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Epsom derby 2020

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Viewing 15 posts - 181 through 195 (of 387 total)
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  • #1491839
    jackh1092jackh1092
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    • Total Posts 2486

    Taj Mahal seems to be the anomaly here surely? Given it’s an AUS 1m4 as well, i think it’s fair to say the UK 1m2 was probably the furthest he stayed. Happily stayed a mile and a mile 2. Marvellous not really tested well enough to be sure, but clearly didn’t see out the trip all that well either.

    Lads, don’t mean to be the forum policeman here, but could we maybe copy + paste the parts we are replying to? This thread is getting difficult to keep up with. :good:

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1491843
    Nathan HughesNathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 22016

    English King is too short at current odds anyone would think he is trained by John Gosden.
    Good luck to Ed Walker but I’ve sided with Mogul, he seems to be the forgotten horse after his Ascot run but that they would have had this as the main target and everything would be timed to the minute for this.

    Member since March 2008
    #1491845
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1704

    2-1 wrong price. Should be 11-10. Steering job.

    #1491846
    Frenchy15
    Participant
    • Total Posts 838

    Taj Mahal seems to be the anomaly here surely? Given it’s an AUS 1m4 as well, i think it’s fair to say the UK 1m2 was probably the furthest he stayed. Happily stayed a mile and a mile 2. Marvellous not really tested well enough to be sure, but clearly didn’t see out the trip all that well either.

    That’s actually what I meant Jack just didn’t word that properly!

    You think an AUS 12f is much easier to get than a UK one though?

    #1491862
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2527

    Maybe mike, but comparing an aiden obrien horse and an ed walker horse in a trial is a vastly different thing, not taking away from EW its just a fact,

    Jack, he definitely will get 10f based off the guineas run for me but IMO anything bred by galileo has the scope to get the trip, i certainly take the breeding angle seriously but when it comes to galileo i tend to just go by what obrien thinks and if he thinks derby then thats good enough for me, the ground next week looks set to be rattling fast and a 10f galileo could well dominate the derby trip, i absolutely agree that 8/1 is too short, like i said 18/1 was more than fine with me when i put it above, would i take 8/1? No i wouldnt, id rather back kameko at 5/1 if i was looking at single digits

    Not sure i buy into the berkshire rocco formline atall jack, horses who needed a run were told to be entered, he could have been tuned up or he could Really have needed it, which would only dampen the trial even more, nothing atall in behind has done a thing. im happy to let EK go and do it, like you said Mike AVD won it last year and he went into the derby @10/1, But AVD was already a group 2&3 winner and placed in group 1s, EK should be 20/1 on form, but hes 2/1 on jockey/hype/owner relations and a little bit of potential, but if your betting on potential, ed walker aint your guy.

    Ill be pretty amazed that on the day, if the proposed field turns up EK doesnt drift to somewhere around 6/1 and kameko replaces him at the head of the market, money almost guaranteed to come for the obrien #1 (likely mogul)

    Anythings race, including EK, kameko should be the outright fav.

    #1491865
    kris_kin
    Participant
    • Total Posts 33

    I had been getting my dosage scores from a website which listed them all in one ‘handy’ list but it seems there were errors on it (eg Sea of Stars DI 3.0) . Have now updated my sheet from pedigree query website and Dominant Classicity is not such a strong trend (now only 10/15). And yes Kameko’s DI is now a stand out as too high.

    #1491870
    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3018

    I have added a bit EW on Amhran na bhFiann at 50s. He had a nice canter round the back on his only 2yo start when he was big and gangly, and ran a respectable race behind his stablemates on reappearance.

    He’s a good looking horse with a good pedigree: full brother Douglas MacArthur didn’t disgrace himself at Epsom despite running with the choke out the whole way and sister Was won the Oaks. AOB cited him as one of his Epsom horses a month ago so perhaps he thinks the horse will cope well with the track.

    It’s a trivial point but he also has a significant name!

    #1491877
    kris_kin
    Participant
    • Total Posts 33

    Highest Ground is out will go for the Dante. How weird does that sound?

    #1491879
    jackh1092jackh1092
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2486

    Absolutely. They are run totally different over there as i’m sure you know. Doesn’t take as much getting.

    On paper the pedigree could allow VC to stay the Derby trip + i won’t question Aidan, but any of the progeny would cast doubt on the trip. Yes there could be an outlier, who knows! I prefer to look at what the progeny have done in general when looking at horses firstly and that’s why i’d have it as a serious question mark.

    I take your point on Galileo Ham.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1491881
    Nathan HughesNathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 22016

    I’m glad I put a couple quid each way on Highland Chief yesterday posted on Wealth Warning DLAP’s
    Was 40’s, this morning top price 20/1… :wacko: :wacko:

    Member since March 2008
    #1491882
    jackh1092jackh1092
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2486

    Nath, Hugh Taylor has stuck him up. Little disappointed i didn’t back him already, as i’ve mentioned him in here + as you know i like him ffs.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1491883
    Nathan HughesNathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 22016

    That explains it, thanks Jack
    Got lucky with my timing on that then, even got the Hills boost to 44’s
    Yes, I know you are a fan of his
    20’s seems a bit short now considering that was his sp at Royal Ascot

    Member since March 2008
    #1491902
    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3018

    It’s always annoying when you’re interested in a relatively unfancied horse and sit tight thinking oh well wait till nearer the time in case it gets injured on the gallops or something, sure it’s price will hold as nobody else is talking about it….
    …and then it gets Hugh Taylor-ed.

    #1491908
    Oscar
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26

    I’m afraid he was bigged up by Tom Segal in the Weekender on Wednesday, at 50-1, so not surprising he’s shortened…
    BTW Mike 007 where did you hear that Emissary would miss the Derby? I can’t find any such reference on the web and would be quite keen if he still went – I see that Khalifa Sat now has Marquand jocked up and wouldn’t be surprised if Emissary were to improve past him.

    #1491919
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1704

    Re Emissary I meant cashed out when i said “out”.

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