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Must say I’m really surprised they haven’t left him in the Ryanair too to see what the ground is like because surely on good ground he’s in all sorts of trouble?
They say it was a weak renewal last year but if the ground comes up decent I’d back Sceau Royal and Politologue both before Defi…
That’s how I see Defi and his trainer did too…Hobbs has always said he thinks he’d be better over further that’s why he was campaigned like he was last year…the natural progression from that JLT win would have been a crack at the Ryanair which I believe he would win comfortably on any ground.
What has happened though is Altior was stepped up in trip and talked of as a King George, possible Gold Cup contender before taking on Cyrname and Hobbs spotted an opportunity and fair play to him on that it’s worked out. If you watch interviews with him he says as much about going for those races because Altior wasn’t there.
What’s happened now though with the failure of stepping up in trip and Altior showing Saturday that he’s still a class operator at two miles, Hobbs has a massive decision to make! He said in an interview the other day that he’s not sure whether Altior is back to his best and he may need further evidence to believe he is but where on earth is that going to come from now?
The way I see it is it will be massively dependent on ground…if it’s a really dry week and it’s decent ground I think it’s a near on impossible task for Defi to bear Altior, and arguably finish in front of CPS… and I think deep down Hobbs knows that….if it’s really testing ground then his chance greatly improves and I think he’ll be more than happy to give it a shot…I still think he’d get beat though!
And Jack…
The last two champion chases have been run on soft ground and Un De Sceaux was nowhere to be seen! Yes, on his day he’s ran some excellent races over two miles on soft ground.
I think the clue to him being slightly on the decline at 12 was finishing just under 5 lengths in front of the 143 rated Marracudja last time! Whatever you think of the controversy afterwards with the handicap mark, that is clear evidence he’s not the horse he was (in his favoured ground) and to me highlights the couple of easy tasks DDS has had in the absence of Altior…
Great to see Altior back to doing what he does best…definitely the one to beat in this now…his record as a two miler is flawless!
For all the talk of him being past his best and the new kids on the block much tougher opposition, are they really?
Defi Du Seuil has only dropped to two miles this season because Altior has not been in the top two mile races. In the Shloer chase at Cheltenham he beat Politologue half a length less than Altior did in last seasons supposed sub par champion chase and was getting 3lb into the bargain…just to back that form line up Simply Ned was just over 6 lengths away again giving DDS 3lb…that’s 3 lengths closer than he got to Altior yesterday off level weights.
The last twice he’s beaten a 12 year old who’s been considered too slow for the champion chase for the last three Cheltenham festivals…we had Waiting Patiently closing rapidly in the Tingle Creek…no doubt a talented horse on his day but has no real top level form as a two miler….then last time, yes much more impressive but the closeness of Marracudja to Un De Sceaux surely shows how good he now is as a two miler…that’s before you even get started on looking at his chase record run on decent ground!
Then you have CPS…beaten on return by A Plus Tard…yes I get that Mullins doesn’t always have them tip top first time out but come on…could you see Altior ever getting turned over by a two and a half miler like APT? And last time beating Min…is that not just a similar…or lesser standard of form to Altior given that horse has never got within 7 lengths of Altior?
As far as I can see…one is flawless as a two miler and all the question marks surround the other two…
Yes I think he’d have to, especially if it’s decent ground. I thought the comment from Henderson about no horse being able to live with Altior’s pace was kind of aimed at Hobbs and deep down he knows it I think..
Totally agree with Mike regarding DDS…I’m convinced the Ryanair is his for the taking! I could see him maybe nicking this if Altior doesn’t run but if he comes out and wins well on Saturday I think this is his for the taking!
You have to question the last two wins of DDS over a 12 year old Un De Sceaux who’s best years are surely behind him and we’re as a genuine two miler a few years ago…the 3rd home in both those races would surely back that up? Then you look at his two efforts over two miles on better ground and he’s been beaten both times…last season at Punchestown comfortably by CPS and on his chase debut finishing last of 5 at Cheltenham. The only way I see him winning this is if Altior doesn’t run and if it’s really soft ground.
I couldn’t have CPS either beaten on reappearance by a two and a half miler and looked to be going up and down on the spot late on last time beating another two and a half miler…
I just can’t see any way how he will get far enough away from Altior to be able to repel him up that hill…
I took the 7/2 Altior the other day and hoping he comes out Saturday and shows his well being…if he does I just don’t see him getting beat in this…
The difference there though is Santini goes there off a career best and should come on again 2nd run after a wind op, whereas Lostintranslation has to put a major disappointment behind him!
I was sweet on Lostintranslation for so long but I’d be worried going straight to Cheltenham after that King George effort…I know they said it was his breathing but for me it was a jumping error that made him stop like he’d been shot.
At similar prices I’d much prefer to be in the Santini camp…
I like how some are impressed with Al Boum Photo beating an out of form 10 year old rated 152 by 6 lengths…while others are unimpressed by Santini comfortably beating a multiple grade 1 winning chaser rated 170 with over 30 lengths back to three horses rated 164, 158 and 156 who all turned up off the back of career best efforts…all this while not jumping well…
Imagine if he puts in a good round of jumping in March!
As you might be able to tell…yes, I was impressed…think he’s a proper Gold Cup horse and he’s my first decent bet for this years festival…
Does need to jump a bit better but I think he can and that was a very good win yesterday in my eyes…
I’d prefer to judge her on her chase form and her form this season which is excellent and far superior to anything else in the line up. You can dress stats up any way you like…here’s one for you…small fields seem to suit her…today is a six runner field…her record in races with 6 runners or less reads 11111111…
I think she’s a good thing today…
Has to lead, has to dominate, hates having other horses around him?
Did you not watch this years Betfair Chase?
Native River, and to a little extent, Might Bite, pestered him the whole way round! Native River was nearly always within half a length, a length and in fact jumped to the front and headed Bristol De Mai at least three times throughout the race…
He didn’t lead and dominate when winning the Peter Marsh….he didn’t when winning the Charlie Hall…
I agree with Steeplechasing though…at 40/1 he could be hugely overpriced!
I’m not sure what the issue with him is, but one thing is for sure…if he turns up and puts his very best in then 40/1 is silly really…
We know he loves Haydock and that is a very specialist track in my eyes but he has ran well at other tracks too in the past…
I think there may be a little something in arriving fresh…it’s ok him winning the odd time throughout his career off a short break but the demands of the Cheltenham festival is completely different..I always thought The New One ran his best festival races when being a bit fresher but NTD continued to run him and bottom him out at Haydock year after year!
Completely outpaced in the Betfair Chase…really? He was just beaten by a horse that is a freak at that course…he had the last three King George winners behind him and at no point did any of those three go past him easily and outpace him!
The King George is a race I would seriously put a line through as far as Native River is concerned because right from the first fence he was never travelling…no idea what went wrong that day but he never travelled all the way round and jumped nowhere near as good as he can…
Cheltenham is a course that plays to his strengths much more and he’s the one they all have to beat for me..
I still can’t believe he’s not favourite!
Thought it was a terrific performance personally and I can’t see anything to touch him in the Supreme!
Absolutely cantering coming to the last and Sam has just got into him after the last to keep him honest…love the way he responds with ears pricked and giving his all….with the Cheltenham form in the bank already and rapidly improving every run he’s my bet of the week so far
Thought Simon Rowlands summed the race up pretty well…was a joke of a pace…nearly a hurdle behind the Pertemps final in parts…a slow run race certainly helped the suspect stayers in that ground…surely the key horse to that fact is the 3rd Wholestone who although goes well at Cheltenham doesn’t really see out a true run three mile race?
Jockey inexperience was one of the negatives people were pointing out beforehand though and I think it proved costly to Sam Spinners chances…he needed to go a good clip and make it a proper test…
Watching what Richard Johnson did in the gold cup should show him what he should have done…brought stamina into play to run the finish out of the flashier types…
Hope he gets over it and hope the horse can prove he’s better than that 5th…Simon Rowlands seems to think he could still be the best out of this race going forward..
Some great tipping on this thread, well done all who did well…think I’ve had my worst festival ever! Went for the first time in 25 years of being a fan…the two days I went Thu/Fri the only race I profited from was probably the least popular race of the whole week, the mares novice…the rest brought a complete blank! Put 5 lucky 15’s on yesterday on the coach on the way…1 win one and 4 each way to try and spread my chances about a bit and didn’t have one winner or 1 place…not 1 winner backing in every race at the course either…a complete nightmare! Had a great time still, experiencing my first live festival and all set to do it again next year!
The wife on the Thursday had 4 winners and a 66/1 place and she pays no attention to racing whatsoever…maybe there’s something in that…
Would be 16/1+ wouldn’t he…probably over 20/1?
Good stone at least to find with the best of these…beaten comfortably in the Albert Bartlett by Penhill rated 150…
Just can’t see any angle into backing Penhill at 10/1…
The way I see it is Sam Spinner brings in the best recent form…he’s improved significantly every run this season and last time out ran to a rating of 164…
I’d say it’s highly likely for a young, improving horse, especially with how comfortably he won last time, to find at least another 6lbs and run to a mark up to the 170’s…
That would leave the 150 rated Penhill needing to find 20lbs improvement when he’s not been seen on the track and had an injury that’s kept him out for 10-11 months..add to that no Albert Bartlett winner has ever won the stayers the year after I just don’t see it..
This race has developed a little more depth since Christmas but with a few I think it’s a case of plan b after considering the size of the pot…I still see Sam Spinner as the bet of the week though and though I don’t see any way how he’s ground dependant, if the ground does come up on the softer side it increases his chances big time and he’ll shorten a fair bit for me!