June 27, 2020 at 09:22 #1491935coops72Participant
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not happy that sir michael isnt going for derbt with highest ground! in an open year with nothing that stands out i think he could have run a huge race. had 33s ante post so maybe talking from pocket!June 27, 2020 at 19:48 #1492011
Berkshire Rocco 2nd to both Santiago and English King. Santiago wins the Irish Derby. Roll on next week.June 28, 2020 at 00:51 #1492036hamParticipant
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What does that mean though in regards to berkshire rocco? What if santiago was not fully revved up for the queens vase? Was his first run of the season and BR’s second?
i doubt santiago will be the best horse from it he technically speaking only beat a maiden winner by a head ? (Tiger moth will reverse the form nto) but the form has no substance, Forget what the horses in tonights race do going forward, just on form up until tonights race, thats arguably the worst irish derby ever ran?
Like ive said im not saying EK cant win he might Very well do, but what about anythings hes done makes you think its a penalty kick?June 28, 2020 at 01:14 #1492038FinalFurlong91Participant
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Thought it was a pretty terrible Irish derby today to be honest and the English king/Berkshire Rocco and Santiago form line looks on the dubious side to me
If Santiago was in Obreins top 3 horses he would be running here, one because it looks better on a stallions CV and two because it wouldve given him an extra week to recover from Ascot
I’m not saying English king cant win, but as someone who doesnt have a nice ante post price hes very much worth taking on
Also cant see kameko staying the trip strongly enough to win, looking at the stats kittens joy progeny tend to be better over shorter than 1m4f so I’m also happy to take him on
What that will be with I am not sure, at this stage leaning towards Mogul
At 10/1 it seems worth gambling that he will take as big a step forward from his seasonal reappearance as Japan did last year
But I will wait a bit longer until committingJune 28, 2020 at 06:52 #1492055
Santiago only ran last week. He would’ve won with no horse near him yesterday if he had the normal time in between races. Only natural that the horse was feeling it in the last furlong after coming through near the back with that acceleration to take it up in the straight. Plus the first and second may not meet again anyway.June 28, 2020 at 07:01 #1492056
Btw i saw a piece on English King’s run in the Lingfield Derby trial regarding sectional timings yesterday. It’s here for your perusal if you’re interested in that sorta thing…June 28, 2020 at 19:52 #1492103fivelongdaysParticipant
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I’m going to take a proper look at this when the declarations proper come out but, as it stands, is there any good reason to discount Pyledriver at his price?
So don't run, just like the others always doJune 29, 2020 at 07:08 #1492126kris_kinParticipant
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Aidan O’Brien says some of his Irish Derby Runners may run at Epsom:
“It’s very possible. I spoke to John [Magnier], Michael [Tabor] and Derrick [Smith] yesterday and the entries are being made on Monday. They’ll wait to see what everybody thinks before they decide to make an entry or not. If any of them have come out of the race exceptionally well and they want to make an entry, then that’s what will happen.
I’d definitely fancy Tiger Moth if he ran.June 29, 2020 at 08:57 #1492127Frenchy15Participant
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When we look at the lineup this year and what they have achieved so far, (with the exception of Kameko), it’s way way down on usual years. Horses need to be running about 118 RPR. PyleDriver was rated 110 for his Ascot win on his 6th start.(2nd for the season). No doubt a half-decent horse for that win, his breeding is very poor for the Derby. He has 4 Doseage points and the average Derby winner has 35. The lowest I think it’s ever been is 14.
The form of that Ascot win is not good either, Arthurs Kingdom was hammered in a poorish Irish Derby and Mogul was blatantly not fit at all. The 5th and 6th best rating is 100 or lower, so that only leaves Mohican Heights, who was probably running on ground less than ideal and was first time out for the season.
It’s shocking form for a Grp2 and does actually make you wonder how much they need to improve Mogul by to have a chance as well.
But the main point is that the standard so far on evidence is way down on usual years, which means 1 of 2 things.
1) This year’s crop of 3-year-olds are all rubbish in comparison to other years
I think this is unlikely to be the case…
2) The way the season has unfolded has made it difficult for horses to get ready/fit/trialed and trainers have had a hard time with the same problem.
This is is easily the most likely scenario for me and means we should focus our attention on the horses we think are most likely to improve a great deal on Saturday.
I don’t think Pyledriver is one of those horses.June 29, 2020 at 11:16 #1492139Frenchy15Participant
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That was an interesting clip Mike on EK, thanks for sharing. What he did that day was impressive, the way he did it, the way he travelled and finished, the way he looked, can’t be disputed really. I notice the RP have increased his rating to 113 as well.
Just depends now how people want to view it. On antipost at nice prices, then you’re laughing, but I don’t think I could recommend anyone backing him now personally.
As mentioned, the form is very dodgy behind it, even Berkshire Rocco’s second to Santiago can be questioned as they went off too fast and set it up for the closers, one being BR.
I still don’t think sectionals can be used that confidently from race to race. What they tell me is exactly what happened in the race and we can use that as guide at best for the future. But it was also a race run on very fast ground. It was officially described as Good To Firm, Firm in places. Long time since I’ve seen Firm in places in a going report so really they were entitled to put up decent sectionals.
He will definitely stay, but it won’t be fast ground on Saturday it doesn’t look like, it’s Good now, with a fair amount of rain showers forecast, so likely it will be Good at best on Saturday, maybe even Good To Soft and that gives him another challenge to repeat what he was doing at Lingfield. He was well beaten on debut on soft ground, not unusual for horses on debut, but adds another little questionmark, especially at current odds.
It’s not the best quality lineup, but I’m really excited about it now, as it’s a very intriguing race for sure this year!June 29, 2020 at 11:34 #1492140ClintsParticipant
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No real opinion here as it looks wide open. I think I am just going to roll the dice and back Mogul in the hope he comes on for the run. He’s still up at 10s with some bookies so I think I will have a bit of that each way. Hopefully that Ascot run was too bad to be true. Time will tell. Good luck everyoneJune 29, 2020 at 11:57 #1492142jackh1092Participant
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Highland Chief to be ridden for the first time by Ben Curtis. Decent pilot, but would’ve liked to see Rossa Ryan keep the ride. It’s not like Curtis offers the same Frankie does to Enlgish King.
Mogul needs to improve a lot for me, i was not even that taken by him as a 2yo. It’s been a reputation belt up by being a brother to Japan IMO. Beating Sinawann and Agitare? Well beaten at Newcastle?
Personally think Mohican Heights shaped by far the best. Mogul of course could have just blown up and will come out a different horse on Saturday, but Simcock couldn’t buy a winner, he’s now had 2 since then. His final win as a 2yo hasn’t worked out bad either. Subjectivist ran a big race at Ascot + Berlin Tango is now 110 rated.
He might actually be more of a St Leger horse, but i’ll probably back him for Saturday.
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!June 29, 2020 at 12:11 #1492143OscarParticipant
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I thought Andrea Atzeni had been booked for Highland Chief?June 29, 2020 at 12:31 #1492145Nathan HughesParticipant
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Yeah I read it was going to be Andrea Atzeni.
A shame for Rossa but if he continues to do well his chance will comeMember since March 2008June 29, 2020 at 12:38 #1492148jackh1092Participant
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It’s Ben Curtis lads. Atzeni is on Mohican Heights
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!
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