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I’m not sure if that’s a wind up Frenchy15. I will agree with you that it was a weak St James Palace, Circus Maximus won’t win another Group 1 in his career unless they place him very well imo and if they aim him lower he’ll have to saddle a Group 1 penalty. I’ll retract what I said earlier in this thread about it being as bad as last years, that was far worse. KOC is a better horse than Without Parole I’m pretty sure of that much. The race couldn’t have gone any worse for him he’s been beaten by a horse who’s been up with the pace off a crawl and who stays further so was always going to be tough to reel in and KOC has shown all his greenness, hung across the track, he’s had to pass everyone off said sedate pace, he’s only just gone down having stepped up from Listed company into a Group 1. The caveat to his form is that it was a strong Listed contest (Heron) with Sangarius franking the form and it was a weak Group 1 as far as the St James Palace goes, mainly because the English and French Guineas winners weren’t at Ascot and the Irish Guineas winner ran no sort of race, so the gulf isn’t as wide as it might appear on paper. If Gosden can sort out the greenness and the quirks he’s far far from the finished article but that isn’t a given and if he shows said tendencies to hang at a track as undulating as Goodwood he could be in a spot of bother. I’d be inclined to take him on not because I think he’s not good enough but because he might not be professional and streetwise enough taking on older horses.
That 6/4 is probably the worst price I have seen all year
Won’t be if the race cuts up to King Of Comedy, Lord Glitters, Zabeel Prince, Skardu, Never No More, Romanised, Happy Power and Matterhorn!
Probably won’t be *that* extreme but might be.
Given what hes achieved be shouldn’t even be 6/4 in that field
It’s a truly ludicrous ante post price
I’m not sure if that’s a wind up Frenchy15.
Not sure which part you mean Tinman but no wind up no!
It was a weak SJP and if KOC was that good he should’ve won. Greenness maybe but as you say there’s more than enough doubt there at the price that he won’t improve.
These form lines need a bit of dissecting as well as it was first time out for sangarious.
However I’ll watch the race back again in the morning, maybe I’m being too harsh on him. All the EW I won on him was lost on TDH to win so it was a frustrating race for me!!
Sangarius was giving him weight and race fitness
Also from memory sangarius was a big drifter on the day so they were expecting him to come on for the run
dont think that is form to take on face value
There’s still 11/4 about so the debate is a tad pointless!?
If TDH doesn’t go which it’s priced like he won’t then it’s pretty much KOC up against the older horses, bar perhaps POS. Given the fact that the older horses are a very average bunch it’s clear the books are covering themselves. I can see why people would grumble about the 11/4 still, but Frenchy i’d be very surprised if he doesn’t improve. JG mentioned how the horse is still very backward + is thinking about things before actually doing them, which i’ve attributed to the fact he took a while to get going in the SJP then started to motor. A horse with 5 runs to his name is much more likely to improve than not.
Even if we take beating Sangarius with a pinch of salt, which is perhaps fair, though he did it with ease, back in the 5th was Walkinthesand who has since won a bit handicap off 105 with fair ease.
KOC is getting 8pds off the older horses with the improvement likely. Zabeel Price is 117 and thats the highest older horse.
Can see why people would take him on, but he’ll be tough to beat.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I support your very good write-up, Jack
Why should an immature horse like KOC already have reached his peak? This would make zero sense to me, and I hope and expect very much the opposite: He will probably develop and improve considerably, and also he will learn from what his trainer teaches him at home.
If people want to take him on, they are free to, but for them it is to hope they do it each way
Having read through the thread, the general opinion would seem that this is a toss up between
King Of Comedy and Too Darn Hot, depending on which side of the fence you sit, and which one
of the two Gosden (or whoever) decides to send. I don’t see it that way. There has been little
mention of Phoenix Of Spain, who despite his last disappointing run I think could have a very decent chance. His win in the Irish 2000 Guineas was a genuinely very good run, in a very decent
time, with a very decent horse behind him. I think it warranted his mark of 120, and it seemed
(to me anyway) that after 4 runs there was every chance he could build on that. As it happened,
it didn’t pan out in St James Palace. I think he’s a top of the ground horse, and although he’s
performed well enough on good, and even g/s, he’s looked a better horse when there’s firm in the
description of the going. His best 2 yr form was when winning the Acomb Stakes on g/f, and the
head defeat in the Futurity at the hands of Magna Grecia on g/s, was turned on it’s head next
time out in the Irish 2000 Guineas on g/f. Charlie Hills mentioned that he finished a bit sore
after the SJP run, and that the ground maybe wasn’t to his liking. Perhaps he was getting his
excuses in, but I think the evidence is there that he is a top of the ground horse.Whatever the ground is at the moment at Goodwood, with there being practically no rain forecast
between now and the race, I think he should get his optimum conditions again. If he does I think
he has a genuine shout. Hopefully the 6 week break will have been enough to get him ready again,
and the 10/1 which is still on offer in a couple of places is worth considering. I’m inBigG, i haven’t seen anything since his below par run bar that Hills did say they weren’t sure he’d come out of the race very good as you have said. Might be a slight worry until the trainer provides an update? If he’s fit and well i’d agree he’s certainly no 10/1 shot in this field.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I’ve spent this morning, having a good look back again at the Queen Anne, St James Palace & Irish Guineas. (worth noting that the winner of the Sussex has come from finishing in the top 3 of either the Queen Anne, SJP or Eclipse 9/10 times. (exception being the 2017 renewal that was in awful conditions and nearly got called off, so we can put a line through that from a trends perspective).
The first 5 home in the Eclipse are not entered, so we can concentrate on the 2 races, Queen Anne and SJP.
Another strong trend, is that 9/10 times(again ignoring 2017), the winner recorded a min RPR in its previous race of 120+.
That doesn’t bode well for Phoenix of Spain. It’s possible he’s a top of the ground horse, but that looks more a guess to me? His best run as a 2year old was on GS ground in the Doncaster Trophy. I am usually very cautious about horses that have the run of the races as well and Phoenix of Spain got that in the Irish Guineas in a race that was also a little sedate pace wise.
I’m expecting Circus Maximus to get supplemented for this, but I think most of us agree, the race worked absolutely perfectly for him in the SJP and he will struggle to replicate.
Regarding King of Comedy. Just because a horse has only run 5 times, doesn’t automatically equate to forthcoming improvement. Thats been proven twice on this thread this year. 1) Was Skardu, general consensus was that he was going to improve all season, well his RPR runs are now 112,111,111,114. 2) Was Telecaster, RPR runs since the Dante are now 88,111. King of Comedy is a very quirky horse and of course he could improve, but he’s been priced up like he will definitely improve. Watching back the SJP, he did not seem to want to go through horses when he started his run and hung a bit and didn’t really get going until he was completely in the clear away from other horses. He’ll struggle to do that at Goodwood, so he needs to have really improved there and that alone is a major question mark for me.
There is a lot of consensus that the older bunch of milers are not up to much and I completely agree, but so are the 3yr olds. I think possibly the Queen Anne race is being a little bit underestimated here. I would be all over Beat The Bank for this, it is such a shame for everyone, he was such a genuine tough and lovely horse to support.
The only other 2 from the Queen Anne are Lord Glitters and Romanised.
I was against Romanised all year last year after the Irish Guineas and so it proved, but I’m changing my mind a little this year, as he seems to have come back into the makings of some form. Denied a clear run in both the Lockhinge and Queen Anne, he is interesting me at 20/1. So is Lord Glitters at 8/1. The trouble with him is his record at Ascot being superb, can he repeat it at Goodwood? However he did finish 3rd last year and he didn’t get the race run to suit either.
The issue with both these selections, is that they both need a strong pace to be at the most effective, based on their career runs so far, so it’s very difficult to have any confidence at this stage as I think the horse that wins this will have the race run completely to suit. It is a very open contest for sure. Ground will also play a part. I am also not sure if they are both being aimed here? I notice Romanised is still on the card for the Meld Stakes on Thursday. Anyone seen any comments relating to these 2 and targets?
So no bets just yet, but 2 that interest me…
Romanised 20/1
Lord Glitters 8/1How many times have I said this, this season, but 5/2 (bet365) in this field could look absolutely massive on the day! After writing all that above, I’ve gone in! He proved last time out, he still has something good. He’s done me so many times this season (I didn’t even back him last time out), so I’ve got to do it this time!
Too Darn Hot 5/2
You’re absolutely right Jack, there is still a degree of doubt, but I was a bit encouraged when Hills
stated “He was sound by Saturday morning and we will now build him back up to his next target which could be the Sussex Stakes.” (raced on the Tuesday).I see that there’s plenty of blue about him on Oddschecker this morning, he’s best priced 8/1 now so I’m
hoping that is perhaps a positive sign from the stable. Having said that, still awaiting some kind of update
from Hills.Wonderful, the last couple of days King of Comedy was shortening extremely, and now the bookies go the opposite way to do the same with TDH
That alone shows what liars and cheaters those bookies are, but this is nothing new
Anyone seen any comments relating to these 2 and targets?
Haven’t seen anything on the two Frenchy. Romanised is also entered over 7f on Saturday so god knows! Given it’s a grade 1 you’d have thought he’d head here, but maybe he’ll want to try + get a win into him?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!
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