Stayers Hurdle 2018

Home Forums Archive Topics Cheltenham 2018 Stayers Hurdle 2018

This topic contains 300 replies, has 51 voices, and was last updated by  moehat 1 year, 7 months ago.

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  • #1328664

    Cheltenham Novice Chase
    Participant
    • Total Posts 302

    Sam Spinner is certainly a unique one. I think I’d need to see him a few more times and see some more progress first. It would be good to see him repeat that performance outside of a handicap. Big margin wins when carrying a light weight on heavy ground can often be misleading. Definitely one to watch though.

    #1328671
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 15795

    Very happy with that today, had Sam Spinner ante-post 11’s, as that was a fine performance at Chepstow.

    Got him for Cheltenham at 200’s to 240’s, and laid off after the race at 16.5’s to go nice and green. Won’t go mad on this race now, but very happy with that.

    I’m not convinced he’ll progress that far, but chuffed to bits anyway.

    #1328690

    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2276

    Good job vtc! Nothing better than having a green book this far out!

    #1328696
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 15795

    Thanks Ham, very happy.

    Conscious effort to cut down on the “books” this year, as although everything went right last year, it ain’t always that easy, and I won’t add much more now, if anything to this race. Good position though,and I’ll lay half of what I have on Sam, over the coming weeks, so I’ll make sure it pays it way.

    #1328697
    steeplechasing
    steeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5709

    Nice one, Bobby. SS looks most progressive

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #1328699
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 15795

    Yeah Joe, spotted him last year, as he was one of the better ones from one of my systems, and that Chepstow run confirmed that. Big ask to progress to winning this, but happy enough tonight anyway.

    #1328889

    gman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 33

    Can not help but think Thistlecrack is value at 14/1 at the moment. Obviously returning over hurdles which he didn’t do last year. Can see a couple
    Of outcomes.

    1)Beats ykwimh and given his problems and the fact he’s just beaten one of the favourites they choose to stay over hurdles.

    2)Runs well or beats ykwimh and declared all systems go for king George. I think KG is much stronger race this year as it stands and can’t see him winning. At this point after losing the KG would they really then expect him to win a gold cup. Could easily see him reverting to hurdles.

    3) runs well next week, wins king George and gold cup and I get back in my box.

    Anyway new member so be nice.

    #1328959

    Cheltenham Novice Chase
    Participant
    • Total Posts 302

    That’s an interesting thought Gman. It hadn’t occurred to me that Thistlecrack might revert to hurdles on a permanent basis and I can see the logic. His jumping was edge of the seat stuff last season often taking off too early and just making it to the other side. As a backer it would have driven me bonkers.

    If he did and he retains that same engine, which I can’t see why he wouldn’t, then that would really shake up the market. I’m no veterinary expert but my understanding is tendon injuries are much more difficult to come back from unaffected so I think I would need to see some evidence of his recovery before wading in but if he does revert to hurdles then 14-1 would be a massive price.

    #1328970
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 15795

    Welcome to TRF Gman

    #1330876

    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2276

    Funny market as of now and the front two are definitely beatable at this stage anyway.

    Added
    lil rockerfeller 25s & 20s
    Lami serge 19s
    The new one 50s

    #1330903

    Cheltenham Novice Chase
    Participant
    • Total Posts 302

    I totally agree Ham, it’s a very odd market. I’m staying right where I am with a bet on L’Ami Serge. I’ve never been totally convinced by unowhatimeanharry neither did I buy Harry Fry’s post Stayers Hurdle analysis that the horse ran ‘flat’, that ubiquitous phrase rolled out by a trainer when his fancied runner loses.

    I’m not sure what Lil Rockerfeller has done wrong to be + 20-1. That seems a good alternative bet to me. It would be great to see the New One win and whilst my heart would love to see it my head says otherwise. I think he missed his opportunity which was last year.

    Perhaps this is the year in which the baton is passed to an up and coming younger horse. Good luck with your bets, particularly L’Ami Serge.

    #1330923

    atthepost
    Participant
    • Total Posts 203

    Nichols Canyon at 7/1 is very fair in what is a weak division. Apples Jade could win this but it is now likely she will run in the Mares.

    NC wasn’t even 100% right last year and still won. He’s a multiple grade 1 winner and still relatively young for what he has achieved. Most under rated horse in training FACT.

    Have lumped on at 7s. Good luck all

    #1332573
    steeplechasing
    steeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5709

    TNO running out of his skin this season . Twister says he goes for this now and I hope he stands by it. 25/1 is about 15 points too high and must be taken.

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #1332633
    CharlesOlney
    CharlesOlney
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2050

    With connections eyeing up the Stayers do we think we’ll see The New One in the Cleeve or will they go the usual route with him taking in the Relkeel and the Champion trial at Haydock?

    I think they have to have a go at the trip at least once and not leave it to chance come the big day.

    #1332635

    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1093

    All those who fancy TNO for the stayers need to look at this stat.
    All of the last 30 winners were aged 9 or younger. :mail:

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