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Jack – When I look at PP’s form I would conclude that he’s not ground dependent. So, if he performs well on all surfaces the only reasons I can see for not running the horse when citing ground as the reason for not running are:
1) He’s fragile, in that running on one surface may impact him more than another. However, we haven’t heard of any setbacks or fragility.
2) Ground is not the real reason and that some other genuine reason has come to light for not running him, and connections are deflecting the questions so as not to reveal whatever it may be to the public.
3) The comments are genuinely misleading and something more underhand is at play from a betting angle.
If their comments are to be believed, and let’s give them the benefit of the doubt and assume that’s the case, then I can only assume PP is a bit fragile hence their caution running him. To your point, perhaps he realistically has only one shot at this, like Coneygree.
Received wisdom, would suggest running a horse 3.5 weeks in advance of Cheltenham over a shorter distance (ie Red Mills Chase) would be more suitable than running over 3m+ with only 2.5 weeks to go. Hence, I can’t see him turning up at the Bobbyjo Chase either.
If that’s the case then, he will likely go straight to the Gold Cup without a run over fences since last year’s RSA. That surely, people can agree on, is far from ideal. Add to that he has yet to be tested outside of novice company (I appreciate he ran in last year’s Red Mills Chase – but that was a very small field and he was receiving weight all round) over fences, his form over fences is difficult to assess.
Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s a good horse. He clearly likes Cheltenham. I think he goes on all surfaces. I would like to see the horse race more only so I can enjoy watching him. If he wins the Gold Cup I wouldn’t be surprised nor disappointed (perhaps a little bit because I would like to see Might Bite rise from the ashes). All I’m suggesting is the support he’s receiving seems disproportionate based on what we’ve seen on the track.
Coneygree went out to win the GC on his 4h chase start rated 166 at joint 2nd fav, having run 3 novice races that season…on pancake flat tracks, beating Dell A’rca, Warden Hill and Houblon des Obeaux into second place respectively.
PP will go out on his 6th start rated 169.
Laurina is 3rd fav for the tough, often tactical, blue riband of hurdling and she is basically a novice…she never saw her rival in her racecourse canter this season.
Penhill will be sent out to try to win the biggest staying hurdling prize in the land again, “the girl who works with him” presumably having spent all this time carefully sellotaping his legs back on. Benie des Dieux will be wheeled out to defend her crown probably with no prep.
Connections said of Percy that he wasn’t running this weekend because they didn’t need to, which is probably true. He’s had a racecourse spin in the Galmoy and perhaps he is jumping fences well and confidently enough at home for them not to need to give him more practice over fences in a race.
They only care about Cheltenham, they don’t give a stuff about other races. There are only so many 3 mile chases in a horse’s legs, back and wind so perhaps they are hoping to get 3 or four goes at this race, like Best Mate, rather than one glorious multi cup winning year like Sizing John.
CNC, it’s very possible he is fragile, i wouldn’t know for sure. One thing i will say is he ran 8 times over hurdles 2 seasons back and 6 while a novice chaser.
That doesn’t scream to me fragile, but who knows that could’ve changed. I personally think the lack of runs this year has been done to the unseasonably dry + good ground.
He’s a two time festival winner i think he’s deserves plenty of support.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!A much more traditional preparation adopted by Nicholls with Clan Des Obeaux.
The point I’m trying to make is based on race form an objective punter would have to rate the form shown by Clan Des Obeaux higher than that shown by Presenting Percy. Moreover, Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden have now learnt a lot about his horse under race conditions which has to serve them well come the big day.
I know Clan Des Obeaux didn’t beat any big names today but it was hard not to be impressed with performance. He travelled well, jumped well, and showed a nice turn of foot when asked.
I thought both Clan Des Obeaux and Cyrname were outstanding today and surely one of them is the king george 2019 winner.
However back to the gold cup and It remains
ALL ABOUT THE LEGEND
New gold cup favourite on betfair Clan Des Obeaux.
Percy’s drifting alarmingly today.
The stayers hurdle is looking more and more likely for percy
Would say the drift is due to his lack of preparation not switching races. He’s still 50/1 for the stayers but only 2/1 NRNB so it would be a miracle if he went stayers
Potato up to his usual Ham!
CDO was very impressive yesterday.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!CDO v impressive against a decent yardstick, tho thought the runner-up’s jumping was not good. Obvious bet for the GC, tho would love to see PP win for the small trainer.
Nicky Henderson said today;
Nico [de Boinville] rode Might Bite on Saturday and thought he was in terrific form – really great. I was thrilled with what I saw too. He really was very good.
He’s lacked rhythm and his jumping hasn’t had the fluidity there normally is, so that’s what we’re hoping comes back. I know he’s run poorly, and on this season’s form he deserves to be 20-1, but it’s definitely not been a mental problem and we’ve freshened him up and changed a few things.
He gives really encouraging words and makes might bite fans grow in confidence before immediately knocking them back down by reminding us the horse can no longer jump fences.
My 2 against the field are Native River and Presenting Percy. When PP easily won the RSA I immediately ploughed back some of my winnings for next years Gold Cup and when I saw that Native River was 14/1 prior to winning last year Gold Cup I backed him too. I have not seen anything since then to put me off my selections.
Improving horse that he is I cannot fancy Clan Des Obeaux at all, I wouldn’t back him at 10/1.
His best piece of form going left handed was when finishing a well beaten 4th of 5 in the Betfair Chase run on good ground. I cannot have it that he improved a stone in the 4 weeks leading up to the King George. For me he will not stay the trip at Cheltenham and is a place lay.The Irish horses aside from PP don’t look good enough aside from Kemboy but there does not appear to be much stable confidence. Thistlecrack’s best chance was in the season he won the KG, he won’t be winning this years race at age 11. Elegant Escape has more chance of finishing last than winning the race.
Irrespective of ground conditions I expect to see Native River attempt to make all the running once more. He does not need soft ground as many say, he finished within a couple of lengths of Sizing John in the 2017 GC run on good ground at the end of a tough campaign that saw him win both the Hennessy and Welsh National.
I expect Presenting Percy will be held up in around 5/6th place and delivered to make his challenge to Native River coming up the home straight with the other runners strung out like washing.
While you are correct to say Native River doesn’t need good ground; you can just see him getting outpaced running downhill before the turn. Can see horses like Frodon skipping away from him. Think Percy will be produced late enough also. Native River will stay though and I see there being a good battle on here between Kemboy, Frodon, Clan Des Obeaux, Bellshill, Al Boum Photo and Road to Respect and I can see them all going too early and running out of juice with Percy powering up the hill and Native River staying on to pick off a few of them for a place. I don’t think Native River has a prayer of winning unless it’s soft and while I think Percy will win, and while I have backed Percy last year and the year before at the festival, 3/1 is crap value and I wont be getting involved at that price; much rather have an each way play here. Bellshill at 10/1 each way NRNB is my first bet in the race; I will have another bet but not until the day.
Take a look at the 2017 Gold Cup. This was run on good ground in a time faster than standard. For the entirety of the race Native River was within 3 lengths of the lead. He led or shared the lead coming downhill before the turn. He is rated 8 pounds higher now.
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