June 20, 2019 at 01:12 #1446079
I should leave this well alone, my record is brutal, but I’ll never learn.
It’s not priced up yet, so plenty of time to change my mind, but jumping off the page right now….
Bowerman – Looked ideal for The Hunt Cup, but he’s swerved it, and he looks just the right type. Big player if he heads here.
Burnt Sugar – Reigning champ, and just possible that he’s been laid out for a repeat bid. Coming back down the weights nicely.
Gifted Master – I really think he’s a winner waiting to happen, and should things not go to plan for him in The Wokingham, then he’ll be of serious interest here.
Shady McCoy – Hasn’t done much since finishing second in this last year, but as a result he’ll come here off a lower mark. Trainer has had a good week, and this looks another potential big race winner for him.
Spanish City – Third in this last year, but unlike Shady, he’ll come here higher. He’s earned that though, holding his form well without winning. Obvious player.
Zhui Feng – Finished down the field in The Hunt Cup, but shaped well for a long way, and if trimmed another a couple of pounds, then a potential “dark horse”
Very pleased that I can sit this out, and that’s a fairly short shortlist for me right now, and I’ve a feeling the list will have a different look nearer the time. The Wokingham could have a big impact on the complexion of this race.
No bet then for now (obviously), but I really do like the 1, 2, 3 from last year, but my early #1 is….
Zhui FengJune 20, 2019 at 12:58 #1446145
- Total Posts 5935
Spot on Bobby, I’ll be all over Bowerman if he turns up. I was well miffed that he didn’t
show for the Hunt Cup, I thought he’d have a cracking chance. I lost a few quid on that
one, hopefully he can make it up to me if he heads here. I’m also a fan of Gifted Master and
had a go with him in the Wokingham. I’m surprised that the 33s is still holding up with Bet365,
that’s surely worth a punt. He’s dropped down to a mark of 107, and he won the Stewards’ Cup
last year off of 111. It looks like he’s still on for the Wokingham, but if he does drop out
and heads here I’ll no doubt have another go.June 24, 2019 at 16:46 #1446910
Graham, No sure that Gifted Master would have made an impression on Saturday, even having been hampered, but keeps him a nice price for this.
No bet for now, but no change to my shortlist with Ascot over with.June 28, 2019 at 01:53 #1447101
Graham, did you catch Bowerman today, it wasn’t good.
Also noticed that Gifted Master would t go here, and is out.June 29, 2019 at 02:50 #1447188
- Total Posts 5935
Apologies for the late reply Bobby, I don’t know how I managed to miss that he was
running on Thursday, I was up to my eyes with other stuff though. I spent most of
today travelling south to see my son in Oxford. A great deal of it parked on the
M6 so I’m only catching up on things now. Perhaps it wasn’t a bad thing I missed
him, I might have been a few shillings lighter. I’ve just watched the replay, he
seemed to be travelling well, until he was asked for something. I wonder if something
will come to light, it was almost too bad to be true. He’s doubled in price, 20/1
with Hills for this, but I’m very doubtful about him turning up and in any case he’d
be hard to fancy after that.
Gifted Master didn’t have the best of luck in the Wokingham Bobby, and was
let down easy when his chance had gone. He’s down another 2 lbs to 105, he
has to be competitive off that mark. Personally I’d love to see him in the
Ayr Gold Cup. Palmer considered sending him there back in 2017 when he was
on a mark of 109, but would have had to carry a penalty of 5lbs for winning
a listed race at Newmarket prior to the race and would have been carrying top
weight 10st. Palmer went off the idea as he thought it would be a big ask with
the ground like a bog. Surely off of 105 he would be worth a crack at it now.June 30, 2019 at 13:22 #1447339
Yeah Graham, he’s certainly on my shortlist for Ayr right now.June 30, 2019 at 15:33 #1447349
- Total Posts 67
Admirality is very much on my mind for this one. Represents the same connections as Burnt Sugar, travelled like a really good horse at York last time in a solid 0-105 handicap, just nabbed close up by Firmament. Has only had the three runs so far for Roger Fell since moving from Johnny Murtagh. He won on debut at Thirsk off 90 and I thought he looked there like he had plenty up his sleeve, he’s only 4lbs higher here if he gets in (45 on list). The thing I like most of all is he races up near the pace which I think is key if they get fast ground on either of the Newmarket courses. He does seem to need Good/Good-Firm ground to be seen to best effect. 91 was enough to get in last year so I’d be hopeful enough drop out but if not he’ll be high on my list for the Silver version.
Edit – confirmed target according to Middleham Park Racing on their website – “We began the week with seven entries at the Royal Meeting, however as well as LEROY LEROY being pulled out of the King George V due to the soft ground, two were balloted out of their planned races: ADMIRALITY (Roger Fell) from the Wokingham Stakes – he will now head to the Bunbury Cup and WAARIF (David O’Meara) didn’t get into the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes, but instead ran at Ayr yesterday in the Class 2 and took a great 2nd place. He will probably now head to the John Smith’s Cup at York.”July 4, 2019 at 12:53 #1447550
Interesting shout TTM, and at least you know he’s going. Still a nice 16’s too.
I’m in the dark here, with Zhui Feng running Saturday now. This would be his fourth run in four weeks, so maybe not.
I’ll probably go with Burnt Sugar and/or Shady McCoy, but can’t have an early play just now.July 8, 2019 at 18:20 #1448015
Zhui Feng not declared thankfully, which takes away a bit of confusion.
Shady McCoy is entered up on Friday, so no option but to leave him for now, so I’ll go with Burnt Sugar, which will hopefully be the only selection.
Burnt Sugar 25’s EW 5 PlacesJuly 11, 2019 at 22:00 #1448292
- Total Posts 67
Nice price on Burnt Sugar VTC he’s half those odds now.
I’m delighted they’ve stuck a hood on Admirality he ran again at Leicester since I mentioned him and just like his run at York he travelled supremely near the pace but got headed close home off a big weight. It might be that he’s over-racing a touch in getting to the lead and the hood could be the key to getting him to see out his races better. I think he’s got a good draw as well, expecting the two Johnston runners in 19 and 14 to go forwards. Not sure there’s a massive amount of pace on low if there is any bias from that point of view.
Of those near the front of the market Solar Gold looks the proverbial handicap blot for Haggas running well in two fillies Listed races against the 2nd from the Commonwealth Cup up at Haydock over 6F. I’d be pretty certain she’s a fair bit better than 96 (she’s officially 1lb well in already). 10/1 is probably fair enough, I think she’ll be very close to going off fav. Crossing The Line isn’t as unexposed and carries more weight but has similar claims on their last run at Chelmsford at a bigger price.
I’d be keen to get Spanish City beat, without wanting to be too harsh he’s the ultimate bridal merchant and I expect he’ll come travelling like a dream here again and get outbattled by something that’s off the bridal long before him but wants to win more.
Ripp Orf’s been given a real chance by the handicapper dropped 5lbs since the season started and if you can ignore his Epsom run (he ran a shocker there last year as well in amongst his good form)- his runs in the Lincoln and Victoria Cup were decent and Gerald Mosse should be a really good fit as a jockey for his style. He is better at Ascot’s 7F but has won here over a mile and his odds look a little too big if he’s not hindered by being drawn low.
Of those at much bigger prices I will have a swing at Zap for Richard Fahey off bottom weight. He’s done nothing much this season but won the Silver Bunbury last year and won his side of the draw in the International at Ascot last year off significantly higher marks than this. He’s a wild price for a reason but one of those horses who can just pop up out of nowhere. First time visor applied too I see which is interesting and he’s Fahey’s only entry which is unusual he normally floods these big handicaps.
Admirality EW 5 places 14/1 (main fancy)
Ripp Orf EW 20/1 boost with Ladbrokes
Zap EW 35/1 boost with Ladbrokes as above.July 12, 2019 at 01:27 #1448302
Cheers, if he goes lower again I’ll probably lay off stake, but that’s maybe being optimistic.
Agree on Zap in particular, looks too big.July 13, 2019 at 02:57 #1448416
- Total Posts 2540
I do like to see recently placed listed horses in these big handicaps. In general, I find them low enough in the weights but classy enough to still win. Walkinthesand yesterday being the perfect example.
I’ve missed the price on the favourite but I’m happy to play him each way here at 6/1 with 5 places on offer. I think Solar Gold will be suited to the way the race is likely to go and he’s my selection in a decent renewal – but not a great one.
Solar Gold @ 6/1 E/W (5 places)July 13, 2019 at 08:56 #1448436
- Total Posts 4510
I am on three in this
CROSSED THE LINE at 14/1
But can’t be confident and I usually love these big handicaps but this looks devilshly hard
Good Luck GuysJuly 13, 2019 at 10:28 #1448467
- Total Posts 131
I am very keen on Ambassadorial here. On the nose, 12-1.
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