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Completely outpaced in the Betfair Chase…really? He was just beaten by a horse that is a freak at that course…he had the last three King George winners behind him and at no point did any of those three go past him easily and outpace him!
The King George is a race I would seriously put a line through as far as Native River is concerned because right from the first fence he was never travelling…no idea what went wrong that day but he never travelled all the way round and jumped nowhere near as good as he can…
Cheltenham is a course that plays to his strengths much more and he’s the one they all have to beat for me..
I still can’t believe he’s not favourite!
Don’t have a strong opinion in this race, will probably play a Clan Des Obeaux reverse forecast on the day or just leave it
Elegant Escape has more chance of finishing last than winning the race.
I can assure you I would not be having the biggest bet of my life on a horse who Is more likely to finish last than.win.
The team are coming to win.
They always have been.
Currently 39 bets on betfair made on the legend that is Elegant Escape the latest one just moments ago at odds of 46.0 the largest odds being at 150.0.
Numerous bookmakers have also received the win bet on the beast. I virtually never back antepost.
You must be crazy if you think all these bets are for some kind of joke.
GREATEST CHASER OF ALL TIME
READY, WILLING AND ABLE TO PRODUCE A LIFETIME BEST PERFORMANCE ON MARCH 15THANY GROUND
NO EXCUSES REQUIRED OR MADE
Have topped up Bellshill at 14s. Mullins very happy with him, he’ll stay and looks to be on the improve again this season.
Course worry is the only thing stopping me being bullish from an each way perspective, but i think at 14s this concern is factored into the price.Delighted to see Invitation Only (apparently) heading here. He’s the second biggest winner in my book, and I’m fairly confident he can outrun his odds.
Been chipping away at him for months, based on “that race” when Al Boum Photo ran out. Invitation Only was credited with an unseated rider, but he was actually brought down by Monalee, and if not for that mishap he would have been bang there. That was a hot race, so hoping he does actually trap here.
I think he will go here- I see no reason why not. Jumps, stays, probably capable of improvement. Not young or inexperienced enough to need cotton wool wrapped. He and Bellshill are my only bets in the race. I would like for Wylie to win it- seems a sporting owner, a good long time supporter of the sport and deserves a gold cup as much as anyone.
Can anyone tell me why the co-top-rated staying chaser in training Bristol De Mai is 40/1 for this?
Course form I would think; and it’s hard to think of a winner that fell in their previous race. Though that might be a blessing cos he fell early and NTD hasn’t been tempted to run him since so he will arrive nice and fresh.
Missing final prep also a blessing for Native River I believe.
Bristol De Mai has a lot of misinformation written about him.
Myth:
He needs a flat track.This is complete and utter rubbish yes his best runs for the last 2 seasons came at haydock and weatherby.
In 2016 however his best 2 runs were at cheltenham and sandown. He won a novice chase grade 1 at testing right handed sandown before running a cracker to finish 2nd in the JLT at cheltenham. He also won at Leicester that season.
In his hurdling season he won a grade 1 at chepstow.This is evidence enough that it’s a myth HE NEEDS A FLAT TRACK he doesnt.
HE NEEDS TO BE FRESH
Again a myth.
In his first season as a hirdler his best run came on his 4th and final run of the season when 3rd at the aintree festival.in a grade 1.In his novice chasing season he won on his 4th,5th and 6th start as well as finishing 2nd in the JLT in March.
There is absolutely no evidence that this horse needs to be fresh.
So we know he is fully effective at cheltenham (2nd in JLT as a novice proves that) we also know that he doesn’t need to be fresh.
So why does this 173 rated horse stand very little chance of ever winning a gold cup?
He has to lead, he has to dominate. He hates having other horses around him. This is the single most important factor with the horse.
On his first run of 2016/2017 he got beat at Carlisle in a 2 runner race when 2/5 on, the reason being he wasn’t allowed to lead and sulked.The question for me is will he be allowed to lead and dominate a gold cup without anybody asking him a question or trying to take him on.
If you think he can then he is a genuine contender who can win the gold cup.I dont think there is anyway he is going to be allowed to dominate a gold cup field especially one with Frodon and Native River in. He wont get his own way up front, he will sulk, his jumping will be took out of its rhythm and he will be well beat is my opinion.
He isnt on my radar for the race purely because I just cant see him being allowed to dominate.
edit; Even the dominate line is actually a myth as he has still won races when others have led or he has had the lead took off him.
Maybe the key to this horse is in fact that there is no key to this horse. He is in fact one of the sulkiest and most stubborn horses in training and he only wins when he wants to.
On the basis that he definitely has the ability and on his day is one of the best staying chasers in the land then 40/1 is probably a fair bet as he may just may turn up and decide he wants to be a boss on that day.
Bristol De Mai doesn’t sulk. He’s one of the most honest horses in training. He’s never been pulled up, been outside the first three only 4 times (fell once). He’s a horse who’s intrigued me for a long time and I’m as confident as any punter can be that he needs just two things to show his best
1 A long break between races – months, not weeks
2 To not make mistakes. His most powerful weapon is the rhythm he gets into; mistakes interfere with the rhythm and seem to drain his confidence.
I have no concern about the track, trip or ground for him. I do have a concern that Clan Des Obeaux could be improving at such a rate he might get a lovely tow in from Bristol De Mai and pass him on the run in.
Bristol De Mai’s biggest misfortune is being trained by Twister, a man who excels at getting horses fit but makes major errors when plotting their campaigns
Zero evidence to suggest this horse needs a break to run well.
Won on 25th november 2017 off a 21 day break.
Won on 16th Feb 2016 off a 13 day break.
Won on 23rd jan 2016 off a 25 day break
Won on 18th Nov 2015 off a 18 day break.
He has also won when fresh off a decent break。
Absolutely no evidence that the horse needs to be fresh however.
He wins when he wants. Headstrong, character doesn’t have anything to do with pulling up. No other explanation.
As for jumping then every horse alive will do better when jumping well as opposed to jumping badly. Water is wet。
You might both be right. It’s easier to jump well when bowling along in front, with a lovely view of the fences, undistracted by rivals alongside and able to pick your own takeoff spot. And may well be easier to get into your own nice galloping rhythm alone in front as potato says. Nice rhythm, nice jumping, a virtuous circle.
I agree strongly that not making many mistakes- and coping well with any you do make- is crucial in most big races and especially round these fences. Some horses can take a fence with them by the roots and be back in a rhythm within a stride or two, keeping their momentum and continuing on their merry way (Buveur d’Air a good example over hurdles). Some jump with exaggerated care thereafter, hanging in the air and not letting their feet touch a twig (Thistlecrack seems to jump a bit like this now compared with his youth) Some of the real worriers just go into meltdown and jump horribly badly..those often start making a balls of it even if the jockey gets them back into a rhythm, back on their hocks and on a perfect stride for a fence…you can nearly see their brains blowing with panic a stride or two off. You know they might shut their eyes, dive at it and belt it or run down it and screw over it and continue on miserably and the rest of the round is an ordeal for everyone concerned and there is nothing the jockey can do. BdM isn’t that bad but he isn’t one of those blithe creatures that “you couldn’t insult” as my mum puts it.
Has to lead, has to dominate, hates having other horses around him?
Did you not watch this years Betfair Chase?
Native River, and to a little extent, Might Bite, pestered him the whole way round! Native River was nearly always within half a length, a length and in fact jumped to the front and headed Bristol De Mai at least three times throughout the race…
He didn’t lead and dominate when winning the Peter Marsh….he didn’t when winning the Charlie Hall…
I agree with Steeplechasing though…at 40/1 he could be hugely overpriced!
I’m not sure what the issue with him is, but one thing is for sure…if he turns up and puts his very best in then 40/1 is silly really…
We know he loves Haydock and that is a very specialist track in my eyes but he has ran well at other tracks too in the past…
I think there may be a little something in arriving fresh…it’s ok him winning the odd time throughout his career off a short break but the demands of the Cheltenham festival is completely different..I always thought The New One ran his best festival races when being a bit fresher but NTD continued to run him and bottom him out at Haydock year after year!
Except that I didn’t say he needed a long break to win. He needs a long break to be at his best – high 170 into 180 Racing Post Rating. It would have been more accurate for me to say that he needs those long breaks after mammoth performances. Even with the temptation of the Million Bonus, if he were mine and I had really wanted to win the Gold Cup, I’d have put him away after The Betfair until March. But, as greenasgrass says, that is effectively what has happened now given his early departure in the King George.
potato, you think that ‘one of the sulkiest and most stubborn horses in training’ would never be pulled up? You think he’d have a formline like Bristol De Mai’s? And you also think he’s headstrong. You really ought to go back to race-reading 101.
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