Great St Wilfrid 2019

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This topic contains 11 replies, has 9 voices, and was last updated by Venture to Cognac Venture to Cognac 1 month, 4 weeks ago.

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  • #1450987
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 15794

    Always like a try at this, but with weather looking ropey this week, not one to wade right in with…..

    https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/great-st-wilfrid-handicap/winner

    I was keen on Growl for this last year, and having swerved him since, I think this might be the time to back him again. I don’t think he’s been as bad this year as a quick glance at results would suggest. He made the frame last year, and he’ll come here 10lbs lower. He doesn’t win often, it’s certainly been a while since he got his head in front, so his current odds make some appeal with five places available.

    Plenty of others on the radar, and I’ll definitely go with another on the day, and these will all be getting a second look….

    Alaadel
    Ice Age
    Poyle Vinnie
    Venturous
    Vintage Brut

    Not going mad right now though, but I just can’t leave that 20’s for an early play.

    Growl 20’s EW 5 Places

    #1450990
    BigG
    BigG
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5936

    I’m a fan of this race too Bobby. A lot has been made of the draw here, and over the past few
    years it looks marginally that high drawn might have an advantage. I think it’s more so the type
    of race that very much suits something that gets out there early and makes it. With that in mind
    I’m happy to throw a few quid at Dakota Gold at 10/1. I was lucky
    enough to be on him at York in the Dash most recently, he blaized it from the front and even though
    they got to him in the last 1/2f, he went on again and won gamely. He was 2nd here last year, and
    although he’s 8lbs higher this year he comes in top form. I’ll probably have another after the final
    decs, hopefully something at decent e/w odds. If it comes up soft, Dalton, who ran well here
    last week could be of interest, 25s seems big just now, but he needs a few to drop
    out.

    #1451007

    TheTinMan87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 67

    I was watching back the last 5 runnings of this and the consolation yesterday as my early prep for the race and I think from memory nearly all of them bar Mattmu came up the nearside (high draws), he broke from a draw closer to the far side and David Allan made a beeline for that rail and made pretty much all. He did it earlier in the season at Ripon on Hyperfocus too so shows you can win from the other side, he’s one to note on jockey bookings as he rides the track very well. The overriding theme of those renewals and racing generally at Ripon on the sprint courses seems to be that you need something on or near the pace so I’ll be scrubbing off most renowned hold up horses personally as a starting point and probably keeping an eye on the weather and that draw, particularly if there are trailblazers near the nearside rail which I’d still just about favour.

    #1451047
    raymo61
    raymo61
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4510

    STAXTON at 16/1 is the one for me!!

    Well drawn likes to race prominently and is definitely a six furlong horse.

    Dakota will go well too and Reputation could run well at a big price but may well have traffic problems

    Good Luck Guys :good:

    #1451055
    KevMc
    KevMc
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    • Total Posts 1071

    Vintage Brut 28/1

    Decent draw, David Allan as TM87 says rides the track very well and hopefully the additional rain due tomorrow comes and its at least GS or softer on Saturday.

    Wanting to bet Dakota Gold but the 8s is a bit skinny for me, wanting 10s 5 places at least otherwise he’ll be left alone.

    #1451068

    TheTinMan87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 67

    If you take the ceiling of the race on official ratings it looks weak for a race of it’s stature and prize money. The last 5 top weights were 107, 109, 109, 104, 103. This year Vintage Brut is technically the top weight off 102 but he gets WFA being a 3 year old.

    My personal viewpoint is it’s easier for the top weights to give weight away when the class of the race is questionable and even more so when you think there aren’t exactly many lurkers near the bottom of the handicap – Venturous and Poyle Vinnie are actually veterans by all accounts. There’s only 1x 3 year old who happens to be the top weight.

    On that basis alone you’d have to give a strong shout out to the 1-2 from last year and particularly the winner Gunmetal who I’d make a clear favourite with a better draw given he won a better renewal very easily last year and probably would have done so carrying whatever weight you chucked at him. There’s plenty of pace on high again – Staxton, Vintage Brut, Ice Age, Belated Breath…. and that tempers enthusiasm for the two bringing arguably the strongest form into the race in Gunmetal and Summerghand courtesy of their Wokingham efforts which has thrown out numerous very good subsequent performances this season already from the likes of Tis Marvellous, Danzeno and Raucous, they are both drawn very low and I don’t see much pace down there and coupled with the suspected slight bias the other side it would be a concern at their respective prices.

    Ice Age and Intisaab have very good course form and have dropped to very handy marks, both have a touch of class but I don’t trust Ice Age this season and Intisaab is hard to win with and will probably be held-up which I don’t want to see in this race.

    I think Lake Volta will probably run a big race off his gradually slipping mark with last years race winning jockey Joe Fanning on board and he might be my 2nd selection but I too can’t help but feel that there might be something with Vintage Brut. It’s a tough task shouldering what is effectively top weight for a 3 year old against older sprinters and he’s not been in the best of form this season but when he got his conditions last year, particularly in the Rockingham, he looked better than a handicapper and if the blinkers work the oracle in what is his first handicap and the rain does fall he may well return to form here under David Allan. I’m certainly prepared to take a chance at the prices anyway! AND BREATH! :good:

    #1451091
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 15794

    With Growl balloted out, it’s Vintage Brut for me as well lads.

    He’s been on my radar for a while now, and other than those age concerns, he’s got plenty going for him.

    Decent draw, style of running is ideal, so more than happy to stick with him. I’ll take the 28’s, but I’ve a lot more to the 25’s, five places.

    In a race where I would maybe go with three, I like him enough to stick with him alone, but ill add Ice Age as a saver once his price settles. If anyone goes six places, I’ll top up the pair.

    Vintage Brut 28’s Win
    Vintage Brut 25’s EW 5 Places
    Ice Age EW

    #1451109
    robnorth
    robnorth
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    • Total Posts 4243

    I’d normally be looking for one that is more lightly raced than most, but in the main this is a bunch of old soaks. Even Vintage Brut has a few miles on the clock.

    Got it down to three:

    LAKE VOLTA – Although his form figures don’t make it obvious, recent speed figures suggest this one is coming back to a peak. Mark Johnston keeps his animals on the go and it’s worth playing their form cycles.
    GULLIVER – There or thereabouts in this sort of company recently bar a inexplicably duff run at York two outings ago when he must surely have had some problem.
    DAKOTA GOLD – Lightly raced this season, hit form last time and his trainer will presumably have marked this one down as a target from a way out.

    Now with these drawn 13 to 18 all I need is for the action to be on the stands’ side. I think a rail is favourable at Ripon rather than one side or the other.

    #1451120

    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1093

    Lahore 10-1 ew.

    #1451248

    All Jeff
    Participant
    • Total Posts 131

    I’m relieved to see Intisaab as a non runner, as I was close to going with three here.

    In the end I’ve went with Staxton 20-1 each way with 6 places, and also Dakota Gold for the win at 8-1.

    #1451262

    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2406

    WD bigG, rob and AllJeff, no bother to him :good:

    #1451265
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 15794

    Well done guys, a formality.

    Well done Jeff with both of yours coming in, on the back of Growl as well, great stuff.

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