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I don’t think Penhill is a plot myself after hearing what Patrick Mullins said about him in the Cheltenham Preview show. Said the plan wasn’t to go straight there but we are where we are. Implies he’s had a problem or 2. Its a big ask. Not impossible just a big ask.
If he’s a Bloom plot, the yard will be well warned to give nothing away. Bloom is a serious gambler.
I think Penhill will win a few good races on the flat this year if he goes that way. The owner was talking about a tilt at the Melbourne Cup as well.
Lovely horse Penhill but I’d have wanted a prep run and decent ground to back him, he’s not going to get either.
Just can’t see any angle into backing Penhill at 10/1…
The way I see it is Sam Spinner brings in the best recent form…he’s improved significantly every run this season and last time out ran to a rating of 164…
I’d say it’s highly likely for a young, improving horse, especially with how comfortably he won last time, to find at least another 6lbs and run to a mark up to the 170’s…
That would leave the 150 rated Penhill needing to find 20lbs improvement when he’s not been seen on the track and had an injury that’s kept him out for 10-11 months..add to that no Albert Bartlett winner has ever won the stayers the year after I just don’t see it..
This race has developed a little more depth since Christmas but with a few I think it’s a case of plan b after considering the size of the pot…I still see Sam Spinner as the bet of the week though and though I don’t see any way how he’s ground dependant, if the ground does come up on the softer side it increases his chances big time and he’ll shorten a fair bit for me!
Out of interest, what would people have a horse like Monalee priced at in this if he was running over hurdles still?
PS i understand the horse hasn’t run in open company yet so hard to know, but say he reverted back suddenly?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Would be 16/1+ wouldn’t he…probably over 20/1?
Good stone at least to find with the best of these…beaten comfortably in the Albert Bartlett by Penhill rated 150…
I agree with Zamorston; Sam Spinner looks the bet of the week to me unless there’s a boilover. The likes of Supasundae, TNO & Yanworth are all doubtful stayers IMO. The winner of this is usually a horse with proven stamina and with the ground likely to be no better than gd-sft on Thursday I can’t see any reason to oppose SS. Unfashionable trainer/jockey combo hopefully will mean his price won’t melt, particularly if the rain keeps falling.
A good jockey doesn't need orders and a bad jockey couldn't carry them out; so it's best not to give them any.
Sam Spinner is starting to look more solid on the ground and 7/2 is probably a fair enough price. The main cash is on Yanworth (6/1) who does have some top form on a bad surface and a line through the best of his form puts him above the rest here. It’s just if he can produce it today.
Just had a look at the Long Walk again and Sam Spinner had plenty in the tank. He could beat these a long way out on today’s ground. It’s going to be a difficult decision for the other trainers/jockeys in the race as Sam isn’t a proven world beater but could well be just that. So, do you take him on and get burnt or do you stalk from a little way back and risk the chance of winning the race because other prominent jockeys got it right?
The one negative for me about the fav is I can’t remember a single winner at this festival that has been right at the front all the way. The runner up in the bumper ran a great race from the front and Coo Star Sivola went to the lead far enough out but is that about it?. Maybe with the new course it will be a different story today and tomorrow.
Don’t be silly lads, a plot is getting a 150 rated horse a mark of 130 and winning a handicap. You don’t “plot” to win a stayers hurdle. Your either the best or you aren’t.
I think Sam spinner is not going to win. Supasundae might not stay. Bacardys, the new one, unowhatimeanharry are my fancies but I won’t be betting in the race.
Am sure Jessie is now regretting not supplementing Supasundae for the Champion Hurdle – not sure to stay this trip in the ground. Ditto Twister with The New One and with other prominent runners here may well jump even more right-handed than usual. Stable companion Wholestone on the face of it has place pretensions, but appeared to struggle to get home in truly run 3 mile races. Colins Sister has been beaten by Wholestone, stamina at a premium may well help her but needs to find quite a bit. Yanworth‘s laziness may well enable him to stay, but this will still be a much sterner test of stamina than Aintree. So with his two main rivals having stamina doubts Sam Spinner should be 5/2, not 7/2, would be a bet with a big “B” if I wasn’t already on @ 6/1. Unowhatimeanharry will stay and worth a bet. I backed him at 13/2 ante-post, then laid him back at a bigger price when owner-companion Yanworth came in to the reckoning. May be age is catching up with UNWIMH, possibly regressing, but confidence has come back and stable in better form now. Backed him again to win half my usual profit. I’d be happy that Bacardys would stay this trip in ordinary conditions, if staying on this very soft surface could improve quite a bit for his in form trainer; like Yanworth has been switched from fences. I don’t like Mullins’s Penhill, ex-flat horse who won the Albert last year in totally different ground and not been seen since… and Augusta Kate doesn’t look up to this. Lot made of her 5 1/2 lengths second to Presenting Percy, but only beat Diamond Cauchois a length. Let’s Dance was soon struggling as joint fav in that race. She won the uncompetitive Mare’s novice last year and they’ve reached for the cheek pieces. Worlds End hasn’t gone on since taking a bad fall when coming with imo a winning challenge in the Albert last season. Lami Serge is hard to price up. Looked to be going better than Sam Spinner at the last at Ascot, but these two have contrasting temperaments. Sam always finds plenty where as Lami shirks the issue. Latter rarely a good win only bet but one to be interested in place only. Donna’s Diamond beat a long way below form odds-on Agrapart last time out and looks outclassed here. Old Guard beat Lil Rockafeller in the National Spirit at Fontwell last time. However, OG is far less likely to be suited by this increased test of stamina. In fact, Lil was runner-up – only beaten on the run-in – in last year’s Stayers Hurdle. Slight injury since then. I may be a bit biased having backed him at the end of last season for this, but have tried to look at him afresh. Unlike a lot of these will love this test, should imo be around the 16/1 mark and he’s 50’s on the machine! I’ve gone in again!
Value Is EverythingDon’t be silly lads, a plot is getting a 150 rated horse a mark of 130 and winning a handicap. You don’t “plot” to win a stayers hurdle. Your either the best or you aren’t.
Yes, you can. If the horse is best fresh and/or you send the horse back to the owner to look after it for a while. Who knows what the horse recieves at home.
Value Is EverythingDon’t be silly lads, a plot is getting a 150 rated horse a mark of 130 and winning a handicap. You don’t “plot” to win a stayers hurdle. Your either the best or you aren’t
In plots, the rating is incidental. The objective is to get the biggest price possible.
I’ve backed Unowhatimeanharry, but have sentimental money on The New One and Lil Rockerfella. Two of my absolute favourite horses in training and might not be able to contain myself if they are thereabouts turning for home.
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