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From that it sounds like mogul is their main hope
I think the race all depends on who rides. If he is on Vatican City then they will make the pace steady. If not they will set fast sectionals. Funnily enough the biggest winner for coolmore would be English king as magnier sees Camelot as the next big stallion and also so he can cover loads of the Galileo mares.
It’s as tricky a derby as I can remember but Russian emerperor ew is my best guess as he’s guaranteed to get the trip and will be running on at the end when others are flagging. I’d love to see English king win but not sure he is quite good enough. So many with questions to answer.Mickeyjp I don’t agree with the suggestion that RE is good enough to win and EK not. RE has ran 3 times already and is rated half a stone inferior to a horse that’s ran just the once. RE would need to step up considerably. He may do but in all probability it’ll be EK that has the scope to improve more.
the biggest winner for coolmore would be English king as magnier sees Camelot as the next big stallion and also so he can cover loads of the Galileo mares.
Ew, imagine the chatup lines.
EK: So, girls, where you from?
Mares: We are from Coolmore. Our father is the famous Galileo, by the illustrious Sadler’s Wells.
EK: Hate to break it to yous but in the words of Jose Murinho – not special. Sadler’s Wells is my great granda. Got Mr Prospector on the other side too. So, who’s first….Mogul’s price is terrible Japan went off 20/1 last year with a similar profile. What does that tell you regarding O’Brien’s 3 year old colts if he is considered the main hope when Sir Dragonet, Anthony Van Dyck and Broome all went off shorter than Japan last year. I know part of that is down to the three mentioned winning their trials but the fact is that Cormorant beat Russian Emperor in one of the trials Broome won in Ireland and he would be miles down the pecking order, the fact they are considering letting a full brother of Gleneagles try 12F having run so well in a Group 1 over a mile, the fact they are probably running a maiden winner and a maiden, they even considered letting the Irish Derby winner back up again a week later. It has been very well documented on this forum how bad a year he had with his 2 year old colts last year by his high standards and it seems we are seeing signs of that here. That said he always seems to pull something out of the bag, I’d agree that Mogul is his best shot taking all things into consideration but that isn’t a statement of confidence in that horse by any stretch of the imagination.
I’d agree with pretty much all of that TinMan. Mogul has been regarded as the number 1 in the pecking order for the Derby for a long time now though. We could draw a line through the Vertem Trophy Stakes as they actually left him in that hoping the race was going to be at Newmarket on grass. When it wasn’t they just let him take his chance probably desperate to get more experience into him.
What’s happened this year is a little bit of a mystery, even in a lockdown it’s quite unusual for an AOB to be so far behind in his fitness. It must just be about the horse’s physique and the lack of confidence in him reflects that they are still not sure he will be fit enough.
That said, he has mentioned that he came out of Ascot bouncing and he’s been shortening up in the market this last 24 hours, which is very encouraging.
Remember he doesn’t even have to improve dramatically to win this, it’s so substandard this year, assuming Kameko doesn’t stay.
I was at Ascot last year and right next to Japan in the parade ring. He looked amazing that day. Granted that was his 3rd run of the year, but Mogul does seem like a similar profile. He is one horse in the line up that is nailed on to improve, judging by how “rotund” he was at Ascot.
He also has the best 2year old form in the book, without Kameko, which shows how average this line up is.
In this line up, I’d trust AOB to win all day long, I’m leaning towards Mogul as my pick now and will go in again to add to my antipost, once it’s confirmed, hopefully that Ryan will ride him.
If he doesn’t then it would say a lot about his chances.
If there is a classy Epsom Derby horse in the lineup, it will be either Mogul or English King I believe and I’d rather back an AOB first string at 3 times the price of an Ed Walker in a classic. It’s a no brainer surely?
I will probably also wait to see the draw, as I don’t want 1 or 2 or even 3 ideally. 1 is the coffin box!
Or I might just go in today and hope for a good draw and Ryan Moore riding. Can’t decide!
Yeah since my post support has come from Mogul but Powers + betfair are still shorter on RE. However, i was really just asking whether you would back RE based on your theory of no.1 jockeys? Your initial post about how no.1s have done etc. was very much based on the fact RE wouldn’t be his choice which is fine but at the time of my post he was the shortest in the market. So if he was the choice, that would pose you a dilemma no?
I wasn’t really implying it’s useless, i was implying stats are stats, and you’d have two conflicting ones sittign looking at you lol?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!What ratings are these Mike?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Ryan not riding Mogul doesn’t decrease his chance that much for me. In fact, i’d prefer to see Doyler on him as he’ll drift. Japan (Full brother to Mogul) was third choice last year and should’ve won at 20/1. Mogul was built like a 3 seater sofa at Ascot, he’ll come on a tonne for that run but the worry is it might not quite be enough.
There’s zero chance that they’ll make this a slowly run race as that plays into Kameko’s lack of stamina and Coolmore want to see what the script is with all their horses for the rest of the season, a slowly run race tells them very little.
One of Serpentine & the irish solider will make this a true run race.
English King looks a right weapon and is the right favourite with the doubts about Kameko’s stamina and the Guineas form not standing up fully (Wichita & Pinatubo went a bit too soon and the 10F beast picked them up).
Mohican Heights i’d give a shout to each way.
Decent two year old considering he’s bred to be a 3YO, nice trial when coming from a mile back (Simcock’s are needing the run) and he’s bred to enjoy Epsom and the nice ground.no strong view now that highest ground is not running – have backed pyledriver ew at 18-1 just for an interest
I presume that’s you comparing them to Kameko- have read it again, firstly thought you were comparing their ratings to one + other.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Reading back through Aidan’s stable tour on At The Races right back when racing re-started on 1st June he was leaning towards running Mogul in the Derrinstown Trial rather than Ascot and even then was at pains to point out he’d probably need his first run, the fact they went to Ascot instead which came later suggests he was even further behind than they’d hoped/realised. On another note I should add that he’s also quoted at that point as saying they wouldn’t be in a rush to step Vatican City up in trip which seems to have gone out of the window just a month later. Russian Emperor didn’t even get a mention but then nor did Santiago which shows how much the landscape can change in a month.
It looks a pretty bad renewal at this stage
A horse who has never even run in a group race is short fav
Two potential non stayers on breeding in kameko and vatican city
russian emperor who personally I just cant see being good enough
Then the hype horse in mogul who is yet to live up to that hype on the track
If it wasnt the derby I’d just be watching and mogul at the 10s I took looked the best price of those at the top of the market
I also had £2 on mohican heights at a huge price on the exchange as I dont think he was given the best ride at ascot
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