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I hated Yanworth as a chaser. At least he’s in the right race now.
I have a feeling L’Ami Serge is the value each day here.
He loves the festival, he finally showed some enthusiasm to battle last time over fences at Doncaster and he’s running over the correct trip.
He may not win but his consistency in top races at Cheltenham makes him a good each way bet at 12/1 in my opinion.
I agree re: L’Ami Serge. Is the only value bet in the race for me. According to connections comes alive at this time of year, I know he’s a bridle horse, but battled to the line over fences last time. His run in the county last year also backs up my theory that he does have a battle in him. In a wide open race I can see him swinging off the bridle between the last two, and on better ground I think he finds plenty. I’m not saying Supansundae and Sam Spinner aren’t classy horses as they obviously are, I just think he is the classier and on better ground I believe that will show through.
Patrick Mullins interviewed about some thoughts for Chelt on sportinglife twitter- Bacardys worked at Curragh last few days and pleasing him…so presume he goes there, not ideal prep but atleast he’s going. I like the horse….wouldnt be a backer currently. Townend will ride i presume?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I think he’s just a strange horse in general, not sure i’ve seen too much “shirking” finishes or anything? Doesnt find a pile, but finds enough? I mean he’s 8 from 10 over hurdles..
His Festival form wouldn’t worry me at all, champion hurdle run ok it was terrible, but you could argue it was just the wrong race in general for the horse. As you mentioned, he had a good run behind Yorkhill, in my opinion Yorkhill had plenty up his sleeve, but still you can see the other side of the argument where BG went the furthest way round….
His bumper run here as well was a decent fourth..So i wouldn’t be too worried about the hustle bustle.
Also, his overall course form is pretty strong too, wins-wise.I am not really sure i will go into the depth you have, in considering the noise, its very hard to put a finger on how any horse will react to this. You could argue Yorkhill is even more unreliable as a horse than Yanworth in terms of doing the unpredicatable and thus couldn’t thrown both his races away becasue of the noise?
I like Sam Spinner as a horse, but Supasundae has some greater question marks for me, and also, Yanworth has him covered on Aintree.
Yanworth was a long way below his Kingwell Hurdle form in the Champion. Former not testing stamina as much as the latter, so there’s no reason why he shouldn’t have done just as well at Cheltenham as Wincanton. Therefore, nothing to do with race distance/”wrong race”. There is no difference between the quality of Yanworth’s 2m and 3m form. Indeed, he’s yet to race in a truly stamina sapping 3m. Aintree was a comparitively slowly run race on goodish ground around a flat track. imo He should get a propper 3m test, but it’s not certain – ditto Supasundae.
No, Yanworth’s 2017 Cheltenham performance was nothing to do with race distance. Didn’t say it was a “good” run in the Neptune. I believe he would not have beaten Yorkhill, possibly could’ve been a little closer but even so wouldn’t have run to his (then novice) best… And although “8 from 10” over hurdles that can also be taken negatively. ie Two defeats both coming at the Cheltenham Festival… And that’s the point about “temperament”. Had he ran to form while getting beaten there wouldn’t be a problem. imo Probability of atmosphere or noise of the Festival getting to him.
Also, if having a look at Yanworth’s Aintree Stayers; you’ll see Barry having to pull out all the stops (for which he got a whip ban)… And then his last time out performance; looked to be going clear in strides after the last before idling really badly. If there was a better horse than Sizing Tennessee in second may be he’d have found more, but may be he’d have been passed if the second had been finishing more strongly and/or a better jockey (Cooper should’ve challenged wide – away from Yanworth).
It’s not that Yanworth is “shirking”, I agree that would be unfair – just gets “distracted”.
Value Is EverythingNot sure all of this is strictly true…..You’re saying his 3mile form is no different to his 2mile form…on the basis of one run over 3miles…I think that’s a bit quick to be making assumptions?
Also, faster pace in Champion, tougher on a horse lacking fluency over hurdles….giving him more chance to make mistakes compared to the Kingwell. Some say the faster pace will help them, but i am not sure that’s the case here….as he still jumped deliberate and awkward.
He does run terribly in the Champion, but we are talking about a race vs the tip top, likely to be fluent and slick over their hurdles…Yanworth aint that and he proved that jumping high, at angles and also hitting atleast one.
You are judging Yanworth at Cheltenham on 1 bad run there, whilst hes ran well twice?
Didn’t say it was a “good” run in the Neptune
Correct you said wasn’t bad, my mistake..i am not sure that made a huge difference to things
I agree he wouldn’t have beaten Yorkhill and that on RPRs he hasnt run to as high a level to his beating of Shantou Village….still not a terrible run, and not showing he can’t handle the atmosphere of the festival?
he’s also run in the hustle and bustle of the bumper, which has to count when your talking about the atmosphere, he ran pretty well there too…..
BG is pulling out all the stops, and the horse has put a length between him and SS, he didnt look finished either, after the line he was pulling for his head..probably indicates he has more in the tank….that last run was over fences and he jumped plenty of them awkward, finished the race “dossing” but “pulled out more when the other horse came to him” suggests to me, he just does enough in his finishes….A stronger jockey might’ve made a difference to Sizing T who knows? i don’t, you don’t for certain either if Yanworth is “dossing”….ifs and buts.
For me, Yanworth is a strange horse, not one i’ve taken to in the past, but back over hurdles, i think at the prices, he’s a better bet than SS and has plenty of class..
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Fascinating horse, Yanworth. Have never backed him but I enjoy trying to work him out, although I doubt I’ll ever succeed. I suspect he is capable of quite a bit more than he has shown. If he ever gets into a rhythm and maintains it throughout a race, I’d love to see the result.
Not sure all of this is strictly true…..You’re saying his 3mile form is no different to his 2mile form…on the basis of one run over 3miles…I think that’s a bit quick to be making assumptions?
Not “making assumptions”, Jack; everything for me is about probabilities – as you know. It is true though, the form as it stands is his 3m race is no better than 2m. Yes, you make a good point that it is possible Yanworth is still unexposed at 3m, having only one run at the trip, so could yet improve for 3m. However, as I said – there is also the fact Aintree did not test his stamina anything like this race should. imo Way Yanworth runs suggests to me he’s equally effective at 2m and 3m, therefore far from certain to improve at this distance.
Also, faster pace in Champion, tougher on a horse lacking fluency over hurdles….giving him more chance to make mistakes compared to the Kingwell. Some say the faster pace will help them, but i am not sure that’s the case here….as he still jumped deliberate and awkward.
He does run terribly in the Champion, but we are talking about a race vs the tip top, likely to be fluent and slick over their hurdles…Yanworth aint that and he proved that jumping high, at angles and also hitting atleast one.
Some horses jump better at slower speeds/longer trips, but Yanworth did not jump any differently at his first try at 3m… And his jumping of fences didn’t exactly get any better once stepped up from 2 to 2 1/2.
You are judging Yanworth at Cheltenham on 1 bad run there, whilst hes ran well twice?
Didn’t say it was a “good” run in the Neptune
Correct you said wasn’t bad, my mistake..i am not sure that made a huge difference to things
I agree he wouldn’t have beaten Yorkhill and that on RPRs he hasnt run to as high a level to his beating of Shantou Village….still not a terrible run, and not showing he can’t handle the atmosphere of the festival?
he’s also run in the hustle and bustle of the bumper, which has to count when your talking about the atmosphere, he ran pretty well there too…..
No, I am not judging Yanworth on just the 1 bad run, as punters we can take other things in to account. Neptune “wasn’t bad”, but it was still below his best form. Champion was a lot worse and the Champion is more recent than Neptune. Horses do change over time and little traits tend to get worse through a horse’s career. Therefore wouldn’t take what the 5 year old Yanworth did (Bumper) as meaning much. Chase runs far more important…
BG is pulling out all the stops, and the horse has put a length between him and SS, he didnt look finished either, after the line he was pulling for his head..probably indicates he has more in the tank….that last run was over fences and he jumped plenty of them awkward, finished the race “dossing” but “pulled out more when the other horse came to him” suggests to me, he just does enough in his finishes….A stronger jockey might’ve made a difference to Sizing T who knows? i don’t, you don’t for certain either if Yanworth is “dossing”….ifs and buts.
For me, Yanworth is a strange horse, not one i’ve taken to in the past, but back over hurdles, i think at the prices, he’s a better bet than SS and has plenty of class..
Point is at Aintree he had to be hard ridden (too hard ridden) to win; because yes he was idling. It’s a trait that’s getting worse – possibly due to his squiggle sire Norse Dancer. Like father like son? Last time out also idled badly. You’re right, you don’t know and I don’t know if that type of thing will make the difference this time areound. However, we don’t need to know. What I am saying is that particular “unknown” must be taken in to account when assessing the price am willing to take. ie Form of the three at the head of the market is imo very similar ability-wise. Just that with the other two, Sam Spinner and Supasundae have no temperament flaws. Therefore, although I wouldn’t be surprised if Yanworth won; personally I’d have the other two shorter than him in the market.
Value Is EverythingI don’t take my betting that serious, and don’t beat myself up over losers, but the one that still annoys me is Yanworth for The Champion Hurdle last year. What was I thinking?
Back for more, and I took the 7-1 on him for this
Added
lil rockerfeller 25s & 20s
Lami serge 19s
The new one 50sWas who i had taken way back on the first couple of pages,
Lami serge my main bet for this, fairly happy to let them roll, think ittl suit him more and more especially with the likes of sam spinner out front.
Will probably back lami again on the day, should get a better price than whats available atm
My point about the distance and jumping was more relating to, as Yanworth is a clumsy and an unfluent jumper, 3 miles will allow him to stay with the field easier than over 2miles in a champion.
Good points Ginge, i respect Sam Spinner the most of the other front 2. However, i think both have quite a few question marks over them also!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I think I’m going to do the old reverse forecast in this: Sam Spinner will make the running; the only one he won’t shake off by the last is Yanworth. The only question is will the latter want to go past his rival- he has the ability but does he have the inclination?
I find it difficult to have a strong opinion and I keep flip flopping. You can make a case for around 10 of them.
Already got involved in ‘the worlds end’ for this. Im a bit dissappointed with the weather as i really think its a good ground horse. Not sure if shes a confirmed runner but i’ve got stuck into ‘La Bag au Roi’ as a back up. Greatrex loves this horse and isn’t totally ground dependant. She’ll be in receipt of the 7lb from the boys if she turns up for the gig. Vastly improved again this year now stepped up in trip. Could go for the Mares but i’ve taken a chance that this is the destination.
I think we’ll see a massive performance from Yanworth here. There is no doubting that this horse has the engine, and he’s needed 3m for a while now. I think this race is going to really suit him, and have backed him accordingly.
Please don’t balls it up Barry
I am not sure Penhill will win this but at 10/1 NRNB you could not be confident of any horse winning it.
I keep looking through Penhill’s form and seeing good horses finishing behind him. In a pretty open looking affair I’ll stick a few quid on and if he runs well I’ll be pleased enough. Nothing really fills me with too much confidence.
Sam Spinner is clearly on the up and Supasundae defeated Faugheen but Yanworth looks a bit of a rogue to me.
I’ll give Penhill the chance to finish best and win this one.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’ve gone from hot, to cold, but I’m warming up again to prospect of UNOWHATIMEANHARRY
still having a say in this. I know it could be said that I’ve got rosy specs when it comes
to this one, guilty as charged, but I don’t think there’s anything in the race that would
probably have got him off the bridle at his best last year, and therein lies the nub. Has
he held any of that form ?, well from his runs in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury and
the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot last time out, on the face of it the answer would be that
it’s doubtful at best. Having said that, I don’t think it’s that straightforward. The Long
Distance Hurdle became a hugely tactical affair, with Harry simply hanging onto the tail
of Thistlecrack, and by the time the pair of them realised, they had allowed Beer Goggles to
run away with it. Once the penny dropped with Geraghty that Thistlecrack wasn’t the danger,
he made an effort but it was too little too late. The Ascot race was more of a worry, either
he has had his day at the top or he just wasn’t right. Sam Spinner looked impressive, and I’d
have him as favourite for this, I’m not sure either Yanworth or Supasundae will appreciate
having to live with Sam Spinner who will go off from the start and make it a proper test of
stamina. I think Harry Fry did the right thing by giving Harry time to get back to himself, if
he can, and not run him in the Cleeve. It might be asking a lot to expect him to be back to his
best at 10, but it was only last April where he ran a blinder and turned the table on Nichols
Canyon who had the beating of him in the Stayers at the Festival. Barry Geraghty said he didn’t
feel right at Ascot, so if he can be forgiven that one, and if Harry Fry can manage to get him
as fit and well as he can, I think he is the value in the race at the moment at 14/1. I’m having
some of that.Just blogged:
Back in December The New One was a ‘strongly recommended’ bet on this blog for the Stayers at 25/1. He’s half that price now and I’m hoping the old horse can win it, as much to crown his career as anything else.
But since December the race has changed shape quite a bit as Yanworth has been sent back to hurdling to contest this, Sam Spinner won the Long Walk, and Supasundae beat Faugheen 6 weeks ago. The race looks a good deal more open now and I decided to take a fresh look at it.
The one I think could shorten dramatically in the market – especially if the ground steadily dries as we move toward Thursday – is Penhill, trained by Mullins, although it’s his owner who has piqued my interest as much as anything else.
Penhill won the Albert Bartlett last year in the most taking style having been dropped out in a race run at an uneven pace. Making smooth headway approaching the second last, he was forced very wide there by the fall of The World’s End. Jockey Townend was unperturbed as he tacked back over to join the principals battling toward the last where he took it up and scooted away to win comfortably.
He finished 2nd at Punchestown the following month, perhaps feeling the effects of Cheltenham, and there was speculation that he might run on the flat in races like The Melbourne Cup. But he hasn’t been seen since. He had entries at Ascot in June as well as that Melbourne Cup entry. In August his owner reported he had sustained an injury in training and that ‘it does not look good’. I can find no mention of what the injury was nor any comment by Mullins on it.
What I do know is that the same owner, Tony Bloom, had another promising horse who didn’t see the track for almost a year before having a nice prep run over too short a trip. Three weeks later he was backed from – if memory serves – 12/1 in the morning to 5/1 fav by the time he had hacked up in the Cesarewitch: Withhold is his name, and I wonder if Mister Bloom has been withholding Penhill so he can have another mighty crack at the bookmakers. Bloom has a reputation as a big gambler.
I might be putting 2 and 2 together and making 5, but Penhill has just one entry next week – The Stayers Hurdle. Mullins reports him as doing well in training. I smell a plot here and will be backing him for half stake at 10/1 under antepost rules (money lost if he does not turn up) and the other half at 8/1 NRNB with Bet365 who also offer best odds guaranteed.
In fact, given that owner’s report of an injury in the summer, it’s probably wiser to sacrifice the 2 potential points and just take the 8/1 NRNB. If Tony Bloom smashes into the ring on Thursday morning, Penhill will go off a fair bit shorter than 8s.
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