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Think he’ll be made to look more like a Ford Fiesta than a Rolls Royce personally!
Still keen on PTKO for this…I know she was well beaten by CPS last time but that came possibly a bit quick for her after a hard race in the Schloer and as HDB has said the track didn’t suit her. She’s shown a real liking for Cheltenham, so back there with usual pilot Aidan Coleman back on I think she’s got a great chance!
The break will have done her good as she goes well fresh and if she can get in the same rhythm and jump like she did in the Arkle she’ll be bang there…
Am seeing a lot of people on preview nights tipping Altior and I can see that angle too definitely…
Jack…you mention Honeysuckle beating supreme 2nds, champion hurdle 2nds but the point is did they run their race?
Navajo pass beat a two time champion hurdle winner and a Cheltenham bumper winner and very solid yardstick but they didn’t run their races…
It’s all about perception…Goshen thrashes a horse rated 158 and it’s because he didn’t run his race…Honeysuckle thrashes a horse rated exactly the same and she’s the best thing since sliced bread?
As I say, I love Honeysuckle…her record is perfect and her attitude is absolutely top class! The fact is though in 10 starts under rules she’s only ran over two miles three times…she looked impressive last time but in previous efforts has jumped slow and looked like she could be vulnerable at the trip to a good one…it was only 12 months ago she was all out to beat Darver Star who was rated 146 at the time and Petit Mouchoir who has consistently been found out at the top level…even this season she was all out to hold on from Ronald Pump who’s a mid 150’s at best and would need to set off straight after the Arkle finished to be involved in the champion hurdle finish!
And what I meant by the wow comment is out of all the field Goshen is the only one I could see putting in a performance that would leave that reaction…Epatante may win but don’t think it would be anything like Goshen would have been in last seasons triumph…Honeysuckle will finish 3rd at best for me…as game as they come but Goshen and Epatante will leave her going up and down on the spot…
Excellent training performance from Gary Moore with Goshen!
I’ve been camp Epatante for a long time but honestly think Goshen is the one to beat now and come the day when he struts round the paddock and the confidence grows from team Moore he’ll end up going off favourite.
Couldn’t help but dig back to the episode of Luck On Sunday from December when Moore was on talking about Goshen after his disappointment and the heart issue. Listening again to that you could tell the faith was still there and rightly so…there was the obvious heart issue but he also said he went there short of work…hurdles being taken out went against him and he also said they tried different tactics that now with the benefit of hindsight was a huge mistake.
If there’s one horse in this race with the potential wow factor it’s certainly Goshen! I love honeysuckle and her attitude is fantastic but I’ve always had a feeling she’s better over further and would be vulnerable to a class one over a true run two miles. Isn’t that why she skipped this last year and connections were 50/50 again this time round until her last win?
Let’s not forget…as good as her last performance was…her last run over two miles in the same race last year she was all out to beat Darver star and Petite Mouchoir…on a line through those she has a fair bit to find with Epatante and on the evidence of just that one performance last time out I don’t trust the form enough to think all of a sudden she’s a world beater at two miles.
With Goshen on the other hand in two of his last three starts he’s put in two extremely impressive performances and the other we can easily put a line through with the known issues to come from that race.
He would have hacked up in the triumph by a good 15-20 lengths and the placed horses have shown the form to be worthwhile with Aspire Tower now rated 160 and 4th/5th favourite with some for this…Allmankind has won at grade 1 and 2 level over fences with ease on his last two starts, though I’m still unconvinced he’s at his best at Cheltenham and even Navajo Pass who finished 4th in the Triumph and was beaten out of sight yesterday took two decent scalps in a career best effort at Haydock last time out…
Song for Someone may have been a little under par but the same can easily be said of most of the field in the Irish champion hurdle…
Goshen the most likely winner for me..
It’s alright saying what has Shishkin beaten but what have the others in behind him in the betting beaten?
You can only beat what turns up against you but he’s done it well each time with the minimum of fuss, jumping well looking a natural chaser and in quick times too.
Add in to that he was easily the best of these over hurdles then to me he’s about as close to a certainty as you can get…
Must admit, as someone who’s not been blown away by CPS so far, have to say he oozed class today and with Altior looking past his best he’s certainly one they all have to beat now!
Still not giving up hope on PTKO…after Aidan Coleman saying she hated the ground at Cheltenham in the Schloer I suppose the same could apply today as she never looked to be happy, wasn’t jumping well or travelling from early on. Am hoping her liking for Cheltenham, possible better ground and a more forceful ride might close the gap a little and CPS still needs to prove himself at the course…it’s gonna be a tall order but still feel Skybet have over reacted a little pushing her right out to 20/1…
Feel gutted for Ruth Jefferson…she got her horse there in tip top shape and in my eyes was let down by the jock…great ride from Bryony though an excellent round of jumping which won the day..
I’ve seen loads of people around social media question after how he was 20/1 but the fact is so many times before he’s fallen short at the top level winning only once out of 8 attempts at grade 1 level and though there were question marks over many of the field it still looked a strong race beforehand…
Thought Saint Calvados ran a cracker too and looked a blatant non stayer…looks a big Ryanair player after that though…
Stuck a speculative fiver on her a couple of months back at 33/1 so here’s hoping!
My thought process was that there wasn’t any real standout candidates other than arguably Hamilton…
He’s won it before though and although he’s equalled the record of MS it’s based on the achievements of the last 12 months and he’s done what he’s done six times before and he’s driving the best car which is a big contributing factor.
For me what Hollie has achieved in the last 12 months tops that. There may be an element of the equality side of it but there should be…she’s doing fantastically well on a level playing field against men and unlike Hamilton with his car and team, she’s not riding the best horse for the best trainer every race!
Looks like she’s already got a tremendous amount of support building from the racing and equestrian community and to pick up on a point made earlier about those outside of racing not knowing her…
Could that not work in her favour?
Hamilton is unpopular in a lot of circles…O’Sullivan another who’s a bit controversial…the others just cannot win it…
So…if the presentation of her to the people who don’t know her is good…this little pocket rocket lass taking on the boys and more than holding her own in a year of breaking record after record I think she could pick up a hell of a lot of new fans and votes on the night to add to the huge following she’s already got!
Could be a real interesting couple of weeks coming up in regards this race…with Henry De Bromhead set to take on the big two in the market….my fancy for this race Put The Kettle on coming over to Kempton to lock horns with Altior while Notebook set to take on Chacun Pour Soi in Ireland…a couple of cracking Christmas treats there!
Agree on Politologue too…am on PTKO a few times at nice prices but without question the bet in the current market is the reigning champ…could be a bit clearer in a week or two though!
I agree Charlie with DDS!
Been saying this on other platforms…Phillip Hobbs would be crazy not to target this race
Looking through his whole chase record he’s 3 from 7 over the minimum…two of those against UDS, who at 12 was surely way past his best.Over longer trips he’s 3 wins and a 2nd from 4 starts and he really should have won the race he lost…cantering all over Lostintranslation but going for home too soon and being run down late on.
He comprehensively beat Lostintranslation in the JLT jumping and travelling really well…watching that race back and some of the poor efforts he’s put in over two miles it’s a real head scratcher why they’re not going down this route.
If campaigned for this he’d be my banker of the festival..
The two grade 1’s Min has since won have been over two and a half miles though because he’s not as good at two miles…which is why he won’t be running in this.
He beat Min by less than an 11 year old UDS did two runs before…
I’ve just a feeling he’s not as good as they think he is…Christmas might tell us more…
Agree on PTKO think she’s got a terrific chance in this…she’s got a few lbs to find on official ratings but she keeps on finding improvement, she jumps well and goes well at the course…also proved last time she can pull it out on ground she didn’t like.
Altior would be the one to beat were he to get there and be fit but there’s obvious question marks there…
Just don’t get the buzz with CPS? I can see why they shortened the price but can’t see why he was favourite in the first place! Has no course experience and I thought he jumped poorly on the whole the other day…compare his round of jumping with that of Shiskin, a novice who was having his first start over fences and they’re leagues apart!
I’d hate it to happen as I’ve an 8/1 price about Shiskin for the Arkle but if Altior doesn’t make it and CPS is the perceived best I’d readily take him on if I was NH…
Funny how we all see things differently…thought today was an excellent showing from CDO and pushing Bristol, who is outstanding at Haydock all the way…think he’s as close to a certainty as you can get for Boxing Day.
I honestly think he could have another two races before Boxing Day and still beat Cyrname…
Paul Nicholls might aswell supplement TommyTucker as I can see this being a 3-4 horse race at best and a breeze for Clan with 2nd place up for grabs…
Very disappointed with Lostintranslation too…is it the stable form? Thought there was light at the end of the tunnel with a few recent winners, though lots are still running really poor…or could he be another who just doesn’t recover from a big gold cup effort?
If Hobbs can’t see now that the Ryanair is the race to aim him for he might aswell hand his license in at the end of the season!
Brilliant from the Mare though…I’d have her as favourite for the Champion Chase now..
Always fun to try and look ahead a year in advance at what looks a decent punt…tough with the novices and the stars like Envoi Allen as it’s tough to know how he’ll be campaigned…
3 I really like the look of at the moment at the prices though with a little reasoning…
Put The Kettle On – Champion Chase (25/1)
Think that’s an outrageous, and insulting price to be honest! Thought she was terrific and has got any amount of improvement in her…rated only 144 going in she jumped really well and shows a great attitude to knuckle down and get the job done…beat a decent one in Fakir and put the rest to the sword in no uncertain terms…is 2/2 at the course and that’s a huge advantage going into any festival. I’ve a feeling because she was unfancied for the race and trained by Henry De Bromhead and not Willie Mullins she’s getting under valued…looking at the rest of the market…Altior will be 11 and what sort of campaign will he have….Defi for me will get stepped up in trip…Chacun still hasn’t got the 2 mile form in the book to be a quarter of the price with also no course experience for me so 25’s looks a huge price..
Honeysuckle – Mares (4/1)
Could be a real investment horse throughout the year because I can’t see her being aimed at any other race than this again…hasn’t got the speed for two miles…on a line on her win over Darver Star she’d have a fair bit to find with Epatante and Goshen could be absolutely anything…unless it really, really cut up badly I don’t see any way how she’ll be aimed at a champion hurdle…she beat Benie this year (many people’s banker) and I think she would confirm that running but have a feeling Benie may go up in trip anyway and be aimed at the stayers or maybe even tried chasing…the Mares novice winner did it nicely but I think she’d be way behind Honeysuckle on form and think steadily backing regularly at 4/1 could turn out a great investment…
Defi Du Seuil – Ryanair (20/1)
The race I thought he should have gone for this year…Was a great move from Hobbs taking advantage of Altior not being around to take the Tingle Creek and Clarence House but ran as I expected in the Champion Chase…ok, maybe a bit below but I was always massively against him! Am hoping Hobbs forgets any ideas of going for it again and starts to build on that excellent JLT victory of last season beating Lostintranslation and step him up for a challenge of the Ryanair….if he starts next season over further and skips the top two mile races 20’s could be huge!
Thought Dynamite Dollars ran a cracking race but my fear would be replicating that huge effort again in a month after a year off and on 3lb worse terms…so for Cheltenham I would readily back Sceau Royal to confirm those placings…
Just my opinion Jack…Sceau Royal has some very good form over two miles, especially on good ground…he’s twice finished 2nd to Altior travelling really well and just failing against the best two miler of the last 3-4 years…he was placed in last seasons champion chase on ground probably slower than what he’s shown his best on and was over 7 lengths in front of Min in that race…that’s 3 or 4 lengths more than CPS finished in front of him…
Un De Sceaux is 12 now and if Sceau Royal ran against him on good ground and they were both even money who would you back?
As yet Defi hasn’t faced a horse the quality of Altior..Sceau Royal has and hasn’t been far away three times so looks a lot more solid to me.
I did say if it was decent ground…because that is Sceau Royals preferred conditions and in my eyes not what DDS is at his best on…33/1 for me is a cracking each way price for a horse with a solid looking profile even if he might find one or two too good…I’d also throw in there that the Alan King stable has been in real poor form lately so if they come out of that bad spell for the festival he could improve again…
I still personally believe beating Sceau Royal in the manner he did on decent ground is a better piece of form than either of DDS or CPS has achieved yet!
The suggestion he wants further when his record over two miles is flawless is absurd to me? As the old saying goes…if it ain’t broke…his strength has always been how he finishes his races and on Saturday proved in emphatic style that is still the case…
And to answer an earlier point regarding ground for DDS…I know his trainer says ground isn’t an issue but his chase record would suggest otherwise to me…he’s won 6/9 and the three he’s been beat in were all on better ground…at shorter trips he’s been beat both times on decent ground so to me he’s not as good as when it’s really testing…
I’m not the biggest fan of CPS as I think he lacks experience, has never run at the course and has been beaten by a two and a half miler but if it was decent ground I don’t see DDS reversing last seasons Punchestown form and I’d readily back Sceau Royal ahead of the pair of them if it’s decent ground…