Stayers Hurdle 2018

Home Forums Archive Topics Cheltenham 2018 Stayers Hurdle 2018

This topic contains 300 replies, has 51 voices, and was last updated by  moehat 1 year, 7 months ago.

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  • #1332642
    CharlesOlney
    CharlesOlney
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    True Mike, and before yesterday only the mighty Relkeel had managed to win the International Hurdle as a 10 year old since Bird’s Nest in 1980.

    #1332704
    steeplechasing
    steeplechasing
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    All those who fancy TNO for the stayers need to look at this stat.
    All of the last 30 winners were aged 9 or younger. :mail:

    Age probably the leading ‘stat’ for giving stats a bad name. How many horses older than 9 ran in the race? What was the % representation?

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #1332709
    MarkTT
    MarkTT
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    About 10 of the last 90 runners were aged 10 or older ( a quick guesstimate based on 60 seconds on Wikipedia )

    #1332721
    steeplechasing
    steeplechasing
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    I have figures for the last 20 runnings in which the age group in question made up 11.4% of the total.

    At a glance, in the three runnings 2011/12/13 only one of that age ran – the 50/1 chance Powerstation.

    I’ve mentioned here before that Paul Jones, who arguably started the whole stats thing with his Weatherbys Festival guide, did a fair bit of damage to his reputation in 2008 by saying that the first group to rule out in The Supreme were 7-y-olds. I fancied Captain Cee Bee (7) so dug a bit deeper and found that a ridiculously small percentage of that age had even run in the race. Just checked back – 10% representation for that age in the quoted timeline, oddly close to this one for the Stayers.

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #1332784

    darren83
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    In 1st post of Cheltenham bets i put up APPLE’S JADE at 12/1 she drift a bit out to 14/1 so got on that.Intresting that plan has change was going for a mares race that Limini beat her last season but instead going 3m race over christmas.If she wins that i expect Elliott and co to change there mind and head here instead of the mares race.Do not see a horse out there who can give her weight over 3m and a beating.

    #1332891

    Mike007
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    I think Apple’s Jade would have to win the race over Xmas convincingly to then consider this. And personally I think as this Nichols Canyons trip it’s going to be a proper battle next week. :yes:

    #1332923
    Middle_Of_March
    Middle_Of_March
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    Elliott said she’s running that race at Christmas rather than the 2m as she has a better chance of winning that.

    He said it makes no change to the plan of the mares race. He’s so adamant that she won’t run in the Stayers that it’s unlikely he would change his mind no matter how far she was to win at Christmas.

    As I said months ago, the smart bet is Uknowhatimeanharry. Into 6/1 now.

    #1332929

    Mike007
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    I don’t fancy Harry for the Stayers after backing him last season. Will be 10 next year and others may well improve past him. Nichols would be my choice out of them 2. Then you got Apples Jade as a maybe,
    Penhill, and even Yanworth and Thistlecrack could be in the mix depending on how their next chases go.
    Others could yet show their cards on Saturday too.

    #1332945
    charlie87
    charlie87
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    • Total Posts 781

    It’s boring and not particularly creative but I think 6/1 on Nichols Canyon is the best shout at this stage. He is 7 going on 8, and this will surely be his target. Plenty of others at the top of the market will not go.

    #1333727
    steeplechasing
    steeplechasing
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    Looking good, Bobby. Better hope Twister sends The New One to the Champion again!

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #1333780
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 15795

    lol Joe, he better.

    Really really pleased with Sam today, but been here before many times, and always ends in Glorious Failure. Not going to stop me enjoying that though, and that was some buzz today, really enjoyed that.

    #1333809
    botchy1
    botchy1
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    More convinced than before that L’ami can win the Stayers now. He certainly wont be giving them a head start there. He does not need to be ridden that way, if you look at his County hurdle run he started off in midfield and came with a flying sustained run from way before the last, and got nutted by Arctic Fire. You can see the winner, Beers Goggles and Lil Rockerfeller cutting each other throats at Cheltenham.

    Might well be wrong, but 16/1 is a very fair price as it stands.

    #1333815
    Zamorston
    Zamorston
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    I couldn’t have been more impressed with Sam Spinner and I make him my best bet of the festival so far! I’m going this year Thu/Fri too so he is the horse I will back every week now until the race.

    I just love his attitude and the way he gallops…travelled like a dream yesterday and jumped the last superbly which is always nice to see. Joe Colliver only had to shake the reigns a bit and hit him once and he put another couple of lengths between him and L’ami Serge…

    For a 5 year old to go from winning a very competitive handicap in terrific style to blowing away a large percentage of the top current staying hurdlers tells me he’s a bit special…

    I think Cheltenham and the hull will bring out even more improvement and I just don’t see anything in the division to touch him…

    If he was trained by a Henderson or Nicholls, on what he produced yesterday he’d be at least half the price he is now!

    Great for us northerners to have such a horse to get excited about!

    #1333819
    charlie87
    charlie87
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    It was a terrific run Zamorston but that hill can find out odd’s on favorites like their ordinary. Keep that in mind

    #1333829
    MarkTT
    MarkTT
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    • Total Posts 2603

    “ if he was trained by a Henderson or Nicholls, on what he produced yesterday he’d be at least half the price he is now! “

    Mostly because they have proven time and again they can produce horses in the form required to win races at the festival.

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