1000 Guineas 2020

Daahyeh out of the race, should be back by mid july

I can’t have Millisle personally, no way she stays a Guineas mile based on breeding trends. They went pretty fast in the Cheveley Park and Millisle got the old “Newmarket Golden Highway Rail Run” to finish off. I didn’t see the day but the RP comments… the rail was looking fast all day and for me, there is a definite bias on that rail on certain days at Newmarket.

Les Hogues might be worth adding to this after Dream and Do’s win the in the French 1000 Guineas this afternoon. Les Hogues beaten just a neck in their final two-year-old race in October.

Les Hogues 25/1

Thanks Jac, yeah I see what you mean, could even improve for faster ground then. Can never write off AOB second strings either!

You’re right that Newmarket often favours the rail, Frenchy. But doesn’t seem that much evidence on this particular day. Winner did come from nearest the rail and first three drawn 9, 10 and 8 of 11 starters. But the pair that followed Millisle home were the right duo according to the market (fav and 2nd fav). True, most of the winners on the day were drawn high / raced more to the stand side but they didn’t beat those drawn low / racing in the centre by much. Cambridgeshire winner came Stand side, but he was a pretty short priced fav and only just got up from one racing centre.
Although Millisle was outpaced early on she stayed on up the hill. The other one outpaced out the back was the third Tropbeau. Third home attempted to make all, but the fact they broke the track record suggests it wasn’t overly overly strong (otherwise leaders would’ve fallen in a heap and time would’ve been slow). Raffle Prize (and Tropbeau for slight interference) worthy of only a small upgrade imo. 6f is obviously a sprint but the Cheveley Park was more of a stamina test than most sprints given the pace.
I’d have more doubts about Millisle if she were still racing at 6f tbh. She’ll imo be suited by at least 7f at three and will probably stay a mile. Yes, top line in pedigree is sprinter based… Starspangledbanner, Choisir etc… Dam’s sire and grand sires (Indian Ridge and Ahonoora) also sprinters… But the tail female line makes Millisle’s stamina credentials far more interesting. Millisle is very speedy compared to most of her siblings. Some – admittedly from bigger stamina influences – have been middle distance/stayers. Dam Green Castle’s best performance from not many starts when runner-up at a mile. Grandam Green Lucia placed in Irish and Yorkshire Oaks was a half-sister to Old Vic. Great grandam’s full brother won the 2000 Guineas – High Top.

Tail female line added to (just as importantly imo) a relaxed way of going about things – settles well – gives Millisle imo a better chance of staying than not staying… And then there’s the value aspect. She’s 6/1 and if she were a definite miler she’d be disputing favouritism with Quadrilateral.

I’ve got a nice ante-post price about Quadrilateral from way back, but (as long as it doesn’t turn soft) I rate Millisle a big danger. Trainer had a lot to choose from too, now the favourite and second fav for the Irish version have been taken out of Newmarket I’ve had some 6/1 Millisle.

Size doesn’t matter
Danedream was underestimated due to her tiny figure for far too long..

Talking of the weather GT, it’s changing in a bad way but hopefully just sprinkles and the ground will be fast but it says fresh breezes for both days. I wonder if anyone knows what direction it needs to blow in to be coming down the home straight as that would make a difference to horses trying to get home. It’s going to be a Westerly breeze apparently.

They were looking at the Commonwealth Cup with her before the Middle Park and she could’ve been backed at 40/1 straight after the race, now she’s 6s?!

No horse in the last 20 runnings has won with a joint sire index of that low, is some stamina on the Dam’s Dam side going to be enough? Perhaps,but she’s way too short for me. There’s just way too much speed around her in the pedigree.

I get what you’re saying about the race but visually that looked a little suspicious and these seem to pop up fairly often at Newmarket. It could be debated until the cows come home but it’s suspicious at the very least. I wouldn’t base my thinking just on that though.

Had a look at the weather.

Could be coming from the north west or a cross wind at Newmarket. Not much rain. Giving a splash on thursday here in Ireland.

By the looks of it there wont be a head wind.

its mad you want a drop of rain for safe going.
The farmers want rain.
The parents with their kids heading for the beach, the ones allowed of course dont want rain.
The laddies with a big garden wants rain.
The construction workers dont want rain.
The pubs are closed here and i cant get a pint of Guinness.
My beloved bookie shop is closed until June 28, I am led to believe.

Therz a barman going round with kegs in a van selling pints below the normal price charging a 2 euro deposit on the pint glass.
New York city is being looted.
Trump is threatening to bring in the army.
The potato growers are going mad for rain.
So are the barley and wheat men.
Many coming into the country have to do 14 days self isolating.
The builders are having their temperature checked every day on site, if its over 37 they are sent home.
Nobody wants to fly for a long time, major Airlines are up sheiks creek. Many redundancies and financial bailouts.
Orange juice futures are worth more than Oil reserves.

Big High street retailers are going to the wall. Not the fast moving consumer goods, milk,bread, fruit n veg, alcohol.
Watch this space… before the Coved-19 started ..the guide cost of a unit in a large shopping centre that are owned by big pension funds and their like was 250 euro square foot. That includes rent, rates, services like security, cleaning and other sundries….so a 1000 sq.foot shop…the retailer is 250,000 euros down before they sell anything.

There is no way these retailers are going to pay that money ever again. Then you have the advent of online shopping. The man with the little shop on the corner who suffered badly when these big shopping centres came on the scene is back flying again.

Pinatubo by 4 lengths or more…its a big call !!

Colosus