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Really too hard for me right now, but I’ll have one early play…..
https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/1353/newcastle-aw/2020-06-27/759656
My record is patchy in this, but on the shortlist for actual WIN purposes, I’ve only one at the moment, and that’s Themaxwecan. I’m happy to see him jocked up, and 14’s looks good on the back of his Ascot run.
It’s two bigger ones though, who top the shortlist, and even though they look more likely for EW purposes, they’d be the two I’m most interested in right now.
Cosmelli, a former Consolation winner, and Island Brave, who’s made the frame before, both look chucked in, for all it’s never that simple. Cosmelli just shades it at this stage, with a nice prep at the track under his belt, and a 5lb claimer booked.
I’d be interested in being with all three, but for now, I’ll side with Cosmelli on the nose, and hopefully lay some off, as the 25’s looks mad.
Cosmelli 25’s
I saw cosmelli mentioned by Kev on twitter Bobby. Certainly was + is arguably still a big price.
The one i’ll probably side with comes from the in form Alan King- Rainbow Dreamer. He’s off 107, so yes he’s got a fair bit of weight on his back, but that certainly hasn’t stopped horses in this before.
Last year, 101, 100, 103
Year before, 99, 107, 97
2017, 107, 103, 100.So higher weights do run well in this. His trainer won it last year as well with Who Dares Wins, obviously WDWs had a better hurdle mark to ensure he looked better handicapped, but he also had ran close in 3 staying handicaps before, so he didn’t necessarily look really really well handicapped last year. Rainbow Dreamer has been notching up wins over the Winter beating horses like Funny Kid, + then stepped up into Graded company. Ran pretty well there too.
He’ll do for me.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Its an unusual makeup there was 14lbs top to bottom last year and this year Magic Circle has to give 24lbs to bottom weight which I think is because they’ve had a low amount of takers for places across the two races, the consolation race looks dire this year. Ordinarily Australis, Caravan of Hope and Smart Champion would be fighting out favouritism for the Consolation so that makes things tricky for the top weights in the Plate but its balancing out the class edge they have against the potential of those mentioned. Its a proper old fashioned handicap not like the 7lb the field condensed ones you tend to see these days.
Good luck Jack, looks fair pick, and agree TTM, this is one tricky Handicap.
I’m adding Caravan of Hope for win purposes. Seemed smart enough last year, and on that run just behind Australis, looks fair at 8’s. Haven’t bet him yet, will wait for BOG, but if that 8’s looks like going, I’ll try and nick it.
I’ll top up Cosmelli EW to six places, but only if that price holds.
Caravan of Hope
Cosmelli 25’sMy ratings throw up the following top four:
Collide
Rajinsky
Technological
CarnwennanCOLLIDE ran a decent race at Ascot but faded near the finish nad has to prove if he can get this distance. He’s drawn in the car park or, in the case of Newcastle 2 mile start, ‘in the lay-by’ which will not help as he’s a strong traveller who may struggle to get prominent early. Not wihtout a chance but needs things to fall and a bit to prove.
RAJINSKY is lightly raced and progressive, with promising keeping on effort over a mile and half at Newbury in the book this month. Hasn’t yet been tried at two miles but there are strong signs that it will be no problem and hints there may be more in the tank at the extended trip. He’s hold up horse, but box nine draw should allow settling into a reasonable position. This one looks my idea of a strong contender.
TECHNOLOGICAL shows up well on the figures, but has been held by various animals in this race and has a bit to find in this class and comes to it off a long break.
CARNWENNAN has presumably been targeted at this race, won the consolation race last year and has a lot going for him.
On the basis of the above I would go for RAJINSKY as my main selection (generally 14/1) and the danger is CARNWENNAN (generally 7/1, 15/2 with Billy Hill).
Agree with TheTinMan87 that it’s going to be a good old fashioned handicap with huge weight differential between the top and bottom horses. Unfortunately that is very much to the detriment of the consolation race which looks awful…
Cosmelli is the one i’m siding with. He has some good recent runs and i think it’s fair to say his best form comes at the track. He’s running off a feather weight (jockey won’t be able to have a bacon sandwich tomorrow morning that’s for sure) and Gay Kelleway’s comments on Twitter the other day were encouraging regarding the horse’s current welfare. 25/1 on the nose
Another one in the Rajinsky camp here. Has a similar profile to the favourite but is twice the price and could be anything up in trip. AW isnt my bag but each way 6 places worth a dabble from a single figure draw.
Not a lucky race for me but I’ll take a chance with Just Hubert & hope his dismal reappearance will have put him right for this
looks almost impossible to me, i have only definitely ruled out 1/3 of field! so just the 12 left to sort out!
i do think magic circle is overpriced he would pick most of these up and carry them at his best, other than that anything could happen.Kings Advice, one of the early Frankels, ran in and won
some good races last year, the last of which was off 108 in a good handicap
at Goodwood. He’s maybe struggled a bit since, but looked much better when
runner up last time at Donny earlier this month. Just as well he didn’t win
that as he goes into this off 106 and you can bet your boots Mark Johnston
has had this in his sights for some time. I took the 14s this morning, still
plenty 12s about.I had to have a bit of the 100s on Sevenna Star. He was a serious
horse at one time, even running in the Derby. He seemed to have his own idea about
things, and from a mark of 107 2 years ago he’s dropped to 94. Not sure what his
problems have been, but he’s had 2 of them removed (ouch) recently. If that makes
a difference, he might just spring a surprise. I think that 100/1 6 places with
paddy power is worth the risk.I’ve gone with Collide and Glencadam Glory ew. The latter’s reappearance from injury was an OK run and he has won on an artificial surface before.
A proper old fashioned handicap indeed.
Kings Advice and Rajinsky for me here, both on the nose.
Well done Harry Bentley giving up his ride on Limato must have been a difficult decision but what a ride on Caravan Of Hope.
Well done to anyone who backed him.Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Well done VtC…., YET AGAIN!
Rajinsky got slaughtered in scrimaging on the home bend, but kept on for seventh. I’ll get my money back on that one along the way.
Cracking ride by Ben Curtis on Collide to get that one into third place. Got his mount as far up the field early on without using too many reserves and stayed on stoutly without quite getting there. Another that will gain a consolation over this sort of trip.
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