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Thanks Ham, very happy.
Conscious effort to cut down on the “books” this year, as although everything went right last year, it ain’t always that easy, and I won’t add much more now, if anything to this race. Good position though,and I’ll lay half of what I have on Sam, over the coming weeks, so I’ll make sure it pays it way.
Yeah Joe, spotted him last year, as he was one of the better ones from one of my systems, and that Chepstow run confirmed that. Big ask to progress to winning this, but happy enough tonight anyway.
Can not help but think Thistlecrack is value at 14/1 at the moment. Obviously returning over hurdles which he didn’t do last year. Can see a couple
Of outcomes.1)Beats ykwimh and given his problems and the fact he’s just beaten one of the favourites they choose to stay over hurdles.
2)Runs well or beats ykwimh and declared all systems go for king George. I think KG is much stronger race this year as it stands and can’t see him winning. At this point after losing the KG would they really then expect him to win a gold cup. Could easily see him reverting to hurdles.
3) runs well next week, wins king George and gold cup and I get back in my box.
Anyway new member so be nice.
That’s an interesting thought Gman. It hadn’t occurred to me that Thistlecrack might revert to hurdles on a permanent basis and I can see the logic. His jumping was edge of the seat stuff last season often taking off too early and just making it to the other side. As a backer it would have driven me bonkers.
If he did and he retains that same engine, which I can’t see why he wouldn’t, then that would really shake up the market. I’m no veterinary expert but my understanding is tendon injuries are much more difficult to come back from unaffected so I think I would need to see some evidence of his recovery before wading in but if he does revert to hurdles then 14-1 would be a massive price.
Funny market as of now and the front two are definitely beatable at this stage anyway.
Added
lil rockerfeller 25s & 20s
Lami serge 19s
The new one 50sI totally agree Ham, it’s a very odd market. I’m staying right where I am with a bet on L’Ami Serge. I’ve never been totally convinced by unowhatimeanharry neither did I buy Harry Fry’s post Stayers Hurdle analysis that the horse ran ‘flat’, that ubiquitous phrase rolled out by a trainer when his fancied runner loses.
I’m not sure what Lil Rockerfeller has done wrong to be + 20-1. That seems a good alternative bet to me. It would be great to see the New One win and whilst my heart would love to see it my head says otherwise. I think he missed his opportunity which was last year.
Perhaps this is the year in which the baton is passed to an up and coming younger horse. Good luck with your bets, particularly L’Ami Serge.
Nichols Canyon at 7/1 is very fair in what is a weak division. Apples Jade could win this but it is now likely she will run in the Mares.
NC wasn’t even 100% right last year and still won. He’s a multiple grade 1 winner and still relatively young for what he has achieved. Most under rated horse in training FACT.
Have lumped on at 7s. Good luck all
TNO running out of his skin this season . Twister says he goes for this now and I hope he stands by it. 25/1 is about 15 points too high and must be taken.
With connections eyeing up the Stayers do we think we’ll see The New One in the Cleeve or will they go the usual route with him taking in the Relkeel and the Champion trial at Haydock?
I think they have to have a go at the trip at least once and not leave it to chance come the big day.
All those who fancy TNO for the stayers need to look at this stat.
All of the last 30 winners were aged 9 or younger.
True Mike, and before yesterday only the mighty Relkeel had managed to win the International Hurdle as a 10 year old since Bird’s Nest in 1980.
All those who fancy TNO for the stayers need to look at this stat.
All of the last 30 winners were aged 9 or younger.Age probably the leading ‘stat’ for giving stats a bad name. How many horses older than 9 ran in the race? What was the % representation?
About 10 of the last 90 runners were aged 10 or older ( a quick guesstimate based on 60 seconds on Wikipedia )
I have figures for the last 20 runnings in which the age group in question made up 11.4% of the total.
At a glance, in the three runnings 2011/12/13 only one of that age ran – the 50/1 chance Powerstation.
I’ve mentioned here before that Paul Jones, who arguably started the whole stats thing with his Weatherbys Festival guide, did a fair bit of damage to his reputation in 2008 by saying that the first group to rule out in The Supreme were 7-y-olds. I fancied Captain Cee Bee (7) so dug a bit deeper and found that a ridiculously small percentage of that age had even run in the race. Just checked back – 10% representation for that age in the quoted timeline, oddly close to this one for the Stayers.
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