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Surely, surely, surely Twister will finally drop his years-long delusion that The New One can win a Champion Hurdle. For the past 2 seasons, he has blindly and bitterly pursued his belief that TNO is entitled to a CH win after his misfortune (a relatively mild one, in reality, but savagely blown up in Twister’s mind as having cost the horse the race) behind Jezki.
TNO will be 10 next year and there’s a fair chance his big festival opportunity has gone, but his chance of a Stayer’s Hurdle win is much, much greater than is suggested in his Betfair price of 65 so I’ve taken a wee bit of that.
This remarkable horse won today on his seasonal debut for the 7th time in succession. He holds his form unbelievably well despite the fact that something is probably niggling him and causing him to go right at his hurdles (he’s been doing so for at least three seasons). I like NTD as a trainer, generally, but he’s done himself, and, more importantly, this horse, a serious disservice with his CH obsession. Give it up, Nigel, please and let The New One have a final crack at festival glory in a major race.
NTD has said that The New One won’t feature at the Cheltenham Festival at all unless it is soft. The horse is not the most sound nowadays and doesn’t jump or quicken properly on spring ground. He also looked a non-stayer at beyond 2m 4f last season.
Stable tour quotes suggest he’ll continue pothunting the minor trials and conditions races and might make raids on France and Ireland this season. Prize money valued above G1s at this point in his career.
All sounds logical and wise to me.
The World’s End is the one for the stayers, by the way.
Love reading your posts steeplechasing, you’ve clearly forgotten more about NH racing than I’ll ever learn but couldn’t have TNO for the Stayers myself. A horse on the way down, not certain to stay the trip, and jumps right on a left handed track.
Soldier, whatever twister says about this horse and the festival don’t trust him. TNO has been at every festival since he began racing and I’d be astounded if he misses what is likely to be his swan song there.
And heed not the supposed non-staying evidence. Twister guts the poor horse in the CH every year and he needs months to recover. The horse is a stayer and always has been. As a novice he was touched off in desperate ground over an extended 2m4f at Cheltenham. At Fisher’s Cross beat him a neck. Twelve back was Coneygree and in 4th Whisper. He will stay all right given the right prep.
Frankie, I’m not saying he will win. Big chance probably gone. But he is no 65 chance. Wouldn’t have much on but that’s more because of the trainer than the horse.
I think I read or heard somewhere before this year’s festival (possibly STD talking in C4 studio?) that NTD and his sons disagreed about TNO’s 2017 Cheltenham target. The sons wanted him to run in the Stayers but dad wanted another crack at the CH. Dad did what he was set on doing but did say to the sons that if he didn’t win the CH, they could have their way in 2018 and he would run in the Stayers. Which struck me as not a great deal- right boys you can have your way when the horse is a year older and there is a risk he would be on the downgrade. If he does happen to be on the downgrade by then, he will lose the Stayers and NTD can sit down at the family dinnertable and say he was proved right.
Uknowhatimeanharry is 8/1 in a place
Think that’s value bearing in mind he should be at his peak now and the race is his only target at the festival.
First Cheltenham antepost bet for moi
I’m with you on that MOM, he’s a real favourite of mine. I mentioned in the Cheltenham
Bets 2018 thread, back in August, that I had bagged him at 12/1 at the end of March. He
nearly broke my heart at the Festival this year, he just wasn’t right that day, but he
couldn’t have done any more right throughout the year. Hopefully he stays fit and can pull
it off next year
I spent all year looking for one to beat him but then when it came to Cheltenham, even though I had no proper financial interest in the race other than an interest bet, was willing him on.
As you say, he wasn’t right on the day and I was delighted to see him go off at 4/1 at punchestown a few weeks later. Crazy price.
Think he should be shorter for Cheltenham even at this stage.
Good luck with that 12/1 bud. Cracking price
Been chipping away at Bacardys to win any race, with the JLT and RSA both being possibilities. He didn’t look natural on his chasing debut however and ended up a pretty tame 3rd. In his stable tour Willie Mullins highlighted his jumping and did open up the possibility of reverting back to hurdles with him. He’s 33/1 in a couple of spots and, given his last run, that could be worth chancing for this.
Given Yanworth is struggling to adapt to fences I think there’s every chance he could revert to Hurdles. I think his battling qualities would lend themselves well to 3m. I’ve had a few pounds on Nicky Henderson’s L’Ami Serge. 3 miles seems to be his trip as a good result in Auteuil in a grade 1, last time out, would seem to suggest. Henderson has confirmed this as his target so he’s definitely one to watch. Currently 16-1.
Yanworth as a bet to lay might work because we know he’d go off shorter on the day if he did line up here.
I can’t help but think though that he might want a bit of cut to really be at his best and his last two Cheltenham Festival performances seem to have been slightly disappointing on the back of his winter form.
Nichols Canyon was a pretty cosy winner of this last year and I wouldn’t be in a rush to oppose him at 6/1. Equally I think he might lose one or two in heavy ground this winter and he might even touch 9 or 10/1 so I’d wait until then to back him I think. Spring ground horse
A satisfactory start for L’Ami Serge at Ascot today over 2 1/2 furlongs. 2nd to Lil Rockerfellet who is a good benchmark and not given a hard race. I am happy with that as his first step of the season to the Stayers Hurdle. Defi Du Seuil was very disappointing. It will be interesting to see what Hobbs says after that flat performance.
L’ami Serge also, great first start from him giving 6 lb to the winner. 16’s seems very fair indeed.
Sam Spinner is certainly a unique one. I think I’d need to see him a few more times and see some more progress first. It would be good to see him repeat that performance outside of a handicap. Big margin wins when carrying a light weight on heavy ground can often be misleading. Definitely one to watch though.
Very happy with that today, had Sam Spinner ante-post 11’s, as that was a fine performance at Chepstow.
Got him for Cheltenham at 200’s to 240’s, and laid off after the race at 16.5’s to go nice and green. Won’t go mad on this race now, but very happy with that.
I’m not convinced he’ll progress that far, but chuffed to bits anyway.
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