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Took a bit of 10s on mogul yesterday
Hoping for a big step up as all the talk was that they struggled to get him fit for ascot
Such a tricky year with no Dante, no Chester trials etc…. and you think all those Aidan O’Brien entries in that big a field who will he give the spares to? Doyle and De Sousa would be the biggest names I can think of who don’t have rides and I guess Buick would be free if his Godolphin riding commitments saw him at Epsom on the day anyway, they don’t have anyone entered in the Derby now and he’s showing on Racing Post as having 3 rides at Epsom in other races.
There is a very good article in the Guardian today by Chris Cook which is online primarily regarding team tactics where he’s interviewed Aidan O’Brien, that in itself was interesting but perhaps more so was the hint that Ryan Moore would probably choose Vatican City on Saturday. I’m not sure the market have cottoned onto it yet and it isn’t confirmed but it would make sense to me despite his stamina doubts he’s the only one in the field with genuine Group 1 credentials to his CV bar Kameko albeit we don’t yet know how strong the Irish Guineas was. That if/when confirmed will inevitably cause a flip flop effect with Mogul and Russian Emperor who I believe are slightly ahead of him with most firms. There is also mention that Armory might still go to France instead.
Genuine question those who’ve backed Mogul and Russian Emperor already, if this was to happen who would you like to see riding?
Having backed several obrein classic winners that were second or even third string on jockey booking it wouldnt bother me at all
I’d have very strong stamina doubts about vatican city looking at his breeding
He would be much more suited by the french derby the day after imo
You can get 13/2 with Skybet that Moore rides Vatican City
that price looks good in comparison to Mogul 10/11 and Russian Emperor 5/4
I think he’ll ride Mogul but had a couple of nuggets on Vatican City at that price with the vibes hinting toward VCMember since March 2008I’d be quite happy to see Moore on Vatican City Nathan, I’ve got a fair bit on him
e/w at 16s. Unfortunately I had him doubled up with Fancy Blue in the Oaks, but
that’s down the pan. Not to be deterred I’ve had a 2nd go at the double and taken
the 9/1 for VC and the 9/4 for Frankly Darling. If Moore doesn’t go for him, and
I’ve got the feeling he’ll probably go for Russian Emperor, I’d be happy to see
either Buick or Doyle on him, and De Sousa wouldn’t be a bad choice either.As with all penalty kicks ham, one has to convert and beat the keeper. But I think the keeper will be overcoming any AOB tactics rather than the opposition itself. Some say its ‘wide open this year’. Not really. English King has the x factor here. High cruising speed, a turn of foot, second highest rated with more improvement expected, experience of a similar course, no race distance issue, a normal prep no rushing, and top jockey specially booked to ride. If he was an AOB horse he’d be an 11-8 shot at this time not a 5-2 shot. Kameko has the strongest form but general consensus is he won’t stay so that leaves it for English King to take the race.
I read the Guardian article yesterday as well TinMan. Very interesting and quite unusual for AOB to discuss this so early in the week.
I think the notion that it doesn’t matter who the number 1 jockey picks somewhat flawed personally. I’ve had a look at the last 8/9 Derby and Guineas years to see the following…
DERBY
2012
2 Runners
J O’Brien Picks Camelot – Won2013
5 Runners
J O’Brien Picks Battle of Marengo who finishes 4th– Ruler of the World WonJ O’Brien had won on BOM in the Ballysax and Derrinstown at odds on and Ryan Moore had won in the Chester Vase on ROTW. It just made sense to keep jockey bookings as they were
2014
4 Runners
J O’Brien Picks Australia – Won2015
3 Runners
R Moore Picks Giovanni Canaletto – Finished Best of AOB Runners2016
5 Runners
R Moore Picks US Army Ranger – Finished Best of AOB Runners2017
6 Runners
R Moore Picks Cliffs of Moher finishes 2nd– Wings of Eagles WonR Moore picks wrong, but a complete outsider of the AOBs won. Impossible for Ryan to have picked WOE really
2018
5 Runners
R Moore Picks Saxon Warrior – Finished Best of AOB Runners2019
7 Runners
R Moore Picks Sir Dragonet finishes 4th – 3rd best of AOB2000 GUINEAS
2012
2 Runners
J O’Brien Picks Camelot – Won2013
3 Runners
J O’Brien Picks Cristoforo Colombo – Finished Best of AOB Runners2014
2 Runners
J O’Brien Picks Australia – Finished Best of AOB Runners2015
2 Runners
R Moore Picks Gleneagles – Won2016
R Moore Picks Air Force Blue finishes 12th – Air Vice Marshall finishes 4thAir Force Blue Won 3 x Group 1s & Air Vice Marshall only a maiden winner, no way Ryan would have not picked Air Force Blue who simply just didn’t train on
2017
3 Runners
R Moore Picks Churchill – Won2018
3 Runners
R Moore Not Available
D O’Brien Picks Saxon Warrior – Won2019
5 Runners
R Moore Picks Ten Sovereigns finishes 5th – Magna Grecia Won2020
2 Runners
R Moore Picks Arizona finishes 11th – Wichita finishes 2ndSo I would say only once in the last 8 Derby’s has the AOB number 1 jockey picked wrong and only twice in the last 9 2000 Guineas.
What’s really interesting, is those 3 times are in the last 3 runnings though.
More interesting is that all 3 of those picked horses, were already well fancied in the betting before Ryan picked them.
Russian Emperor has been quite strong in the betting recently. I think it is a massive pointer if Ryan picks Vatican City over RE.
People forget RE has raced 3 times already this season, his scope for improvement on recent trends is limited now going into this Derby and if Ryan and the team think Vatican City has a better chance that would cement that opinion for me and leave RE very vulnerable in the field.
What it says to Mogul’s chances would speak volumes also. I am on antipost, so I will leave it as it is, but if Ryan doesn’t pick Mogul it means AOB doesn’t think he can improve enough.
In any case, the stats tell us, that it’s much more likely than not, that the AOB number 1 jockey picks correctly.
I have also taken some of that 13/2 on Vatican City & Ryan Moore. That’s not priced right on those comments
Winning the Derby before the derby this year??!
My understanding of race riding and what a jockey decides to ride is also based on riding horses in work. Due to the virus and Moore being over here he will get to choose a horse based on feedback rather than ‘being there’ so to speak. I don’t believe Moore has been allowed to travel to Ireland yet to work. If so, it’s possible he ends up on the ‘wrong one’ this time like in the 2000 Guineas.
You are very strong on this angle Frenchy. Yet surely Russian Emperor is strong in the market because Moore’s likely to ride him? So if that happens, would you end up backing him even with your view that a horse having raced for under a year in it’s life isn’t going to improve more? There are stats + there are stats.
How about the stat that 5 out of 5 of Vatican City’s relatives failed to convince that they stayed 1m4 in the UK? He’s worth trying in it of course, but it’s a stat.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I personally don’t think Ryan was ever going to ride RE Jack and that came across immediately in his after race comments at Ascot. I don’t quite get the love in for RE, he takes forever to get racing and he won’t be able to run down derby horses running like he does. Maybe 12f is the key, maybe he’s just already at his level. The markets suggest Ryan is going to ride Mogul today it seems.
I didnt say RE can’t improve Jack, just questioning whether he can improve enough to win a derby.
I would have been confused if RM picked VC for the point you mention, it makes much more sense now if the markets are right today.
I had saver on Ryan picking mogul on Thursday
You say stats are stats implying this one is pointless, but horses that have run 3 times before the derby that are 20/1 or less in the market are 0/12 and that’s just looking at the last 5 years.
It’s proven that derby winners improve rapidly. They don’t take take 3/4 runs to hit derby form as 3 year olds.
Stats will get broken of course, maybe it’s this year, but this is a strong trend over the last 20 years, I can’t see how that’s not relevant?
I doubt ryan will be picking since he hasnt ridden any of them at home
Obrein will tell him which one is going best and he will ride that one
From that it sounds like mogul is their main hope
I think the race all depends on who rides. If he is on Vatican City then they will make the pace steady. If not they will set fast sectionals. Funnily enough the biggest winner for coolmore would be English king as magnier sees Camelot as the next big stallion and also so he can cover loads of the Galileo mares.
It’s as tricky a derby as I can remember but Russian emerperor ew is my best guess as he’s guaranteed to get the trip and will be running on at the end when others are flagging. I’d love to see English king win but not sure he is quite good enough. So many with questions to answer.Mickeyjp I don’t agree with the suggestion that RE is good enough to win and EK not. RE has ran 3 times already and is rated half a stone inferior to a horse that’s ran just the once. RE would need to step up considerably. He may do but in all probability it’ll be EK that has the scope to improve more.
the biggest winner for coolmore would be English king as magnier sees Camelot as the next big stallion and also so he can cover loads of the Galileo mares.
Ew, imagine the chatup lines.
EK: So, girls, where you from?
Mares: We are from Coolmore. Our father is the famous Galileo, by the illustrious Sadler’s Wells.
EK: Hate to break it to yous but in the words of Jose Murinho – not special. Sadler’s Wells is my great granda. Got Mr Prospector on the other side too. So, who’s first….
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