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In 1st post of Cheltenham bets i put up APPLE’S JADE at 12/1 she drift a bit out to 14/1 so got on that.Intresting that plan has change was going for a mares race that Limini beat her last season but instead going 3m race over christmas.If she wins that i expect Elliott and co to change there mind and head here instead of the mares race.Do not see a horse out there who can give her weight over 3m and a beating.
I think Apple’s Jade would have to win the race over Xmas convincingly to then consider this. And personally I think as this Nichols Canyons trip it’s going to be a proper battle next week.
Elliott said she’s running that race at Christmas rather than the 2m as she has a better chance of winning that.
He said it makes no change to the plan of the mares race. He’s so adamant that she won’t run in the Stayers that it’s unlikely he would change his mind no matter how far she was to win at Christmas.
As I said months ago, the smart bet is Uknowhatimeanharry. Into 6/1 now.
I don’t fancy Harry for the Stayers after backing him last season. Will be 10 next year and others may well improve past him. Nichols would be my choice out of them 2. Then you got Apples Jade as a maybe,
Penhill, and even Yanworth and Thistlecrack could be in the mix depending on how their next chases go.
Others could yet show their cards on Saturday too.It’s boring and not particularly creative but I think 6/1 on Nichols Canyon is the best shout at this stage. He is 7 going on 8, and this will surely be his target. Plenty of others at the top of the market will not go.
lol Joe, he better.
Really really pleased with Sam today, but been here before many times, and always ends in Glorious Failure. Not going to stop me enjoying that though, and that was some buzz today, really enjoyed that.
More convinced than before that L’ami can win the Stayers now. He certainly wont be giving them a head start there. He does not need to be ridden that way, if you look at his County hurdle run he started off in midfield and came with a flying sustained run from way before the last, and got nutted by Arctic Fire. You can see the winner, Beers Goggles and Lil Rockerfeller cutting each other throats at Cheltenham.
Might well be wrong, but 16/1 is a very fair price as it stands.
I couldn’t have been more impressed with Sam Spinner and I make him my best bet of the festival so far! I’m going this year Thu/Fri too so he is the horse I will back every week now until the race.
I just love his attitude and the way he gallops…travelled like a dream yesterday and jumped the last superbly which is always nice to see. Joe Colliver only had to shake the reigns a bit and hit him once and he put another couple of lengths between him and L’ami Serge…
For a 5 year old to go from winning a very competitive handicap in terrific style to blowing away a large percentage of the top current staying hurdlers tells me he’s a bit special…
I think Cheltenham and the hull will bring out even more improvement and I just don’t see anything in the division to touch him…
If he was trained by a Henderson or Nicholls, on what he produced yesterday he’d be at least half the price he is now!
Great for us northerners to have such a horse to get excited about!
It was a terrific run Zamorston but that hill can find out odd’s on favorites like their ordinary. Keep that in mind
“ if he was trained by a Henderson or Nicholls, on what he produced yesterday he’d be at least half the price he is now! “
Mostly because they have proven time and again they can produce horses in the form required to win races at the festival.
“ if he was trained by a Henderson or Nicholls, on what he produced yesterday he’d be at least half the price he is now! “
Mostly because they have proven time and again they can produce horses in the form required to win races at the festival.
That’s another stat that doesn’t paint a fair picture, Mark.
Because Nicky and Nich’ have so many top quality horses over the years, many of their string can run poorly and they can still win with plenty. Although I do believe Hendo has a particularly good record, small trainers like O’Keefe only have one bullet to fire; if that ONE fails people wrongly think the small trainer can’t produce horses for the big day. Think Byrnes and Greatrex for Stayers Hurdle, Culloty and Bradstock Gold Cup, John Carr Champion Hurdle, Gary Moore and John Joseph Henry Champion Chase. Yes, small trainers are sometimes a bit less consistent with their horses, but depends a lot on the horse. Sam Spinner has been very consistent so far. Small trainers don’t have many top quality horses between them, but the ones they do have seem to win the number of races I’d expect.imo Sam Winner is a cracking bet @ 6/1. At least as good a horse as the others at the top of the market and seemingly the only one still improving.
Value Is EverythingMore convinced than before that L’ami can win the Stayers now. He certainly wont be giving them a head start there. He does not need to be ridden that way, if you look at his County hurdle run he started off in midfield and came with a flying sustained run from way before the last, and got nutted by Arctic Fire. You can see the winner, Beers Goggles and Lil Rockerfeller cutting each other throats at Cheltenham.
Might well be wrong, but 16/1 is a very fair price as it stands.
On “form” (quality of horse) yes 16/1 appears value. But I’d be more inclined to back Lami for a place only nearer the day, Botchy. Thought after his two wins at Sandown and Auteuil he’d turned a corner. Less attractive now, seemingly giving the race away. Be surprised if he’s ridden any differently, can’t hit the front late enough. Cheltenham acoustics/noise of the crowd making things even harder for his jockey. Although may be a back to lay option (back at 16/1 now and lay in running at say 4/1) could be an alternative? Like to see him tried in ear plugs.
Value Is EverythingSupasundae 16s is value. Has the right profile, good form and hopeful of a big run tomorrow.
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