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Maybe something in it though as a lot of the field have shortened across the board…
William Hill in particular have a very strange market now…
Footpad 6/4
Petit Mouchoir 2/1
Saint Calvados 11/4
Sceau Royal 5/1Personally thought it sounded like a negative update on Penhill…this is what was said…
“The aim was to get him there – we planned on getting him to Cheltenham and it’s a tough ask to win that race. If he runs well and comes out sound that will be good enough for us and we can look to Punchestown.
It is hard to get out of novice class to open class. He is going to have to do that, but then his flat rating is high…”
Just thought I’d bob back and correct my mistake and argument from earlier on regards the race time compared to last year…
Seems I was lazy and did get it wrong just assuming it was the same time as last seasons and both were run on soft ground…
On further looking in to it, there is definitely a case that time wise it was s much better performance than last season as comparing times for all the other races on the respective cards nearly all the 2017 races were run between 10 and 15 seconds quicker whilst this race was within a tenth of a second of being the same…
There was a bit more pace up front with Speredek, Frodon and Cue Card all forcing it between themselves early on…
I’m still not happy Top Notch was 100% right and gave his true running as it was his first defeat going right handed and he never jumped or travelled like he did last time at Ascot and I don’t believe that was due to stepping up in grade or being out of his comfort zone, just thought he was really disappointing…
Am happy to rate Cue Card maybe pushing up to around mid 170’s..
Agree with what Jack says there…
May disagree with the merit of the performances ratings wise but 100% agree regarding Top Notch and Jacob/Nico…
NDB in another league to Jacob for me…
The time of the race was a tenth of a second quicker than when Cue Card won it last time…
He beat the 156 rated Shantou Flyer 15 lengths…
Is Shantou Flyer a better horse than Frodon and Top Notch? I don’t think he is so to me those two slightly underperformed while Cue Card probably ran to a similar mark as 2017…low 170’s at best..
Not news I wanted to hear with Yanworth being real big on Sam Spinner!
Serious danger, can’t believe it’s taken them so long to choose this race…doesn’t look like the trainers decision either…
Glad I’m going to this…my first ever festival…as had been said…shaping up to be a cracking race!
I’d agree with those being a bit more on the cautious side ratings wise..
As has been said…Coney Island never got involved…and whether it’s looked on as an excuse or not it appeared to me Top Notch was a fair bit short of his win here in November…he didn’t look comfortable from a long way out and never seemed to get into the jumping rythmn he did when beating Double Shuffle and Frodon quite easily…no problem with Frodon running much better against Top Notch as Sean Bowen had him way too far back last time and by the time he made his effort Top Notch was away and gone…ridden more prominently he was always going to be closer to that rival….
That’s two of the top three in the betting not really showed…
The angle that the race was run at a ferocious pace to give the ratings more credit is an interesting one..
Comparing three races from the November meeting to yesterday time wise reveals the following..
Top Notch won in November in a time 10 seconds quicker than Waiting Patiently…
Lil Rockerfeller won the 2m 3 and a 1/2f hurdle 12 seconds quicker than Le Patriote…
Toviere won the 3m handicap chase 9 seconds quicker than Regal Encore…
I’m no time or sectionals expert but those three race times would suggest to me the going was obviously a bit slower than it was in November but it certainly wasn’t a startling performance time wise, or am I seeing something wrong?
PP must have clipped him back in Steve as he’s showing as 10/3 with them now…
I agree with jasolong…Cheltenham is what gets me going…it’s why I much prefer jumps to flat. I know many don’t feel that way but there is plenty that do.
Aintree is ok but to me just never feels even 10% as good as Cheltenham…
I don’t know whether Ruth Jefferson was misquoted or not? The interview she did with Nick Luck on RUK was very fair and she spoke very well…she said it’s not the be all and end all to them, which is fair enough..
If the ground has a bit of cut in though and the horse is well enough in himself I don’t see why they wouldn’t give it a go? I’m not a fan of Let’s save it for another day, because what if that day doesn’t come? I don’t think it’s any good saying we think he’s better on flatter tracks without seeing evidence that he doesn’t act at somewhere like Cheltenham…
That’s what the owner seems to be hinting that the King George is his big target as he’s a winter ground horse who’s arguably better on flatter tracks…
Think I might cash out the Cheltenham bet for profit as I can’t see him going there reading the reaction of owner and trainer and from what Brian Hughes said after Kempton and today about the ground…
Think that’s a bit of a disrespectful comment from Ruth Jefferson though saying everyone is obsessed and they are not fussed! I’ll give her the benefit of the doubt though in what will have been a very difficult and emotional week!
The stewards did look at it but said no riding offence was committed and it didn’t improve Waiting Patiently ‘s finishing position, which I fully agree with!
Can only echo what’s been said already! Brilliant race and tremendous performances from the front two…weight of my money seemed to weigh down Top Notch who I was never happy with from some way out!
Really hope we get to see Waiting Patiently run at Cheltenham, would be a crying shame if he didn’t go there…up the North!
To be fair Steve that three and a half length winning margin in the Peterborough chase you say wouldn’t be good enough to take this could easily have been ten times that distance!
All the other three jockeys in the race were pushing their mounts from at least 4 out while Jacob was sat motionless until after the last where he then quickened clear with ease…
Those saying this is like WP’s Cheltenham as he may skip the festival, this may well be Top Notch’s best chance of a big race…
As I said earlier he’s 5 from 5 going right handed and just 5 from 14 left…0 from 4 at Cheltenham (two festival 2nds I know) and 0 from 2 at Aintree so this could well be his best chance…
Top Notch did come up against Smad Place when he was rated 164 and hammered him…and Double Shuffle who is now rated 166 was no match…and importantly…Top Notch is an improving 7 year old, not declining 12 year old…
He’s also 5/5 going right handed so has never failed against a 165+ rated horse going that way round!
See VLR misses this and goes to Ascot instead…as someone who backed Blaklion the other day I’m happy as I think he was a huge danger..sorry to any that may have lost out though…
Think it’s a shame they’ve ditched Gavin Sheehan for STD…nothing against Sam but really rate Sheehan and thought he’s rode it well the last twice!
Would absolutely love to see Waiting Patiently win it for the North! He’s improving all the time and a classy horse but I just feel Top Notch will be just a bit too good!
He’s 3/3 at Ascot and the form of his last run over CD doesn’t look too shabby…trouncing Double Shuffle who went on to finish 2nd in the King George on his next start….arguably not the greatest King George of all time but still better form than most in this field bring to the table….Frodon was well beaten back in 3rd that day too and has since ran a good second and bolted up last time…
Top Notch to have too much class and win with a bit to spare for me..
