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However, year after year after year, these decent hurdlers at the smaller yards fail to run to their mark, whilst Henderson can get two in the first three.
imo You’re wrong, Mark. Small trainers often have plenty of horses with good enough form only to be on the outskirts of Grade 1 races; but not many real top class horses. But the real top class ones they do have win their fair share… Hendo may be the exception to a degree, but bigger trainers have their share of disappointments too. Just that with their number of top class horses it’s not so noticeable. One disappointment from a small trainer’s one top class horse and punters notice. tbh Same arguement could’ve been used before Solwhit, Cole Harden, Lord Windermere, Coneygree, Sublimity, Sire De Grugy and Newmill won their Grade 1’s.
Sam Spinner really is both top class and consistent. No reason why he should be less likely to run to form than any other.
We’ll have to agree to disagree.
I’m not wrong because the proof is in the results and you’ve taken something I said and extrapolated it into something else.
Sam Spinner would be a shorter price if he were trained by Henderson, Nicholls or Mullins and for very good reason.
It’s in situations like this – and, for example, Brindisi Breeze – that we find value in underrated horses.
I’m not wrong because the proof is in the results and you’ve taken something I said and extrapolated it into something else.
I’ve made a point that is completely relevent, Mark. We’ll leave it there.
Value Is EverythingFinians oscar going back over hurdles with here the target. They have made a right mess of him this season.
From Racing Post
“We’re going to switch back to hurdles for the rest of the season, with the aim being to run in the Stayers’ Hurdle,” said trainer Colin Tizzard. “He jumps fences adequately but I don’t think he’s that brave.
“If he doesn’t nearly win the Cleeve we might go back to the RSA or JLT – and it might not hurt him to have a run over hurdles before returning to fences in any case – but the Cleeve and the Stayers’ is our view and what will probably happen.
“I need to look after him. I don’t want to run him in a big race over fences at Cheltenham when there’s a possibility he could shake them up in the Stayers’ Hurdle. On last season’s hurdles form you’d have to think he could be a major contender as well.”
Tizzard, who said he plans to enter only Finian’s Oscar in the Stayers’, added: “I’m sure at the moment all trainers are keeping all their options open.
“I don’t think for one minute the Stayers’ will be an easy race, but there’s also no reason why any number of horses won’t switch back from fences to have a go at it. Once a horse goes chasing he doesn’t have to stay chasing for the rest of his life.”
Hmm, that’s very interesting from the Tizzards there. I think if they don’t believe he’s ready for something like the RSA or the JLT then I’d rather hear they’re going to either bypass Cheltenham and target Aintree or pull up stumps for the season all together.
With Stayers looking very winnable indeed, I can obviously see the thinking behind this and at 12/1 NRNB it might be a good idea just to have a little investment on the boy. After all, if he won’t turn up unless a bold performance is put in at the course in 3 weeks time then what’s to lose?
While its true they have handled him very poorly this season, it was probably the right decision to bring him back over hurdles, and he certainly goes there with a real live chance.
If Penhill doesn’t make it to the festival and Bacardys gets rerouted here, we know he has Finians Oscar covered on novice form, the 20/1 is tempting.
For me he should have been allowed to take his chance in the rsa/jlt at cheltenham. If it didnt pan out theres the aintree hurdle and 3m hurdle at punchestown.
He doesnt seem to be able to committ to one plan. A few weeks ago the plan was 3m after the 2m debacle (which he should never have run in) but he ran him over the intermediate distance anyway. Then it was the RSA. Now its the cleeve hurdle with the stayers hurdle. But if he doesnt win the cleeve its back to chasing perhaps for the jlt/rsa. Tizzard just seems like he doesnt have a clue what to doReally silly decision, are they of the thinking that he has a stone of improvement over hurdles than he did last year? Hes hardly showin improvement over a fence and its not jist his jumping thats been poor, hes been all over the place, tailed off in this, ill place lay on the day, this race is stronger than they think, theres a fair few improvers in this field, he wont beat supasundae either… whats the point lol
Should have just minded him and ran him in the rsa….
Suprised at this.
Doesn’t strike me as an out and out stayer.
JLT looked his race to me. Backed him after he won at the track a while back for any race at 9/2. Didn’t envisage him in this one though that’s for sure.
Great decision.
Although my pocket might not feel the same way if beating my ante-post bets. Jumped fences poorly in his last two chases and for all we know is probably doing the same at home. If jumping similarly in JLT or RSA might have got injured or even lost his life. Second to Bacardys made Finian’s Oscar one of the top novice hurdlers. Still had plenty of potential over smaller obsticles when having attentions switched. Yes, has a stone to find in order to win the Stayers Hurdle, but that only means around 7 lbs improvement to find in the Cleeve before the same in the big one – possible.Value Is EverythingEntirely possible, highly highly unlikely, it was more than just his jumping the last twice.
Obviously it was also the trip at Sandown, Ham; 2m too short. But Ascot was imo totally his jumping. Despite giving 5 lbs and several mistakes almost beat Benatar who’s a pretty good chaser. A good round of jumping would’ve seen FO an easy winner.
Value Is EverythingConfidence probably all over the shop aswell, was only 2 weeks between Sandown & Ascot. Thought he should’ve been give 3-4 at least to get over the trouncing at Sandown before running again.
Staying hurdles may make the man of him but not sure myself now. Love the horse but think Tizzards campaign may have ruined him for this season at least.
Tizzards are becoming difficult to work out and they’ll now go in my notebook alongside Mullins as far as antepost goes.
That’s not to say they are wrong here. Finian’s Oscar has a big engine and he is a bit of a scaredy cat over fences. You might see him celebrate being back over hurdles in the Cleeve with a joyful performance that pushes him towards favouritism here.
Looks like Yanworth will turn up here too imo, with King ‘seeking permission’ from JP to enter him. He could be very interesting at this trip and is a horse I’m becoming fascinated with. Never backed him in my life but he has buckets of talent. The big question is will his quirks fade or strengthen? His fencing technique is fine but the horse cannot settle himself into any kind of rhythm, certainly over fences. I suspect he won’t be much more rhythmical back over hurdles; he goes on and off the bit as though he has an accelerator pedal that Geraghty is idly dabbing as he checks his twitter account.
Building up to be some race. Pity that old Twister still cannot shake off his Champion Hurdle obsession with The New One :(
Of course the trip was too short at sandown no denying that, but connections were not worried by the trip, the manner of his performance to my eye was more than just the trip, was well outpaced after 3 fences, a former grade 1 hurdle winner over the distance 10 months before should still have been able to atleast get to 2/3 out before being outpaced, quick turnaround may be the reason he was beaten by benetar, but again connections felt he was more than ready for the race
Id be slightly worried hes not as good, bad campaining is also a factor in that,
Wont be surprised if they go cleeve then straight back to the rsa
Of course the trip was too short at sandown no denying that, but connections were not worried by the trip, the manner of his performance to my eye was more than just the trip, was well outpaced after 3 fences, a former grade 1 hurdle winner over the distance 10 months before should still have been able to atleast get to 2/3 out before being outpaced, quick turnaround may be the reason he was beaten by benetar, but again connections felt he was more than ready for the race
Id be slightly worried hes not as good, bad campaining is also a factor in that,
Wont be surprised if they go cleeve then straight back to the rsa
That particular “grade 1” 2m Tolworth hurdle was nowhere near the standard of this particular Henry VIII. Former also run on softer ground. Given the pace of the race he got outpaced at exactly the point I’d expect. The time horses are “outpaced” depends entirely on where pace is fast, in the Henry VIII scetionals show they quickened along the back straight – travelling even faster than a true 2 mile pace (something like true 1m6f pace) – and that came after Finians Oscar had been less than fluent early-on. So no, he should not have got 2/3 the way before being outpaced in this particular race. Connections might have thought him capable of 2m pace – possibly deceived by that Tolworth. But many of us were rightly very sceptical of FO’s speed before the Henry VIII.
Value Is EverythingTizzards are becoming difficult to work out and they’ll now go in my notebook alongside Mullins as far as antepost goes.
That’s not to say they are wrong here. Finian’s Oscar has a big engine and he is a bit of a scaredy cat over fences. You might see him celebrate being back over hurdles in the Cleeve with a joyful performance that pushes him towards favouritism here.
Looks like Yanworth will turn up here too imo, with King ‘seeking permission’ from JP to enter him. He could be very interesting at this trip and is a horse I’m becoming fascinated with. Never backed him in my life but he has buckets of talent. The big question is will his quirks fade or strengthen? His fencing technique is fine but the horse cannot settle himself into any kind of rhythm, certainly over fences. I suspect he won’t be much more rhythmical back over hurdles; he goes on and off the bit as though he has an accelerator pedal that Geraghty is idly dabbing as he checks his twitter account.
Building up to be some race. Pity that old Twister still cannot shake off his Champion Hurdle obsession with The New One 🙁
Yanworth’s jumping of hurdles isn’t perfect, but at the moment it is better than over fences. Seems to me only sensible Alan King should enter him in the Stayers Hurdle. I believe the trainer wants to run Yanworth again before the Festival to give more experience of fences; but if falling or jumping poorly there, or if jumping poorly at home… then this will be the obvious choice. Particularly if as it appears JP’s Unowhatimeanharry’s age means he’s now on the downgrade.
Value Is Everything
Although my pocket might not feel the same way if beating my ante-post bets. Jumped fences poorly in his last two chases and for all we know is probably doing the same at home. If jumping similarly in JLT or RSA might have got injured or even lost his life. Second to Bacardys made Finian’s Oscar one of the top novice hurdlers. Still had plenty of potential over smaller obsticles when having attentions switched. Yes, has a stone to find in order to win the Stayers Hurdle, but that only means around 7 lbs improvement to find in the Cleeve before the same in the big one – possible.
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