1000 Guineas 2020

Quadrilateral tongue tied for the first time. Ooooohh that’s slightly worrying. Always think tongue tied after a disappointing effort can sometimes be a positive. Or a horse that needs to find quite a bit of improvement in order to win can be a positive. But tongue tied after you’ve won a group 1 and are favourite to win a classic?.. Suggests a problem has come to light in the interim.

Peaceful and So Wonderful taken out. Peaceful has potential to improve but her form as it stands is way short of Classic standard and looks more of a middle-distance filly anyway. So Wonderful so mediocre, some reasonable placed efforts in lesser company but nothing suggesting Group 1 material and hasn’t even won a race yet. Love herself only has placed Group 1 form and according to Timeform lacks physical scope. No real reason to think she can turn the tables on one with scope, Quadrilateral. Stable lacking in two year old filly talent last year. Love unusually the only AOB runner in the Fillies Mile too and could only manage third there. I wouldn’t take it as stable confidence. That said, if Quadrilateral disappoints and Millisle fails to stay… this may not take much winning.

If there is something wrong with the yard – Arizona and Wichita both uneasy in the 2000 Market and likewise Anthony Van Dyk for Coronation Cup. Possibly punters putting two and two together and making five? In some quarters probably just the horses finding their rightful place in the market.

As you say Ginger looks ripe for an upset to me but I haven’t done too much digging as to where that might be yet. I loved the way Boomer shaped in the fillies mile but she looked a slightly doubtful stayer to me although faster ground could help and being a year older etc… I just can’t envisage Dascombe training the 1000 Guineas winner.

I was keen to take Quadrilateral on myself and with the tongue tie I suspect even if it is nothing sinister punters will put 2&2 together and she’ll drift. If you don’t think its an issue then fill your boots when the drift happens. Love will attract money with Aidan’s record in the race, being his only runner and she is similarly bred to Hydrangea, Hermosa and Magical being a daughter of Galileo out of a Pivotal mare, she ticks a lot of boxes in that regard. I didn’t think she had many excuses in the Fillies Mile and she might just be a bit more average or alternatively Quadrilateral and Powerful Breeze might potentially be very good and she is just a good filly we just don’t know yet.

My concern with Millisle isn’t so much if she’ll stay its more that the Cheveley Park was quite strongly run and in my opinion fell into her lap a little bit and that run aside her form isn’t actually that much stronger than most of the others in the field. There are a few in there I’d have doubts about staying a mile before Millisle including Raffle Prize and that is what adds to the intrigue.

Well 1) horses are entitled to improve from first to second run quite naturally 2) AOBs improve significantly from first to second run on a very consistent basis 3) I trust AOB when he talks about what ground his horses like, it’s paid me to do it over the years 4) I like her run in the Fillies Mile, she travelled beautifully until 3 out and then just didn’t really pick up and wondered around a little bit 5) she has the comment ‘quickened up’ in her form of the Moyglare signalling that she does have it within her 6) she had the comment ‘classy performance’ in the Silver Flash Stakes both those races on better ground.

I think it’s much more likely than not personally.

In terms of winning she has a very similar form background to Hermosa actually and I got on at 16s(could’ve been backed the day after at 22s!!)

Granted she is a little short now, however unless there is a significant problem in the stable I think it’s a massive pointer that she’s the only one running as well.

Granted it’s guesswork there. If Love isn’t good he doesn’t have a Coronation Stakes horse now though either, as presumably the others will run next weekend. It would be pretty unusual for AOB not to have his horses ready at the start of the season though even this year

Siskin and the Harrington fillies won quite a few races

His crop certainly didn’t seem to be of their normal high quality to me

Yeah i seemed to remember it slightly, but was doubting myself, so….it’s possible he’s either not got his best ones out, for whatever reason, or he might not have quite as strong a 2yo/3yo string this year..

He could win both guineas now i say that, but Love doesn’t strike me as a top top filly. Just my view.

The more I look at Les Hogues, the more I like her. It’s an open looking race and favourites don’t have a great record. Both Quadrilateral and Love might be better over further and Millisle over shorter. Underneath that there isn’t much with a great chance I don’t think. I like Boomer, but can’t see her winning. Les Hogues formlines are actually pretty solid..

Second at the back end of last season in a French Group 3 race to Dream and Do. Dream and Do just won the French 1000 Guineas. Before that she was second in behind Earthlight on second start and then looked quite impressive when winning a Listed race in France back in July from a horse that franked the form by winning her own Listed race next time out. After that she disappointed slightly in a Group 3 finishing 4th as favourite, but all 3 horses that finished above her were colts. The winner of that race was only beaten just under 3 lengths by Victor Ludorum in the French 2000 Guineas recently and the second has come out and impressively won a Group 3 this season.

Out of Bated Breath who doesn’t scream classic winner, but did everything but win a Group 1. He finished 2nd four times and is also the sire of Daahyeh, one of the likely favourites without recent injury. On the Dam side is Peintre Celebre, an Arc winner and Cieran Fallon is riding her, what a story that would be…

25/1 EW is a solid shout, especially with some paying 4 places.

Les Hogues 25/1 EW – Gone in for a bit more