value Is Everything
Jac
), and I see it vice versa.
Sectionals and/or pace is an important part of my analysis that gives me an edge and allows me to make consistent profits. 
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