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Derby 2020

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Viewing 17 posts - 188 through 204 (of 388 total)
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  • #1491877
    kris_kin
    Participant
    • Total Posts 92

    Highest Ground is out will go for the Dante. How weird does that sound?

    #1491879
    Avatar photojackh1092
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3941

    Absolutely. They are run totally different over there as i’m sure you know. Doesn’t take as much getting.

    On paper the pedigree could allow VC to stay the Derby trip + i won’t question Aidan, but any of the progeny would cast doubt on the trip. Yes there could be an outlier, who knows! I prefer to look at what the progeny have done in general when looking at horses firstly and that’s why i’d have it as a serious question mark.

    I take your point on Galileo Ham.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1491881
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 34904

    I’m glad I put a couple quid each way on Highland Chief yesterday posted on Wealth Warning DLAP’s
    Was 40’s, this morning top price 20/1… :wacko: :wacko:

    Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

    #1491882
    Avatar photojackh1092
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3941

    Nath, Hugh Taylor has stuck him up. Little disappointed i didn’t back him already, as i’ve mentioned him in here + as you know i like him ffs.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1491883
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 34904

    That explains it, thanks Jack
    Got lucky with my timing on that then, even got the Hills boost to 44’s
    Yes, I know you are a fan of his
    20’s seems a bit short now considering that was his sp at Royal Ascot

    Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

    #1491902
    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 9181

    It’s always annoying when you’re interested in a relatively unfancied horse and sit tight thinking oh well wait till nearer the time in case it gets injured on the gallops or something, sure it’s price will hold as nobody else is talking about it….
    …and then it gets Hugh Taylor-ed.

    #1491908
    Oscar
    Participant
    • Total Posts 421

    I’m afraid he was bigged up by Tom Segal in the Weekender on Wednesday, at 50-1, so not surprising he’s shortened…
    BTW Mike 007 where did you hear that Emissary would miss the Derby? I can’t find any such reference on the web and would be quite keen if he still went – I see that Khalifa Sat now has Marquand jocked up and wouldn’t be surprised if Emissary were to improve past him.

    #1491919
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 9667

    Re Emissary I meant cashed out when i said “out”.

    #1491935
    coops72
    Participant
    • Total Posts 91

    not happy that sir michael isnt going for derbt with highest ground! in an open year with nothing that stands out i think he could have run a huge race. had 33s ante post so maybe talking from pocket!

    #1492011
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 9667

    Berkshire Rocco 2nd to both Santiago and English King. Santiago wins the Irish Derby. Roll on next week. :-)

    #1492036
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3635

    What does that mean though in regards to berkshire rocco? What if santiago was not fully revved up for the queens vase? Was his first run of the season and BR’s second?

    i doubt santiago will be the best horse from it he technically speaking only beat a maiden winner by a head ? (Tiger moth will reverse the form nto) but the form has no substance, Forget what the horses in tonights race do going forward, just on form up until tonights race, thats arguably the worst irish derby ever ran?

    Like ive said im not saying EK cant win he might Very well do, but what about anythings hes done makes you think its a penalty kick?

    #1492038
    FinalFurlong91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6663

    Thought it was a pretty terrible Irish derby today to be honest and the English king/Berkshire Rocco and Santiago form line looks on the dubious side to me

    If Santiago was in Obreins top 3 horses he would be running here, one because it looks better on a stallions CV and two because it wouldve given him an extra week to recover from Ascot

    I’m not saying English king cant win, but as someone who doesnt have a nice ante post price hes very much worth taking on

    Also cant see kameko staying the trip strongly enough to win, looking at the stats kittens joy progeny tend to be better over shorter than 1m4f so I’m also happy to take him on

    What that will be with I am not sure, at this stage leaning towards Mogul

    At 10/1 it seems worth gambling that he will take as big a step forward from his seasonal reappearance as Japan did last year

    But I will wait a bit longer until committing

    #1492055
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 9667

    Santiago only ran last week. He would’ve won with no horse near him yesterday if he had the normal time in between races. Only natural that the horse was feeling it in the last furlong after coming through near the back with that acceleration to take it up in the straight. Plus the first and second may not meet again anyway.

    #1492056
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 9667

    Btw i saw a piece on English King’s run in the Lingfield Derby trial regarding sectional timings yesterday. It’s here for your perusal if you’re interested in that sorta thing…

    #1492103
    fivelongdays
    Participant
    • Total Posts 728

    I’m going to take a proper look at this when the declarations proper come out but, as it stands, is there any good reason to discount Pyledriver at his price?

    BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social

    So don't run, just like the others always do

    #1492126
    kris_kin
    Participant
    • Total Posts 92

    Aidan O’Brien says some of his Irish Derby Runners may run at Epsom:

    “It’s very possible. I spoke to John [Magnier], Michael [Tabor] and Derrick [Smith] yesterday and the entries are being made on Monday. They’ll wait to see what everybody thinks before they decide to make an entry or not. If any of them have come out of the race exceptionally well and they want to make an entry, then that’s what will happen.

    I’d definitely fancy Tiger Moth if he ran.

    #1492127
    Frenchy15
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1427

    When we look at the lineup this year and what they have achieved so far, (with the exception of Kameko), it’s way way down on usual years. Horses need to be running about 118 RPR. PyleDriver was rated 110 for his Ascot win on his 6th start.(2nd for the season). No doubt a half-decent horse for that win, his breeding is very poor for the Derby. He has 4 Doseage points and the average Derby winner has 35. The lowest I think it’s ever been is 14.

    The form of that Ascot win is not good either, Arthurs Kingdom was hammered in a poorish Irish Derby and Mogul was blatantly not fit at all. The 5th and 6th best rating is 100 or lower, so that only leaves Mohican Heights, who was probably running on ground less than ideal and was first time out for the season.

    It’s shocking form for a Grp2 and does actually make you wonder how much they need to improve Mogul by to have a chance as well.

    But the main point is that the standard so far on evidence is way down on usual years, which means 1 of 2 things.

    1) This year’s crop of 3-year-olds are all rubbish in comparison to other years

    I think this is unlikely to be the case…

    2) The way the season has unfolded has made it difficult for horses to get ready/fit/trialed and trainers have had a hard time with the same problem.

    This is is easily the most likely scenario for me and means we should focus our attention on the horses we think are most likely to improve a great deal on Saturday.

    I don’t think Pyledriver is one of those horses.

Viewing 17 posts - 188 through 204 (of 388 total)
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