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Terrible news about Nichols Canyon. RIP
I expect Apples Jade to run here now. Even though I’ve backed her for the mares already
She’ll run in the Mares for sure. Today was only about prize money and about the battle for the Trainers Title. They will always take the easy route in March
Terrible news about Nichols Canyon. RIP
I expect Apples Jade to run here now. Even though I’ve backed her for the mares already
She’ll run in the Mares for sure. Today was only about prize money and about the battle for the Trainers Title. They will always take the easy route in March
I hope so. I really really hope so.
As one of my multiples is a Yankee Of Apples Jade (Mares), Altior (Champion Chase), Samcro (Neptune) and Apples Shakira (Triumph).
Why would Apple’s Jade run here?
The O learys have already said she will run in the race where she has the best chance of winning. That is clearly the mares hurdle. She didn’t win convincingly enough today to do the switch so likely to be the mares in my view.
“ if he was trained by a Henderson or Nicholls, on what he produced yesterday he’d be at least half the price he is now! “
Mostly because they have proven time and again they can produce horses in the form required to win races at the festival.
That’s another stat that doesn’t paint a fair picture, Mark.
Because Nicky and Nich’ have so many top quality horses over the years, many of their string can run poorly and they can still win with plenty. Although I do believe Hendo has a particularly good record, small trainers like O’Keefe only have one bullet to fire; if that ONE fails people wrongly think the small trainer can’t produce horses for the big day. Think Byrnes and Greatrex for Stayers Hurdle, Culloty and Bradstock Gold Cup, John Carr Champion Hurdle, Gary Moore and John Joseph Henry Champion Chase. Yes, small trainers are sometimes a bit less consistent with their horses, but depends a lot on the horse. Sam Spinner has been very consistent so far. Small trainers don’t have many top quality horses between them, but the ones they do have seem to win the number of races I’d expect.imo Sam Winner is a cracking bet @ 6/1. At least as good a horse as the others at the top of the market and seemingly the only one still improving.
I was making no statement on O’Keefe’s ability as a trainer but the odds on Henderson and Mullins horses will always be shorter odds in comparison due to their fantastic record at the festival. It’s an indisputable fact.
If a certain trainer only has one top class 2 mile novice hurdler and their sole target is the Supreme, then that horse should be in fantastic condition for that race. However, year after year after year, these decent hurdlers at the smaller yards fail to run to their mark, whilst Henderson can get two in the first three.
However, year after year after year, these decent hurdlers at the smaller yards fail to run to their mark, whilst Henderson can get two in the first three.
imo You’re wrong, Mark. Small trainers often have plenty of horses with good enough form only to be on the outskirts of Grade 1 races; but not many real top class horses. But the real top class ones they do have win their fair share… Hendo may be the exception to a degree, but bigger trainers have their share of disappointments too. Just that with their number of top class horses it’s not so noticeable. One disappointment from a small trainer’s one top class horse and punters notice. tbh Same arguement could’ve been used before Solwhit, Cole Harden, Lord Windermere, Coneygree, Sublimity, Sire De Grugy and Newmill won their Grade 1’s.
Sam Spinner really is both top class and consistent. No reason why he should be less likely to run to form than any other.
We’ll have to agree to disagree.
Value Is EverythingInteresting race shaping up, feels like one to be betting in too.
Sam Spinner is deservedly fav as he looks a few lbs ahead of the cluster of 160ish horses like Unowhatimeanharry, Supasundae, The Worlds End, L’Ami Serge, Apple’s Jade and the late Nichols Canyon. Still, Joe Colliver is something of a liability in the saddle and I’m inclined to dig around for options.
Bacardys did jump better over fences today before his fall, though I wonder if this will convince connections to revert to hurdles. If so, his novice form is as good as anything. Given the track record of Willie Mullins, I’m hardly living in hope of a definitive quote, but any sign of a change of plan would make me back him.
Bacardys did jump better over fences today before his fall, though I wonder if this will convince connections to revert to hurdles. If so, his novice form is as good as anything. Given the track record of Willie Mullins, I’m hardly living in hope of a definitive quote, but any sign of a change of plan would make me back him.
I thought his jumping was awful yesterday. Cant remember how bad it was last day but it was poor yesterday. A switch back to hurdles would make sense.
Killutagh Vic entered to run on Sunday over hurdles at punchestown 2.5 miles.
Might be aimed at this
With Apples Jade not going to run and Nicholls Canyon tragically no longer with us this race is look horrendously weak. It won’t rain enough for Sam Spinner, Supasundae just isn’t good enough and we all know L’ami Serge just won’t go past a leader. Who knows where Penhill is? And Harry’s form has fallen off a cliff.
I have no idea if The New One would stay but personally I think they’ve waited too long.
I just don’t think anything is going to win but the issue there is that something has to!
Don’t see where you’re coming from with it won’t rain enough for Sam Spinner Charles?
From all I can gather the yard think he’ll be better on better ground? They were certainly worried going into Haydock whether he would handle that testing ground…he handled it really well but travelled like a good un on the gd/sft at Ascot last time…
Don’t personally see any concerns at all with the ground he will go on anything…
Sad news yesterday by the way with Nichols Canyon, always sad to lose one..the only horse I’ve any worry about now for Sam is Penhill…him not being out yet had to be a negative though..
It is true that Sam Spinner’s relationship with ground condition is up for debate but his form shows that his 2 defeats have come on the best ground he’s ever raced on (good-soft, good in places).
He deserves to be clear favourite and may well win despite conditions looking at the detriment in opposition.
It’ll be interesting to see how Wholestone gets on in the Relkeel. He finished just behind Sam Spinner at Chepstow when conceding a lot of weight before not really enjoying himself the last twice. He cold yet bounce back to form and throw his hat into the ring. I think he’s the type to come up short personally.
Sam Spinner a thoroughly likable, improving horse who’s a worthy favourite at the moment. It’s hard to see where the opposition will come from. Looking through the market, Lami Serge is probably not the worst e/w bet at 14/1. No sign of Penhill, Supasundae shy of this grade for me, Apples Jade supposedly going for the mares race, Unowhatimeanharry looks on the downgrade.
Sutton Place a non runner over fences on Thursday. If he doesn’t get out for a run soon I wonder would connections consider keeping his novice status for next season, would be of major interest here.
Sutton Place needs soft ground it seems, pulled due to ground AFAIK and very fragile.
Why is Supasundae below the grade, In a weak Stayers, when he got to half a length of AJ in ground slower than ideal?
Hard to know what to make of the form of Supasundae’s win the other day? With the sad fall of Nichols Canyon it left a question mark for me…is Apples Jade as good over 3 miles than shorter? Bapaume wasn’t that far back in 3rd and isn’t the greatest…
On Supasundae’s form over here at Cheltenham and Aintree on a line through Taquin Du seuill I’ve got him needing to find quite a bit with Sam Spinner on Ascot running…I know TDS probably didn’t give his true running there but there’s form he has with ‘Harry’ that also says he’s plenty to find with Sam…
Killultagh Vic won over hurdles today and whilst he looked ring-rusty over the obstacles to win first time out, having been out such a long time, is impressive nonetheless. I just wonder whether Mullins might aim him here with him. He’s currently price up at around 14-1.
Mullins quoted as wanting him back over fences NTO.
Taking Taquin’s form as a middle man for form is dodgy for me, but I see where you’re coming from.
The 3 miler the other day was slow run hence Bapaume being so close in behind.
Thought Wholestone ran well yesterday, but not sure he truly stays a stiff 3 miles.
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